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Ftse 100 Has Best Day In Five Weeks As Investors Switch Focus From Double-Dip

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/ftse100/7875970/FTSE-100-has-best-day-in-five-weeks-as-investors-switch-focus-from-double-dip.html

The index of London's leading shares closed up 2.9pc at 4965 as investors shrugged off the misery caused last week by unexpectedly poor US economic data and fears over eurozone stability.

Following a US holiday on Monday, data yesterday showed the US services sector grew in June but at a slower rate than expected.

"Despite the recent shift in economic data releases that have disappointed investors and renewed fears of another recession, the underlying fundamentals do not yet point to a double-dip," said Angus Campbell, head of sales at Capital Spreads.

"The economic numbers out today confirm that the economy is expanding and growth, while possibly slowing, will not go back into the red as things stand.

"With miners leading the way, this has given the bulls an excuse to get back into the market that has fallen significantly in the last few weeks and now looks attractive to many investors."

Excellent headline especially as the FTSE is down about 1% this morning.

It's the fantasy recovery.

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ftse.gif

Ignore the daily gyrations and the media's explanations. The longer term charts give a better view of where we are heading - you dont' even need to listen to the news. Each time those moving averages cross (red and yellow) they signal buy or sell. The FTSE - looks like a sell now being activated.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/ftse100/7875970/FTSE-100-has-best-day-in-five-weeks-as-investors-switch-focus-from-double-dip.html

Excellent headline especially as the FTSE is down about 1% this morning.

It's the fantasy recovery.

I do find it rather amusing, seems like trading for the sake of trading. Still the brokers make money on each trade so lucky them

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The focus has switched back to the double dip (Elephant in the living room) this morning:

FTSE 100 4918.76-0.93%

Wheels wobbling more and more each day to the point where they are about to fall off completely. Market become increasingly confused and schizophrenic. Long sinnce time to be out of stocks completely (like Jim "Jimbo" Rogers says is due to the imminent financial meltdown in the West).

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We seem to be seeing bunching of economic news into good days and bad days. Sentiment switches overnight - one week it's all about recovery and improving statistics, the next week it's all about double-dip recession and the recovery losing momentum, and the following week it's all rosy again. I'm beginning to wonder whether some big players who can invest on a scale that can manipulate a company's share price are also colluding with others to bunch economic news into good and bad days to suit. I don't mean the hard news and statistics as such, more the opinion stuff, like 'Top property expert X sees strong growth over next two years' sort of thing.

Edited by blankster

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Excellent headline especially as the FTSE is down about 1% this morning.

What is the correlation between the FTSE and house prices?

Have you found a link?

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We seem to be seeing bunching of economic news into good days and bad days. Sentiment switches overnight - one week it's all about recovery and improving statistics, the next week it's all about double-dip recession and the recovery losing momentum, and the following week it's all rosy again. I'm beginning to wonder whether some big players who can invest on a scale that can manipulate a company's share price are also colluding with others to bunch economic news into good and bad days to suit. I don't mean the hard news and statistics as such, more the opinion stuff, like 'Top property expert X sees strong growth over next two years' sort of thing.

Completely agree, there is nothing new that really should cause such a strong bounce or decline

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Yesterday the market was oversold, today it's 1.3% down...do those traders really have a plan?!

Basically market movement noise. The trend and fundamentals don't look good to me.

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What is the correlation between the FTSE and house prices?

Have you found a link?

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/ftse-will-break-6000.aspx

The healthy stockmarket

“What actually happened last time house prices fell for a sustained period?” wonders Patrick Hosking in The Times. “Curiously, the stock- market weathered things remarkably well.” Shares initially fell about 14%. “But,” observes Hosking, “from the autumn of 1990, less than a quarter of the way through the property downturn and with the wider recession still in its infancy, [shares] bottomed out. By the time house prices really started to plummet, share values were already rallying.” One reason for this, as Hosking notes, is the fact that when sterling was ejected from the exchange-rate mechanism in 1992, interest rates were allowed to fall, as was the pound. From late 1992 onwards, a falling currency triggered a turnaround in the outlook for corporate profits. Exporters were delighted, of course, because their products became more competitive abroad, but domestic companies also benefited. Not only were overseas competitors’ imports suddenly more costly and easier to undercut, but imported inflation gave the firms better pricing power, which led to margin expansion. Not even all the sectors exposed to housing suffered. As Hosking explains, “expected casualties such as the mortgage banks were virtually immune in the 1989-95 slide: Abbey National soared serenely on throughout the period, its shares rising from 150p to 500p”. This time around, the banks could also remain unscathed. Average loan to value (LTV) ratios are reportedly much lower than in 1989, implying the housing market would have to fall even further before negative equity kicks in and the banks face an actual loss on their books.

