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Euro Collapse Imminent--Parity With Us $

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-05/euro-worst-to-come-for-most-accurate-analysts-as-td-securities-sees-parity.html

Euro's Worst to Come, Top Analysts Say
By Matthew "Matt" Brown - Jul 5, 2010
The ECB, led by President Jean-Claude Trichet, began buying government bonds as part of the EU rescue package to cap yields and underpin the euro. Photographer: Mario Proenca/Bloomberg
The most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster says the euro will continue to weaken and may approach parity with the dollar as the European Central Bank buys more government bonds to support the region’s economy.
Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto, said the euro will depreciate to $1.13 in the third quarter, $1.08 by year-end and may near $1 in 2011 before recovering. Osborne, whose predictions were within 4.1 percent of the mark on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, was
echoed by the nine following most-accurate forecasters
anticipating a lower euro in the next two quarters.

But surely the upcoming stress tests will prove that it is contained?

If the Euro does collapse it will mean that our exports will seem a bit dear and the EU is our largest trading partner. If the Pound rises vs. the dollar it will make our exports seem a bit dear to our second largest trading partner too and then we will be in a bit of a kerfuffel.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-05/euro-worst-to-come-for-most-accurate-analysts-as-td-securities-sees-parity.html

Euro's Worst to Come, Top Analysts Say
By Matthew "Matt" Brown - Jul 5, 2010
The ECB, led by President Jean-Claude Trichet, began buying government bonds as part of the EU rescue package to cap yields and underpin the euro. Photographer: Mario Proenca/Bloomberg
The most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster says the euro will continue to weaken and may approach parity with the dollar as the European Central Bank buys more government bonds to support the region’s economy.
Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto, said the euro will depreciate to $1.13 in the third quarter, $1.08 by year-end and may near $1 in 2011 before recovering. Osborne, whose predictions were within 4.1 percent of the mark on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, was
echoed by the nine following most-accurate forecasters
anticipating a lower euro in the next two quarters.

But surely the upcoming stress tests will prove that it is contained?

If the Euro does collapse it will mean that our exports will seem a bit dear and the EU is our largest trading partner. If the Pound rises vs. the dollar it will make our exports seem a bit dear to our second largest trading partner too and then we will be in a bit of a kerfuffel.

The Euro has been quite strong past couple of weeks, against the dollar and gold.

The Euro can remain strong, just so long as the ECB doesnt print too much. All that changes very quickly if they decide that the only way to sort out the banking mess is just to go in headlong and buy government bonds all over Europe. Then we will have a bit of a rout.

I wonder how the Bank of England and the Government will react if the pound keeps ascending? Now $1.52 to the pound, that wasnt what the doctor ordered.

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I knew you were going to post that link RB ;)

Not being argumentative BTW, I agree with that view and repetita iuvant :)

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The Euro has been quite strong past couple of weeks, against the dollar and gold.

The Euro can remain strong, just so long as the ECB doesnt print too much. All that changes very quickly if they decide that the only way to sort out the banking mess is just to go in headlong and buy government bonds all over Europe. Then we will have a bit of a rout.

I wonder how the Bank of England and the Government will react if the pound keeps ascending? Now $1.52 to the pound, that wasnt what the doctor ordered.

Could be the US trying to maintain growth through exports--a high pound will do nicely for exporters to our shores.

The spotlight is on the US and their open admission that all the boosters on the rocket are failing and that the double dip is a done deal. The Eurozone looks incredibly fragile and it appears that the "stress test" bet to strengthen confidence in the Euro is having the reverse effect--no one believes the banks any more.

The UK is still bathing in the afterglow of a new Koalishon and promises to get the book straight. HPI is still on track and that is the driver of our economy. When HPI is on the up sterling reacts positively. Seen it happen every time.

I do not believe HPI can last into winter and my bet is that we will see some Sterling weakness very soon. I agree with the Bloomberg conclusion--around 1.44 by the end of the year barring any Black Swans floating onto the scene.*

________________

A couple of bad months for HPI of the order of more than 2% down MoM for example

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In other news, bloomberg says the market has stopped altogether....on noes...it was just an autocue failure.

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If the Euro does collapse it will mean that our exports will seem a bit dear and the EU is our largest trading partner. If the Pound rises vs. the dollar it will make our exports seem a bit dear to our second largest trading partner too and then we will be in a bit of a kerfuffel.

But as a net importer, a strong pound will be good news ;)

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Weaker Euro to the Pound is good news for HPCers as it makes housing in the UK more expensive and encourages foreigners who bought here to cash in their investment.

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Give it a few months RB. The Euro is going higher against the dollar in the short term - maybe $1.40.

Quite possible. The double dip is now underway in the US and we lag over here-maybe 6 months. Could be less as things seem to happen a bit quicker these days--globalisation and all that.

America certainly has a serious cold but they still have growth which may be trailing off now due to the higher $. Their "low dollar" policy under the Bush administration may have stalled the great crash a couple of years and the effects of that policy are now unwinding rapidly and here we are today.

Euro doing better than the pound vs. the $--today at least.

$ =

Euro: 1.25997

Pound: 1.51693

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<br />Could be the US trying to maintain growth through exports--a high pound will do nicely for exporters to our shores. <br /><br />The spotlight is on the US and their open admission that all the boosters on the rocket are failing and that the double dip is a done deal. The Eurozone looks incredibly fragile and it appears that the "stress test" bet to strengthen confidence in the Euro is having the reverse effect--no one believes the banks any more.<br /><br />The UK is still bathing in the afterglow of a new Koalishon and promises to get the book straight. HPI is still on track and that is the driver of our economy. When HPI is on the up sterling reacts positively. Seen it happen every time.<br /><br />I do not believe HPI can last into winter and my bet is that we will see some Sterling weakness very soon. I agree with the Bloomberg conclusion--around 1.44 by the end of the year barring any Black Swans floating onto the scene.*<br /><br /><br /><br />________________<br /><br />A couple of bad months for HPI of the order of more than 2% down MoM for example<br />
<br /><br /><br />

The illuminati are briefly rewarding the govt to make them look good - but it's because they have kept their city/finance 'swindling machine' mechanism in place and intact!

Traitors

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Osborne, whose predictions were within 4.1 percent of the mark on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, was echoed by the nine following most-accurate forecasters anticipating a lower euro in the next two quarters.

So the euro has weakened recently. And the forecasters who saw this think it will carry on going lower.

No confirmation bias at all, (probably not the right expression but I don't know what is).

I bet that if the euro strengthens the top nine forcasters who predicted this will also be predicting a further rise.

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The most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster says the euro will continue to weaken and may approach parity with the dollar as the European Central Bank buys more government bonds to support the region’s economy.

only until bernanke opens up his money spigot again.

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Euro is on a bounce right now (bear trap). I think it could top 1.27 to 1.30 before resuming its downwards path. I would think 1.40 is a bit high.

When the deflationary debt spiral starts there will be the biggest demand for USD as most of the worlds debt is still issued that way.

Best way to survive the deflation debt spiral is to hold US cash in your own safe. Gold and silver will be sold of to get hands on cash. The latest drop in gold has now been blamed on the massive short covering rally in Corn. Hedge funds had to sell their gold positions to cover the losses on the corn market. What will gold do when we see losses in other markets.

Gold could go up after hyperinflation comes after the debt deflation spiral has stopped. But my guess is we are years away from that.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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