Denninger On Gold.

[Executive Sadman]

Momentum is unfavorable and the close under the 50MA not positive at all. Short-term regaining and holding the 50MA, and preventing it from turning downward, is critical. Should that fail first-level support is around the 1160 level and second-level around 1075 - the latter, however, is under the 200MA and isn't very likely to hold if we get there.

This isn't the sort of pattern you want to see if you're bullish on Gold. I've talked about it for months now - the original triple-ascending slope is a relatively-common and dangerous parabolic blow-off sort of move. Gold then fell through the second trendline and wallowed along the lowest-slope one for over a month, leading many to proclaim it as a "buying opportunity." I warned on the 28th that if it did not regain that trendline with at least a chart pin in the next few days a huge selloff was likely, and that's exactly what we got.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/P2.html

Personally, im of the opinion gold will soar to unscaled heights (or more to the point the dollar will lose its value)

That said gold is down fractionally today.

[Frank Hovis]

Basic baked beans rocket in price by 53 per cent in a month

Sneaky supermarkets have raised the price of budget baked beans by 53 per cent – adding to the misery of millions of the poorest families.

Last month, the average price of the humble haricot rocketed from 19p to 29p – and, compared with this time last year, the price is up by 58 per cent.

While, on average, food prices are falling, our Cost of Living Index – compiled with The Grocer magazine – shows staple food, such as beans, are rising.

Despite worldwide food and oil prices tumbling, the news that our basket of 25 everyday items – from Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons – cost two per cent more than last month is a disturbing trend.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/11/17/basic-baked-beans-rocket-in-price-by-53-per-cent-in-a-month-115875-20901228/

[goldbug9999]

This isn't the sort of pattern you want to see if you're bullish on Gold. I've talked about it for months now - the original triple-ascending slope is a relatively-common and dangerous parabolic blow-off sort of move. Gold then fell through the second trendline and

Blah blah blah chartist ********, how many b******t so called patterns can you fit in one sentence, I mean "triple-ascending slope" "parabolic blow-off" is there some sort of award for these things ?.

[Executive Sadman]

I guess what im saying is, now is a good time to buy gold, or at least ditch the pound. Not as good as when it was 2.2 to the dollar, or 1.85 to the dollar, or 1.70 to the dollar, but better than any time henceforth.

Ive been looking at the recent upswings and falls in the pound,

This current 'lull' is indicative of the best it gets.

There is no good news, nor will there be. At best there is only an absence of bad news. No news IS good news.

Even in the unlikely event of no more printy printy come the new year the pound is likely to be battered by detiorating confidence as the unions cripple what is left of our decimated economy.

And remember, much of your council tax goes directly on pensions. As central govt handouts fall and business rates turn to dust, think youre council tax will go down.

Forget about it. The union maggots will bleed you dry. Choose as small a house as possible with as small tax liability as possible, store wealth in small mobile gold coins

[soldintime]

Gold will go down as we are entering a deflationary period. The big drop in gold was explained due to a massive short covering squeeze in the corn market

. Hedge funds had to sell gold to cover positions in other markets. Wait till it happens on a bigger scale. Gold will follow credit crunch part 2 the same way. This time it will fall deeper as the credit crunch will be harder.

Gold is also the only precious metal hitting new highs. silver is still way of 2008 highs or historic highs, the same for platinum and palladium. Gold stocks are also not hitting new highs. And the CRB index is still at 50% of its all time high. Goldbugs will be in for a nasty short term surprise.

Edited July 7, 2010 by soldintime

[Guest spp]

Gold will go down as we are entering a deflationary period. The big drop in gold was explained due to a massive short covering squeeze in the corn market

. Hedge funds had to sell gold to cover positions in other markets. Wait till it happens on a bigger scale. Gold will follow credit crunch part 2 the same way. This time it will fall deeper as the credit crunch will be harder.

