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Ethiopia Transformative Development

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In Ethiopia the whole electric grid in 2007 was ~800MW. For over 70 million people. In comparison the UK electric grid is around 75,000MW for 60 million people.

But now the Ethiopian grid is probably around 3,000 MW as some big hydro power plants have been completed. And if you look at the other hydro plants already under construction and planned for before 2020 there is around 11,000MW more. The country is also developing wind and geothermal into the 1000's of MW.

So it is fair to say imo that by 2020 the Ethiopian grid will be at ~15,000MW. To support this there is also a large construction effort underway on the power lines, substations and the rest of the distribution system.

I was reading about how transformative it is in developing nations when the power lines come in. Like in the Sudan and parts of Pakistan where electricity is reaching. One example is villagers were having to walk two hours each day to get fresh water. Now with electricity and water pumps, that water is pumped right to their village.

Another example is electric heat for the winter. Authorities notice that villages with electric heat the vegetation surrounding the village grows back. As the villagers do not need to cut down the trees in the winter for heating.

I feel in most Western nations we have been forgetting where our national wealth comes from. Because we take the railroads, power plants, irrigation systems, steel mills and so on for granted. And start thinking about financial products or innovative management or marginal tax levels.

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In Ethiopia the whole electric grid in 2007 was ~800MW. For over 70 million people. In comparison the UK electric grid is around 75,000MW for 60 million people.

But now the Ethiopian grid is probably around 3,000 MW as some big hydro power plants have been completed. And if you look at the other hydro plants already under construction and planned for before 2020 there is around 11,000MW more. The country is also developing wind and geothermal into the 1000's of MW.

So it is fair to say imo that by 2020 the Ethiopian grid will be at ~15,000MW. To support this there is also a large construction effort underway on the power lines, substations and the rest of the distribution system.

I was reading about how transformative it is in developing nations when the power lines come in. Like in the Sudan and parts of Pakistan where electricity is reaching. One example is villagers were having to walk two hours each day to get fresh water. Now with electricity and water pumps, that water is pumped right to their village.

Another example is electric heat for the winter. Authorities notice that villages with electric heat the vegetation surrounding the village grows back. As the villagers do not need to cut down the trees in the winter for heating.

I feel in most Western nations we have been forgetting where our national wealth comes from. Because we take the railroads, power plants, irrigation systems, steel mills and so on for granted. And start thinking about financial products or innovative management or marginal tax levels.

This is great. The development of infrastructure in Africa will surely help to reduce the human catastrophes we've seen in recent decades. There's another famine developing in Niger due to droughts. No one should have to suffer starvation. I hope we'll see the end of this hideous inequality sometime soon.

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This is great. The development of infrastructure in Africa will surely help to reduce the human catastrophes we've seen in recent decades. There's another famine developing in Niger due to droughts. No one should have to suffer starvation. I hope we'll see the end of this hideous inequality sometime soon.

One interesting thing is the popularity of the leaders pushing development. Even though they are usually protrayed in the western press as dictators, to their own people they are popular. Like our leaders were when they brought development in the 30's-60's.

Some villager whose village gets pumped water and electricity is going to be a supporter for life. So this imo is also leading to political stability. And many of the human catastrophes have been caused by civil war.

Two others things that are tranforming most developing nations is the movement from rural areas to large urban centers, and falling birthrates.

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Are the Chinese paying for all of this? They are out to secure the natural resources of the continent.

If so, at least it sounds more progressive than European imperialism.

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One interesting thing is the popularity of the leaders pushing development. Even though they are usually protrayed in the western press as dictators, to their own people they are popular. Like our leaders were when they brought development in the 30's-60's.

Some villager whose village gets pumped water and electricity is going to be a supporter for life. So this imo is also leading to political stability. And many of the human catastrophes have been caused by civil war.

Two others things that are tranforming most developing nations is the movement from rural areas to large urban centers, and falling birthrates.

Kind of related solar power is on the rise too, i've seen it close when holidaying in India.

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Are the Chinese paying for all of this? They are out to secure the natural resources of the continent.

If so, at least it sounds more progressive than European imperialism.

Most of the development is the Chinese. Its mind blowing how they are all over the continent of Africa working on development. The same companies that did/are doing the development in China are doing the construction projects in Africa. Some of the companies were formed in China for specific projects, but when they finished that project they are looking for more projects and to use their expertise.