From 2005.

Although the FTSE is linked to the economy.

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BP.L shares surging again this morning taking the sting out of FTSE fall (and pushing it up yesterday) when many people on here said they were finished when they went below 3 quid. Announced in the paper today (at no surprise) is news that coalition are drawing up contingency plans to bail out BP if breakup becomes an option (i.e. if the relief wells fail next month). So you should of filled ya boots last week as it's always been clear there is a taxpayer backstop with this company.

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I do find it rather amusing, seems like trading for the sake of trading. Still the brokers make money on each trade so lucky them

and the Gov't gets .5% on every buy

Edited by robo1968

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BP.L shares surging again this morning taking the sting out of FTSE fall (and pushing it up yesterday) when many people on here said they were finished when they went below 3 quid. Announced in the paper today (at no surprise) is news that coalition are drawing up contingency plans to bail out BP if breakup becomes an option (i.e. if the relief wells fail next month). So you should of filled ya boots last week as it's always been clear there is a taxpayer backstop with this company.

Boots filled at 310 :rolleyes:

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I often take a look at the ftse 100 during my break at work. Whether there is an economic recovery on the forefront or double dip imminent or the end of the world as we know it you really cant deny that the ftse 100 is actually becoming a bit predictable. As was stated in a previous post it appears news seems to come in chunks of good/bad in my opinion signalling no one has a slight clue whats going on. However with that being said you only have to look at the general trends of the ftse to make some sound asumptions (even if there has been mentions of this good/bad news trying to manipulate the stats):

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE#chart3:symbol=^ftse;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

It's looking quite like the stone skipping across the water, a nice bounce every so often but regardless it is always running out of steam. We seem to be getting a nice jump just as we think the game is over, which slowly gets eaten away. These jumps are having to occur more often as the skips become shorter. I would probably say it is going to come to a point where no news can stop the inevitable, the ftse is going to hit a unresponsive point.. whether it chooses to slowly build up or fall regardless is out of most peoples hands I would say. I really am not seeing the temporary fixes stopping the push down.

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Boots filled at 310 :rolleyes:

This is brave but it's how you make money. BP's is now also "well on target" if you pardon the pun. Reported today that it's first relief well is now only 300 mtrs away. So you might not get a dividend this year or next. So what? You got BP cheap as chips.

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in my opinion signalling no one has a slight clue whats going on.

I think you are right, no one can trade this market with the level of volatility currently.

Confirmed by this article below.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-08/hedge-funds-frozen-in-headlights-scale-back-trading-in-perilous-markets.html

Hedge-fund managers, Wall Street’s best compensated and supposedly smartest investors, are dazed and confused.

Reeling from the worst second-quarter performance in a decade, hedge funds have scaled back trading as they struggle to figure out where markets are headed amid sometimes vicious crosscurrents in stock, commodities and other markets, according to brokers and managers.

“There’s a degree of being frozen in the headlights, of not knowing what sectors to emphasize, of what securities to emphasize,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management LLC, a Bedford Hills, New York-based firm with $2 billion in hedge funds and conventional stock funds.

Hedge-fund managers, who oversee $1.67 trillion in assets, are reluctant to put money to work as they are buffeted by a wide range of often conflicting political and economic forces, from fiscal policy in Europe and the U.S., to what regulations will be imposed on the financial-services and energy industries, to the growth prospects in China. In turn, smaller and fewer trades may make it harder for funds to rebound from losses incurred since May, when the industry suffered its worst decline in 18 months.