Gold is also the only precious metal hitting new highs. silver is still way of 2008 highs or historic highs, the same for platinum and palladium. Gold stocks are also not hitting new highs. And the CRB index is still at 505 of its all time high. Goldbugs will be in for a nasty short term surprise.

Does the system allow for deflation?

IMO any major Deflation = Greatest depression

On the other hand -

Any major Deflation = Ben panics (another massive bailout) = Inflation/an even bigger government debt fueled mess!

See you when we get there...

[Ruffneck]

Basic baked beans rocket in price by 53 per cent in a month

Sneaky supermarkets have raised the price of budget baked beans by 53 per cent – adding to the misery of millions of the poorest families.

Last month, the average price of the humble haricot rocketed from 19p to 29p – and, compared with this time last year, the price is up by 58 per cent.

While, on average, food prices are falling, our Cost of Living Index – compiled with The Grocer magazine – shows staple food, such as beans, are rising.

Despite worldwide food and oil prices tumbling, the news that our basket of 25 everyday items – from Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons – cost two per cent more than last month is a disturbing trend.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/11/17/basic-baked-beans-rocket-in-price-by-53-per-cent-in-a-month-115875-20901228/

food goes up 2% in a month ; 24% over a year

more evidence of deflation.....

[Guest spp]

food goes up 2% in a month ; 24% over a year

more evidence of deflation.....

Beans are doing better than Gold/Silver??

Well at least I was well hedged

[_w_]

Does the system allow for deflation?

IMO any major Deflation = Greatest depression

On the other hand -

Any major Deflation = Ben panics (another massive bailout) = Inflation/an even bigger government debt fueled mess!

See you when we get there...

More accurate would have been to talk about expectation of deflation rather than deflation per se I think.

[sharpe]

Momentum is unfavorable and the close under the 50MA not positive at all. Short-term regaining and holding the 50MA, and preventing it from turning downward, is critical. Should that fail first-level support is around the 1160 level and second-level around 1075 - the latter, however, is under the 200MA and isn't very likely to hold if we get there.

This isn't the sort of pattern you want to see if you're bullish on Gold. I've talked about it for months now - the original triple-ascending slope is a relatively-common and dangerous parabolic blow-off sort of move. Gold then fell through the second trendline and wallowed along the lowest-slope one for over a month, leading many to proclaim it as a "buying opportunity." I warned on the 28th that if it did not regain that trendline with at least a chart pin in the next few days a huge selloff was likely, and that's exactly what we got.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/P2.html

Personally, im of the opinion gold will soar to unscaled heights (or more to the point the dollar will lose its value)

That said gold is down fractionally today.

Another squealing paper bitch

[Realistbear]

"It is a little noticed fact but baked beans have proven to be the most accurate barometer of price movements there is."

I was in Tesco's yesterday and they were selling Branston Baked Beans on a buy 2 and get 2 free basis. A 50% collapse in the price of beans!

1190.20

-4.90

-0.41%

Edited July 7, 2010 by Realistbear

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

bubble?

link

[babesagainstmachines]

"It is a little noticed fact but baked beans have proven to be the most accurate barometer of price movements there is."

I was in Tesco's yesterday and they were selling Branston Baked Beans on a buy 2 and get 2 free basis. A 50% collapse in the price of beans!

Have you eaten them? They taste about as good as gold.

[expatowner]

Ruined!!!

gee that good time didnt last long :-(

[Frank Hovis]

bubble?

Barbarous relic.

Computer & Telecoms

Microsoft

Apple

Hewlett Packard

Honeywell

Intel

AT&T

Nokia

Motorola

Verizon

These companies barely registered in 1981. How much are they worth today?

Edited July 7, 2010 by Frank Hovis

[concerned_money]

Gold will go down as we are entering a deflationary period.

seems rational, commodoties are down, manpower costs falling by the day therefore gold must fall to maintain relativity.

cash is king once more.

however there maybe a possibility to buy in the delay between the US printing and the UK following.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

Barbarous relic.