I think you used the perfect word: progressive. Real progress is building the national infrastructure.

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Kind of related solar power is on the rise too, i've seen it close when holidaying in India.

One application of solar is in places where the national electric grid has not reached yet. Which is countless villages in the developing world.

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Most of the development is the Chinese. Its mind blowing how they are all over the continent of Africa working on development. The same companies that did/are doing the development in China are doing the construction projects in Africa. Some of the companies were formed in China for specific projects, but when they finished that project they are looking for more projects and to use their expertise.

I think you used the perfect word: progressive. Real progress is building the national infrastructure.

True but the still corrupt mindsets of African managers and leaders decimate these projects after they have been handed over to the massive detriment of their countries!

Been some good progs on this recently, road/rail projects (money) theft/corruption by those africans left in charge!

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Most of the development is the Chinese. Its mind blowing how they are all over the continent of Africa working on development. The same companies that did/are doing the development in China are doing the construction projects in Africa. Some of the companies were formed in China for specific projects, but when they finished that project they are looking for more projects and to use their expertise.

I think you used the perfect word: progressive. Real progress is building the national infrastructure.

The Chinese are neither imperialist or samaritans there - there are there to make money and do what multionational do (e.g. Conoco Phillips in Indonesia, Shell in Nigeria, what western firm wanted when they go to setup their factory in ShenZhen 30 years ago etc). The main differences is that they are willing to carry out infrastructure development as part of the deal (normally Chinese bank provide soft loan to the Ethiopian etc government, who then use the money to pay for the chinese infrastructure engineering firm. Ethiopian government then gets money (whether fair share or not, it is up to one's perspective) from the natural resources to pay those money back.

I consider chinese involvement there to be overl all positive. The most important point is their ability to build infrastructure (I am afraid not always top quality, but normally works) on the cheap and allow these countries to go on the path of industrialisation. A similar power plant would probably cost a lot more if built by GE or Siemens - to begin with, GE/Siemens engineer would demand a good relocation package before he/she would go there while chinese engineers just live in dominatories. Chinese strength has always been the word 'cheap' and that is the main benefit they bring to Africa. It would be up to Africa nations to ensure that they win more than they lose out of the game and countries with good governance such as Ghana will probably get more out of the chinese than, say Zimbabwe.

It also encourages two ways trade and enterpreneurial african are now increasingly relocate to China to facilitate the trade. The entrepreneur (and many of these elite and educated) are likely to benefit from the first wave of chinese involvement. My hope is that with rising prosperity, it will eventually lead to overall properity - people rich and have electricity to watch football and talks about imporiving governance during the half time break).

A good 2 side views:

http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/465

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This is great. The development of infrastructure in Africa will surely help to reduce the human catastrophes we've seen in recent decades. There's another famine developing in Niger due to droughts. No one should have to suffer starvation. I hope we'll see the end of this hideous inequality sometime soon.

So long as they keep breeding like rabbits they'll continue to have problems feeding themselves in Ethiopia.

Not just above average, not just high, but the highest.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

Sorry, not Ethiopia, But Niger.

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In Ethiopia the whole electric grid in 2007 was ~800MW. For over 70 million people. In comparison the UK electric grid is around 75,000MW for 60 million people.

But now the Ethiopian grid is probably around 3,000 MW as some big hydro power plants have been completed. And if you look at the other hydro plants already under construction and planned for before 2020 there is around 11,000MW more. The country is also developing wind and geothermal into the 1000's of MW.

So it is fair to say imo that by 2020 the Ethiopian grid will be at ~15,000MW. To support this there is also a large construction effort underway on the power lines, substations and the rest of the distribution system.

I was reading about how transformative it is in developing nations when the power lines come in. Like in the Sudan and parts of Pakistan where electricity is reaching. One example is villagers were having to walk two hours each day to get fresh water. Now with electricity and water pumps, that water is pumped right to their village.

Another example is electric heat for the winter. Authorities notice that villages with electric heat the vegetation surrounding the village grows back. As the villagers do not need to cut down the trees in the winter for heating.

I feel in most Western nations we have been forgetting where our national wealth comes from. Because we take the railroads, power plants, irrigation systems, steel mills and so on for granted. And start thinking about financial products or innovative management or marginal tax levels.

