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The New Boomers?

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It looks like there are a few 'Baby Boomer" threads on here tonight. I thought I would post this , a UK interactive demographic chart. A lot is often talked about the 'population pyramid', and that because of the 1950-1970 baby boom this is becoming inverted. The reality is somewhat different, and as you play the chart it's more akin to a snake swallowing a couple of pigs. By the time of the next election, the biggest cohort will be those born between 1977-1997, something which surprised me, and something which must have political ramifications, but what?

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It looks like there are a few 'Baby Boomer" threads on here tonight. I thought I would post this , a UK interactive demographic chart. A lot is often talked about the 'population pyramid', and that because of the 1950-1970 baby boom this is becoming inverted. The reality is somewhat different, and as you play the chart it's more akin to a snake swallowing a couple of pigs. By the time of the next election, the biggest cohort will be those born between 1977-1997, something which surprised me, and something which must have political ramifications, but what?

I love this chart. I use it loads.

It kinda makes the whole baby boomer thing look a bit daft, especially when you consider the sheer bulges of people born in the 1960s and 1980s: Gen X and Gen Y.

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Cool. You can see the immigration of the last 10 years.

Evil boomers trying to fill in the gap behind them (well us actually, as I'm just a year off the 1967 peak)

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I love this chart. I use it loads.

It kinda makes the whole baby boomer thing look a bit daft, especially when you consider the sheer bulges of people born in the 1960s and 1980s: Gen X and Gen Y.

Never in history have so many deserved so little. Thatchers children have Thatchers world.

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I love this chart. I use it loads.

It kinda makes the whole baby boomer thing look a bit daft, especially when you consider the sheer bulges of people born in the 1960s and 1980s: Gen X and Gen Y.

on uk definitions, people born in the 60s are still baby boomers not gen x

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I love this chart. I use it loads.

It kinda makes the whole baby boomer thing look a bit daft, especially when you consider the sheer bulges of people born in the 1960s and 1980s: Gen X and Gen Y.

I don't think it changes things that much.

1) Baby boomers came first, so they've been able to buy house(s) and ride the various HPI waves. At least one more than Gen X, two more than Gen Y. So they're now occupying the top-level houses and blocking the system up - they don't need to move in most cases, so can hang around to get whatever asking price they would like and/or MEW a bit to fit stairlifts etc. if needs be.

2) The later boomers are still working, and not likely to retire in any great numbers too soon - which will probably lead to a stagnant career ladder further down. From the pyramid, there are more Gen X and Y fighting for fewer jobs.

3) It's my impression that Gen X & Y don't turn out to vote in the same numbers as older generations so their numbers are nullified to some extent. I know from younger relations that they don't really see the point of voting given the corruption etc. I don't know if this is all down to being young either - weren't boomers a lot more politically active at the same age?

4) Debt. Gen Y especially have student fees to pay which is like a double-penalty if you also have to save up for a deposit. Assuming you can get a decent graduate job in the first place.

It's not just about plain numbers in each generation.

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It looks like there are a few 'Baby Boomer" threads on here tonight. I thought I would post this , a UK interactive demographic chart. A lot is often talked about the 'population pyramid', and that because of the 1950-1970 baby boom this is becoming inverted. The reality is somewhat different, and as you play the chart it's more akin to a snake swallowing a couple of pigs. By the time of the next election, the biggest cohort will be those born between 1977-1997, something which surprised me, and something which must have political ramifications, but what?

that 2nd bulge - the student loans generation, and the priced-out generation

who or what will they vote for...

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when that second bulge (kids of genx) gets to peak spending age (30-40) a new boom is predicted, about 2023. It will last until that bulge gets to about 50.

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that 2nd bulge - the student loans generation, and the priced-out generation

who or what will they vote for...

At present they're probably too young, too comfortable to be angry or want to demand change. Give it time though, time in which opportunities they thought would be there are not (and most current 20 yr olds I come into contact with don't realise this will most likely be the case) and I think things will change. Certainly they could be a significant voting force if the ballot box is used to register their disquiet, but I don't see any current political party wanting to reach out at the expense of the 1st baby boomers.

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it seems to assume very large scale immigration ongoing from 2010 onwards for 20 years - seem to be getting 'born' as 20 somethings and the pyramid is widening but not from the base

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it seems to assume very large scale immigration ongoing from 2010 onwards for 20 years - seem to be getting 'born' as 20 somethings and the pyramid is widening but not from the base

Well spotted that man!

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It looks like there are a few 'Baby Boomer" threads on here tonight. I thought I would post this , a UK interactive demographic chart.

Thanks for that. It appear the key age is 42, all credit to Douglas Adams for being ahead of the game. I would guess that this is the peak for income and house buying aspirations. (Therefore equals demand) with supply only rising slowly over the years.

Around 1998, we get the spike and that house price boom followed.

Then we get the lull down to 1994-1997. (good time to buy a house)

Then we get the biggest ever increase up to 2007 (peak prices)

Then we get stability until 2013 and capitulation until 2019. So no point buying a house until 2019.