Computer & Telecoms

Microsoft

Apple

Hewlett Packard

Honeywell

Intel

AT&T

Nokia

Motorola

Verizon

These companies barely registered in 1981. How much are they worth today?

dunno

im not great at stock picking

i can see the longer term trends though

['Bart']

Have you eaten them? They taste about as good as gold.

These days I prefer Branston to Heinz (too much bean juice in Heinz tins these days).

[Ruffneck]

Barbarous relic.

Computer & Telecoms

Microsoft

Apple

Hewlett Packard

Honeywell

Intel

AT&T

Nokia

Motorola

Verizon

These companies barely registered in 1981. How much are they worth today?

dunno

many tech firms still have not regained the highs of the dot com bubble , NASDAQ still has not hit the levels it did back in 99/00

for every microsoft there is at least one enron

Edited July 7, 2010 by Ruffneck

[Frank Hovis]

dunno

many tech firms still have not regained the highs of the dot com bubble , NASDAQ still has not hit the levels it did back in 99/00

for every microsoft there is at least one enron

My point is that the world changes. The basic lesson of "The Wealth of Nations" is that a country's wealth does not derive from how much gold and jewels it has in its exchequer but from its productivity.

That gold has less value as a proportion of the world's wealth is unsurprising. I will avoid the obvious example of tulip bulbs as that was a bit of a freak occurence, but what about amber, jet, rubies, sapphires. At one time they were great stores and signifiers of wealth. I don't see anybody piling into amber; the world has moved on.

['Bart']

That gold has less value as a proportion of the world's wealth is unsurprising.

I may be way off here but isn't there way more money (paper, electronic) in the world than ever before, but the amount of gold only increases at a relatively stable rate:

DR. EVIL: I will destroy another major city every hour- that is, unless you pay me-

SNAP ZOOM

DR. EVIL: One hundred billion dollars!

The President and his advisors LAUGH.

PRESIDENT: Dr. Evil that's more than the entire federal budget for 1969.

DR. EVIL: Don't play games with me. The capitol will disappear if I don't receive

SNAP ZOOM

DR. EVIL: One hundred billion dollars!

His advisors LAUGH.

PRESIDENT: That much money simply doesn't exist. I don't think l00 billion is even a number.

[Ruffneck]

My point is that the world changes. The basic lesson of "The Wealth of Nations" is that a country's wealth does not derive from how much gold and jewels it has in its exchequer but from its productivity.

That gold has less value as a proportion of the world's wealth is unsurprising. I will avoid the obvious example of tulip bulbs as that was a bit of a freak occurence, but what about amber, jet, rubies, sapphires. At one time they were great stores and signifiers of wealth. I don't see anybody piling into amber; the world has moved on.

the world will move on from fiat currencies before they move from gold

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

My point is that the world changes. The basic lesson of "The Wealth of Nations" is that a country's wealth does not derive from how much gold and jewels it has in its exchequer but from its productivity.

That gold has less value as a proportion of the world's wealth is unsurprising. I will avoid the obvious example of tulip bulbs as that was a bit of a freak occurence, but what about amber, jet, rubies, sapphires. At one time they were great stores and signifiers of wealth. I don't see anybody piling into amber; the world has moved on.

the world moves in cycles

[Belfast Boy]

My point is that the world changes. The basic lesson of "The Wealth of Nations" is that a country's wealth does not derive from how much gold and jewels it has in its exchequer but from its productivity.

That gold has less value as a proportion of the world's wealth is unsurprising. I will avoid the obvious example of tulip bulbs as that was a bit of a freak occurence, but what about amber, jet, rubies, sapphires. At one time they were great stores and signifiers of wealth. I don't see anybody piling into amber; the world has moved on.

The world has moved on eh? Why do central banks have gold then?

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

The world has moved on eh? Why do central banks have gold then?

they dont want it circulating as money

not too fond of competition are the bankers