Thanks for this. It is good to hear of some inspiring changes for the better.

I worked for a charity in Uganda for a short while. We were working with the weather infrastructure. 50 years ago there were 300+ weather stations, now there are about 15, the rest mostly destroyed. One of the English farmers I spoke to there, who was living in Uganda, recounted a tale of an irrigation system for sugar cane, that was wiped out in a couple of days by various plonkers ploughing the field straight through the irrigation pipes. £25 million in damages, likely never to be repaired.

I also did some work in Rwanda, the project seems successful there, but now the political system looks more unstable, and it is all likely a huge waste of time if there is another civil war.

It is a lot easier to improve things in the UK than in Africa.

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So long as they keep breeding like rabbits they'll continue to have problems feeding themselves in Ethiopia.

Not just above average, not just high, but the highest.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

Sorry, not Ethiopia, But Niger.

110 years ago Ethiopia was one of the richest countries in africa; the only to withstand invasion. The fertility was legendary. Their climate seems to have changed fairly viscously

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The Chinese are neither imperialist or samaritans there - there are there to make money and do what multionational do (e.g. Conoco Phillips in Indonesia, Shell in Nigeria, what western firm wanted when they go to setup their factory in ShenZhen 30 years ago etc). The main differences is that they are willing to carry out infrastructure development as part of the deal (normally Chinese bank provide soft loan to the Ethiopian etc government, who then use the money to pay for the chinese infrastructure engineering firm. Ethiopian government then gets money (whether fair share or not, it is up to one's perspective) from the natural resources to pay those money back.

I consider chinese involvement there to be overl all positive. The most important point is their ability to build infrastructure (I am afraid not always top quality, but normally works) on the cheap and allow these countries to go on the path of industrialisation. A similar power plant would probably cost a lot more if built by GE or Siemens - to begin with, GE/Siemens engineer would demand a good relocation package before he/she would go there while chinese engineers just live in dominatories. Chinese strength has always been the word 'cheap' and that is the main benefit they bring to Africa. It would be up to Africa nations to ensure that they win more than they lose out of the game and countries with good governance such as Ghana will probably get more out of the chinese than, say Zimbabwe.

It also encourages two ways trade and enterpreneurial african are now increasingly relocate to China to facilitate the trade. The entrepreneur (and many of these elite and educated) are likely to benefit from the first wave of chinese involvement. My hope is that with rising prosperity, it will eventually lead to overall properity - people rich and have electricity to watch football and talks about imporiving governance during the half time break).

A good 2 side views:

http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/465

Yes that is the difference with the Chinese investment. They are able to do infrastructure investment and building in addition. It makes an incredible offer for resource rich nations. I get the feeling the current African leaders are generally getting a good deal for their people. The best way to stay in power and keep the peace is to improve the standard of living markedly.

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Thanks for this. It is good to hear of some inspiring changes for the better.

I worked for a charity in Uganda for a short while. We were working with the weather infrastructure. 50 years ago there were 300+ weather stations, now there are about 15, the rest mostly destroyed. One of the English farmers I spoke to there, who was living in Uganda, recounted a tale of an irrigation system for sugar cane, that was wiped out in a couple of days by various plonkers ploughing the field straight through the irrigation pipes. £25 million in damages, likely never to be repaired.

I also did some work in Rwanda, the project seems successful there, but now the political system looks more unstable, and it is all likely a huge waste of time if there is another civil war.

It is a lot easier to improve things in the UK than in Africa.

For this generation of infrastructure I'm assuming they will get the Chinese to run them for the next 25 years at least. In the long run Africa will have to learn to run the facilities themselves. The way I would do this is what Sudan's leader Omar al-Bashir is doing. The first wave projects the Sudanese engineering companies do 20% of the work. In the second wave projects they do 40% of the work. The plans on the table for the next waves have 60%.

I think it is something that has to be carried out gradually over a period of like 60 years - maybe even longer. Not the disastrous plan of handing over ownership right away like in Zimbabwe

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110 years ago Ethiopia was one of the richest countries in africa; the only to withstand invasion. The fertility was legendary. Their climate seems to have changed fairly viscously

it is still a very green fertile country, in the most part. the north is very arid, but elsewhere it is like paradise.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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