(Even the previous boom/busts line up although the rate of changes are much smaller)

I was tracking this sort of thing back in 1999 after reading "Agequake" by Paul Wallace. The graphs then were using 35-45 as the peak income/house buying age. Back in 2003, I sold up (to move) thinking it would only be another 18 months to the peak. I was two years too early since I was using 40 yr olds for peak demand. (Duh!), at least I had bought at the optimum time (1997 and got the bulk of the gains).

So no need to worry about interest rates, government policy, mortgage backed securities. It's just down to 42 years olds and their biology. Everything else is secondary.

VMR.

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Cool. You can see the immigration of the last 10 years.

Evil boomers trying to fill in the gap behind them (well us actually, as I'm just a year off the 1967 peak)

Yes rather mysteriously the number of people in my age group seems to suddenly increase, when normally you'd expect a few fatalities.

Of course who says all these immigrants will stay. The hard working ones may well go home having saved enough to buy a mansion in Poland, whilst we'll be left providing LHA, choice based lettings and benefits to the rest.

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Well spotted that man!

Yes, indeed. I am guessing this is based on some new Labour immigration model and not the new policy limiting immigration.

I am not sure how sustainable inviting Somalis to live in our £1m+ houses is going to be going forward.

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Then we get stability until 2013 and capitulation until 2019. So no point buying a house until 2019.

(Even the previous boom/busts line up although the rate of changes are much smaller)

I was tracking this sort of thing back in 1999 after reading "Agequake" by Paul Wallace. The graphs then were using 35-45 as the peak income/house buying age. Back in 2003, I sold up (to move) thinking it would only be another 18 months to the peak. I was two years too early since I was using 40 yr olds for peak demand. (Duh!), at least I had bought at the optimum time (1997 and got the bulk of the gains).

So no need to worry about interest rates, government policy, mortgage backed securities. It's just down to 42 years olds and their biology. Everything else is secondary.

VMR.

Interesting conclusion: 2019.

Good, I'm in Asia for the next 10 years anyway. Perfect.

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The problem isn't the boomers per-se, it's the multi-trillion pound debts they left behind like unfunded state pension liabilities and their demands that their standard of living be maintained when they haven't paid for it.

Politicians are desperately looking for ways out of the debts the boomers ran up and there aren't any.

The most obvious is these attempts to retrospectively change civil service pension entitlements.

You can't do that though. You can't make promises and then change your mind... or at least, not without completely changing the concept of law and pulling out of the EU.

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It all assumes immigration being in excess of emigration.

If you look at the ONS figures there were 756, 800 live births in 1987

Yet by 2009 the number of people supposedly born in 1987 is 855,600 and in 2021 it is estimated to be 977,700

The balance is presumed to be made up by people coming to the UK.

Given that immigrants follow the money and there is not likely to be much of that about in the UK over the next 5 years I think the estimates should be treated with a sizable pinch of salt. I think many of the UK graduates currently looking for work will wind up emigrating as soon as conditions improve abroad.

Edited by realcrookswearsuits

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It looks like there are a few 'Baby Boomer" threads on here tonight. I thought I would post this , a UK interactive demographic chart. A lot is often talked about the 'population pyramid', and that because of the 1950-1970 baby boom this is becoming inverted. The reality is somewhat different, and as you play the chart it's more akin to a snake swallowing a couple of pigs. By the time of the next election, the biggest cohort will be those born between 1977-1997, something which surprised me, and something which must have political ramifications, but what?

The second bulge increases in size over time, I think it represents immigration.

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It all assumes immigration being in excess of emigration.

If you look at the ONS figures there were 756, 800 live births in 1987

Yet by 2009 the number of people supposedly born in 1987 is 855,600 and in 2021 it is estimated to be 977,700

The balance is presumed to be made up by people coming to the UK.

Given that immigrants follow the money and there is not likely to be much of that about in the UK over the next 5 years I think the estimates should be treated with a sizable pinch of salt. I think many of the UK graduates currently looking for work will wind up emigrating as soon as conditions improve abroad.

I reckon that immigrants are of two types, those who go where there is work and those who go where there are good benefits.

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But the question is .... where can those 80s and 90s babies migrate to in the next ten years?

Europe will be pretty much a disaster: the EU countries will be fiscally damaged and still be running high unemployment. Non EU European-ish countries can be xenophobic and difficult to live in, especially if the economy is weak. The US isn't an option, you need point for Oz, I can't see Africa being an option, or Japan or China, DUbai is screwed and the UAE are being weird and I wouldn't advise you try for Russia.

So your options are going to be, what, Canada, New Zealand or South America?

Again, I would suggest that a lot of Gen X that have migrated to Europe might find they have to return in the next couple of years. I suspect that the only reason why things did not kick off badly in the early noughties (at the time of the anti-cap riots) is that rather a lot of GenXers migrated in the early noughties. I can't see that being an option for the young now.

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you need point for Oz - not that hard if under 30 and got a few degrees

China - why not? (also associated economies, SE Asia)

Germany. Holland.

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The second bulge increases in size over time, I think it represents immigration.

I wonder if that online chart was developed by a boomer - 'look mom at all the people who will immigrate to pay my pension for 30 yrs work at the Office for National Statistics!'

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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