“For many people, it’s a frustrating market given the high volatility and low volumes,” said Aaron Garvey, portfolio manager at MKP Capital Management LLC, a New York-based hedge fund overseeing $3.5 billion. “We are seeing strong opposing forces in the markets, which makes generating strong convictions difficult for the medium- and long-term.”

Holding Cash

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I think you are right, no one can trade this market with the level of volatility currently.

Confirmed by this article below.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-08/hedge-funds-frozen-in-headlights-scale-back-trading-in-perilous-markets.html

Hedge-fund managers, Wall Street’s best compensated and supposedly smartest investors, are dazed and confused.

Reeling from the worst second-quarter performance in a decade, hedge funds have scaled back trading as they struggle to figure out where markets are headed amid sometimes vicious crosscurrents in stock, commodities and other markets, according to brokers and managers.

“There’s a degree of being frozen in the headlights, of not knowing what sectors to emphasize, of what securities to emphasize,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management LLC, a Bedford Hills, New York-based firm with $2 billion in hedge funds and conventional stock funds.

Hedge-fund managers, who oversee $1.67 trillion in assets, are reluctant to put money to work as they are buffeted by a wide range of often conflicting political and economic forces, from fiscal policy in Europe and the U.S., to what regulations will be imposed on the financial-services and energy industries, to the growth prospects in China. In turn, smaller and fewer trades may make it harder for funds to rebound from losses incurred since May, when the industry suffered its worst decline in 18 months.

“For many people, it’s a frustrating market given the high volatility and low volumes,” said Aaron Garvey, portfolio manager at MKP Capital Management LLC, a New York-based hedge fund overseeing $3.5 billion. “We are seeing strong opposing forces in the markets, which makes generating strong convictions difficult for the medium- and long-term.”

Holding Cash

FTSE back to circa 5500 over the next 4-6 weeks then as soon as it gets to that target the retrace/flat consolidation is complete and back to around march 09 lows by end of year is my most favoured view . Take it to the bank*

*or maybe not

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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FTSE back to circa 5500 over the next 4-6 weeks then as soon as it gets to that target the retrace/consolidation is complete and back to around march 09 lows by end of year is my most favoured view . Take it to the bank*

*or maybe not

It'll be there in 4 more days at this rate, I must admit I have favoured your view of a rally through the rest of the summer before the main event at the end of the year, rather than Pretcher's view we are on the way down from here.

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It'll be there in 4 more days at this rate, I must admit I have favoured your view of a rally through the rest of the summer before the main event at the end of the year, rather than Pretcher's view we are on the way down from here.

Well im long myself on options but its dangerous to be so because i think that the bear rally is over and we are technically now back in the declines, im just attempting to ride the rally, which is a bit naughty of me as i should really just wait for the 5500 to pile on the shorts again as its safer.

Timescale isnt so important as that target number of 5500, if i was a betting man i think it may well get above 5400 quite quickly within a couple of weeks and then spend a few weeks bouncing around that 5400/5500 level testing it a few times to create the neccesary technical divergences for it to sell off

Just to clarify i still dont think the main main event will start until 2012 but i think we should be back in fear territory by end of this year

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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Just to clarify i still dont think the main main event will start until 2012 but i think we should be back in fear territory by end of this year

2012 would be an interesting date especially with the relevance to the Mayan calendar.

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FTSE back to circa 5500 over the next 4-6 weeks then as soon as it gets to that target the retrace/flat consolidation is complete and back to around march 09 lows by end of year is my most favoured view . Take it to the bank*

*or maybe not

Can we see your rough workings on this Tamara?

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Can we see your rough workings on this Tamara?

Main move down in beginning of May was impulsive (1) (return of bear market) since then we have been tracing out a text book flat consolidation (its actually a slight expanding flat), to confirm this as a flat this leg up will need to have a clear 5 impulsive nature rather than ABC

fig_15.gif

inverse of above in bear market,

This move up should take us to the top of the Fib retracement level at 62% which connects nicely with top of the channel we have broken down from in blue and ideally as this move up develops and goes higher the 5400 mid June level it should create a nice divergence on the Moving Average which will help it power down.

All souns good in theory anyway

fts.JPG

post-19823-12786024169576_thumb.jpg

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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