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Beggar Thy Children

The Coalition's Hpi/hpc Plans

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This bit at the end of the Guardian story from yesterday caught my eye.

A glance at the budget projections shows that Cable and Osborne expect the property boom to be back within a couple of years and providing even more tax receipts than before. In 2015/16 stamp duty taxes will fill the exchequer with £17.7bn, with the majority from duty on property sales.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/05/government-borrowing-public-sector-cuts

If they are planning on - and basing their budget on - further HPI, then doesnt that tell us everything we need to know about whather the coalition will stomach HPC?

Edited by BTL Cattle

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This bit at the end of the Guardian story from yesterday caught my eye.

http://www.guardian....lic-sector-cuts

If they are planning on - and basing their budget on - further HPI, then doesnt that tell us everything we need to know about whather the coalition will stomach HPC?

why do you need a boom to give high stamp duty receipts - all they need is plenty of sales of one form or another - could be diostressed boomers selling to kids - even at lower values? just more transactions?

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why do you need a boom to give high stamp duty receipts - all they need is plenty of sales of one form or another - could be diostressed boomers selling to kids - even at lower values? just more transactions?

Indeed.

I also predict there will be a property boom around the time of the next election. These things have a habit of occurring around election time it would seem.

But 2015 is half a decade away and a lot can happen before then.

And it will.

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The figures, from the OBR (whoever they are) do forecast rising prices of 4 - 5% after 2013 (iirc), I did post the details from their PDF a few days ago.

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Guest absolutezero

High house prices = high mortgages.

Large debt = people too scared to upset the applecart.

HPI to continue.

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The figures, from the OBR (whoever they are) do forecast rising prices of 4 - 5% after 2013 (iirc), I did post the details from their PDF a few days ago.

I love that in predicting hpi over 3 years from now, when nobody seems able to predict as far as the next quarter, they've gone for between 4 and 5%. Like saying we actually think it'll be 4.5% but hey this is 3 years away so we'd better include a margin for error...there, 0.5% should cover it!

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The figures, from the OBR (whoever they are) do forecast rising prices of 4 - 5% after 2013 (iirc), I did post the details from their PDF a few days ago.

the OBR figures are deliberately crude and based on applying simple economic growth to house prices

so in other words they are completey honest about it being an unsophisticated perdiction

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and newspapers always tend towards saying a housing boom is just around the corner with one reason being that a huge amount of their advertising revenue comes from housing related business.

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the OBR figures are deliberately crude and based on applying simple economic growth to house prices

so in other words they are completey honest about it being an unsophisticated perdiction

OBR figures are the average (or some such) of market forecasts from economists and lenders etc. The OBR stated themselves that they are "not inthe business of forecasting".

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the OBR figures are deliberately crude and based on applying simple economic growth to house prices

so in other words they are completey honest about it being an unsophisticated perdiction

Isn't the Government basing its policies and actions on these "unsophisticated predictions"?

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I love that in predicting hpi over 3 years from now, when nobody seems able to predict as far as the next quarter

The next quarter? See the Halifax HPI predictions thread: no-one can even predict hpi as far as the next 24 hours!

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Couldnt it also be construde that the government are wanting to accelerate the HPC to happen over the next couple of years so it turns around within the next 5 ready for the next election?

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The next quarter? See the Halifax HPI predictions thread: no-one can even predict hpi as far as the next 24 hours!

I agree. I am perplexed about the whole thing.

Can't seem to get a handle on any trend whatsoever. The news is all over the place as if it has been orchestrated that way to disorient and confuse. The perfect way to prevent strong moves one way or the other.

The double dip has been cancelled in the US and the EU banks have passed the stress test (even though the results haven't been officially announced yet).

As for HPI--I think it may well continue as there is a flood of money about to see people buying up in the shops--M&S report was very positive and they are a good barometer. Oil is rising so we can have higher pump prices.

Is there any bearish news ANYWHERE today?

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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