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Ash4781

Why House Prices Must Fall Another 25%

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100006841/why-house-prices-must-fall-by-25-per-cent-or-more/

A n increase in the supply of properties for sale helped reduce house prices marginally by 0.6 per cent this month, according to Halifax. But, while Britain?s biggest mortgage lender predicts prices will end the year ?broadly unchanged? much bigger falls are likely as the coalition government presses ahead with the biggest spending cuts in living memory and rising unemployment brings tens of thousands of new forced sellers into the market.

Is this not the guy that said last week the best thing he did was get a huge mortgage ?

Maybe I imagined it lol

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A n increase in the supply of properties for sale helped reduce house prices marginally by 0.6 per cent this month, according to Halifax. But, while Britain?s biggest mortgage lender predicts prices will end the year ?broadly unchanged? much bigger falls are likely as the coalition government presses ahead with the biggest spending cuts in living memory and rising unemployment brings tens of thousands of new forced sellers into the market.

Is this not the guy that said last week the best thing he did was get a huge mortgage ?

Maybe I imagined it lol

Maybe you imagined his huge endowment? :blink:

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Is this not the guy that said last week the best thing he did was get a huge mortgage ?

Maybe I imagined it lol

No, I read it too. But if I remember right, it was a 100% mortgage over 20 years ago.

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Comment from Escoville

In the short term, anything might happen, plus or minus 30%. In the long term, real estate is at a premium on a crowded island. In 30 years' time, our grandchildren will be laughing at prices of around 150,000, just as our children laugh at the 5,000 we paid for our first house and we laugh at the 500 you had to pay for a good house in the 1930s. Property has outperformed gold by many orders of magnitude.

Reckons it's possible for pwoperdee to go up 30% short term !!

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Comment from Escoville

Reckons it's possible for pwoperdee to go up 30% short term !!

Not with deflation lurking it won't.

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Reckons it's possible for pwoperdee to go up 30% short term !!

No doubt funded by pent-up buyers with bottomless pockets.

Home loans, who needs them?

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Comment from hamptoncourt:

...

One thing is absolutely certain - there is a concerted effort by members of the housepricecrash website to comment on as many news items as possible in an effort to paint an overly pessimistic picture of the market. Don't forget, the majority of these are ex-owners and BTL landlords who cashed in and are hoping to buy back in at bargain basement prices. Now the Times charges they have moved onto the Telegraph comments section in greater numbers. This is a fact and should always be taken into account when reading comments.

Cripes, we've been rumbled.

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Not with deflation lurking it won't.

He/she further adds

in 30 years' time, our grandchildren will be laughing at prices of around 150,000

Yes. But not in the way you think.

"Grandad tell us the story about how you paid £150,00 for a studio flat in Nottingham. Always makes me laugh."

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It still seems a little strange to me that Nationwide's monthly figures have yet to go negative again, although I accept that there appears to be a downward trend there -- if two points can be called a 'trend'.

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Can't multitask? I had the Tour de France on itv4 at the same time as bein on t'web. :unsure:

As I said on another thread this sort of concentration-dependent multi-tasking is very bad for the brain. TV or radio (except classical music) on, internet off. The brain doesn't process word streams in parallel, intsead it rapidly switches between one and the other which knackers it.

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Comment from hamptoncourt:

Cripes, we've been rumbled.

We should thank that person for advertising this place. Now more people will know it exists. Even the BBC did it yesterday apparently when the gave this forum as a source for a chart. :)

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The Italian job was on. The classic one.

Where else do you get Ferraris, Minis, The Alps, 60s cool, Benny Hill, Irene Handl, Noel Coward, and Michael Caine wrapped up into a great comic romp.

"Mr Bridger will DRIVE THEM INTO THE SEA."

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Mr Cowie has got to take the award as person least likely to be personal finance editor ( or most likely depending on your view of the brightness of jouranlists)... it apears his justification for the theory that prices must fall by 25% in the future is that supply is currently running 23% over demand......... even if you set aside the difficulty of judging demand levels, or the fact that supply and demand are movable feasts within the whole direction of house prices, or that the % of oversupply has no correlation to the % of fall... you are still left with the feeling that he's wrong... after all there are ALWAYS more house for sale than there are buyers at any one time.... and yet when prices rise he should really be out there screaming... why prices will fall by X% ( X being whatever the oversupply figure is any given month).

He would have been much better off noting simply that a widening gap between supply and demand indicates a weakness in the market which might lead to further falls... but thats not much of a headline I suppose.

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Scunnered B)

Definitely not me, but maybe you've got a good idea there. Instead of HPC enthusiasts posting comments about how it's high time for prices to fall, it might be possible to wage psychological war by posing as people whose belief in the strength of the housing market is patently insane.

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Definitely not me, but maybe you've got a good idea there. Instead of HPC enthusiasts posting comments about how it's high time for prices to fall, it might be possible to wage psychological war by posing as people whose belief in the strength of the housing market is patently insane.

Dear Sir

I see those doom-mongering idiots on housepricecrash.co.uk are continuing to post their relentless negative views on the housing market citing a lack of credit availability and recession. What they fail to understand is the basic rule of supply and demand. Everybody wants to live in a decent house and so the price of these will keep going up. No question.

Yours

Mr Common Sense

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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