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Turning East, Turkey Asserts New Economic Power

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http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/06/business/global/06lira.html?_r=1&ref=business

For decades, Turkey has been told it was not ready to join the European Union — that it was too backward economically to qualify for membership in the now 27-nation club.

That argument may no longer hold.

Today, Turkey is a fast-rising economic power, with a core of internationally competitive companies that are turning the youthful nation into an entrepreneurial hub, tapping cash-rich export markets in Russia and the Middle East while attracting billions of investment dollars in return.

For many in aging and debt-weary Europe, which will be lucky to eke out a little more than 1 percent growth this year, Turkey’s economic renaissance — last week it reported a stunning 11.4 percent expansion for the first quarter, second only to China — poses a completely new question: who needs the other one more — Europe or Turkey?

“The old powers are losing power, both economically and intellectually,” said Vural Ak, 42, the founder and chief executive of Intercity, the largest car leasing company in Turkey. “And Turkey is now strong enough to stand by itself.”

It is an astonishing transformation for an economy that just 10 years ago had a budget deficit of 16 percent of gross domestic product and inflation of 72 percent. It is one that lies at the root of the rise to power of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has combined social conservatism with fiscally cautious economic policies to make his Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., the most dominant political movement in Turkey since the early days of the republic.

Indeed, so complete has this evolution been, that Turkey is now closer to fulfilling the criteria for adopting the euro — if it ever does get into the European Union — than most of the troubled economies already in the euro zone. It is well under the 60-percent ceiling on government debt, at 49 percent of G.D.P., and could well get its annual budget deficit below the 3 percent benchmark next year. That leaves reducing inflation, now running at 8 percent, as the only remaining major policy goal.

“This is a dream world,” said Husnu M. Ozyegin who became the richest man in Turkey when he sold his bank, Finansbank, to the National Bank of Greece in 2006. Sitting on the rooftop of his five star Swiss Hotel, he is scrolling down the most recent credit-default spreads for euro zone countries on his BlackBerry and he still cannot quite believe what he is seeing. “Greece, 980. Italy, 194 and here is Turkey at 192,” he said with a grunt of satisfaction. “If you had told me 10 years ago that Turkey’s financial risk would equal that of Italy I would have said you were crazy.”

I wonder if the Germans are eyeing Turkey to help bailout the PIIGS?

Question is would Turkey be insane to get involved in the European project?

Still it's all contained and recovery is locked in....

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All the progress I thought Turkey had made, and would be welcomed, is being trashed by their stance v Israel. Thankfully. After the debacle over Greece's book-cooking, who will believe Turkey?

They are now threatening to break off diplomatic ties over the Gaza ship raids.

It will the death-knell for the EU if Turkey come in. I can't see Germany wanting it, they have millions of turks there already.

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All the progress I thought Turkey had made, and would be welcomed, is being trashed by their stance v Israel. Thankfully. After the debacle over Greece's book-cooking, who will believe Turkey?

They are now threatening to break off diplomatic ties over the Gaza ship raids.

It will the death-knell for the EU if Turkey come in. I can't see Germany wanting it, they have millions of turks there already.

They will be let in but likely without the free movement of labour for a long time say 15-30 years. by then turkey will reach a European level of wealth and few turks will want to leave the mother land.

Oddly I know of turks in the UK contemplating returning to turkey something they would have laughed at 10 years ago. The conditions, wages, quality of life is all much better now than 10 years ago.

If they can fully get rid of corruption then in 10 years time they will be a mid EU type wealth. They will likely in 20 years time overtake the UK in GDP.

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All the progress I thought Turkey had made, and would be welcomed, is being trashed by their stance v Israel.

It's a pretty normal reaction to the cold-blooded murder of several of their citizens. Britain's not keen on them either, after those other murderers used our passports.

Who in Europe would be on Israel's side? The Germans?

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Turkey is benefiting because they aren't in the euro. I know a whole bunch of people who are going there on holiday this year, solely because of the exchange rate

So it's not because it's a wonderful country with a diverse culture, astonishing history and beautiful cities then?

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no doubt Turkey is going places & main reason is staying off euro, just few days ago my relative who's a top banker (six fig salary, 7 fig bonus type) informs me that he's bought a property in Turkey & apparrently some of his close colleagues have assets there as well.

Another interesting bit of news how they managed to avoid IMF loan was Iranian help:

Iranians urge IMF to investigate Turkey's £11bn 'windfall'

Cash and gold allegedly smuggled out in trucks

Turkish PM links money to 'divine intervention'

Robert Tait in Istanbul guardian.co.uk,

Thursday 17 September 2009 19.51 BST Article history

It sounds more like the plot of a Hollywood thriller than a matter to be investigated by a global financial institution: a tale of improbably vast amounts of money and gold smuggled across international borders by a cast of shady characters.

But the International Monetary Fund has been asked to look into the mysterious appearance of more than £11bn in the Turkish treasury, amid allegations that the money was illegally spirited out of Iran.

Three Iranian opposition politicians – including a former foreign minister, Ebrahim Yazdi – have written to the IMF's managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, saying the money belongs to Iran and should be returned.

The money is credited with stabilising Turkey's economy.

But its origins have come under scrutiny after an Iranian businessman, Esmael Safarian-Nasab, claimed he had exported $7.5bn (£4.5bn) in cash and gold bullion worth $11.5bn into Turkey via Germany as part of a joint venture with a Turkish business partner.

Safarian-Nasab's Turkish lawyer, Senol Ozel, said the money and gold were seized by customs officials last October and transferred to government coffers. Some Turkish media outlets claim it had been smuggled across Turkey's border with Iran in trucks.

Turkish media have pointed out that the sums matched an $18.5bn windfall announced late last year by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister.

Economists say it saved the country from seeking a new IMF loan.

Erdogan appeared to attribute the cash to divine intervention. "Turkey's God is great, he injected $18.5bn into the Turkish economy in these hard economic times," he announced.

Officials, including the central bank governor, Dormuz Yilmaz, have dismissed reports that the money was Iranian and the intelligence ministry threatened to prosecute "false" reports.

Some Turkish economists said the money was a dividend from a government amnesty that enabled investors with overseas assets to bring them back without penalty. Ozel has since issued a public apology, saying he was hoodwinked.

Yazdi and his fellow correspondents, Ahmad Sadr Haj-Javadi, a leading member of Iran's Freedom movement, and Ezatollah Sahabi, general secretary of National Religious party wrote to the IMF after Erdogan failed to answer an earlier letter.

"Although the identity of the person who claims to be the owner of this money is mentioned in the attached documents, the real owner is the Iranian nation," they wrote.

Yazdi said he expected Strauss-Kahn to launch an investigation. "The gentleman who claims that money belongs to him says it comes from Iran," Yazdi told the Guardian. "I don't know this man or who he is, but it all seems very strange."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/17/imf-investigate-turkish-treasury-money

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You cannot buy property in turkey if you're a foreigner, new laws just come in apparently...

Errr not that I'm aware of and I've lived here for 6 years. To do so would be economic suicide.

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Errr not that I'm aware of and I've lived here for 6 years. To do so would be economic suicide.

duuurrr no.

Have you learned nothing here?

Exactly the opposite it true.

Allowing foreign money to flood into your property market causing a huge bubble and pricing out all the locals is economic suicide.

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All the progress I thought Turkey had made, and would be welcomed, is being trashed by their stance v Israel. Thankfully. After the debacle over Greece's book-cooking, who will believe Turkey?

They are now threatening to break off diplomatic ties over the Gaza ship raids.

It will the death-knell for the EU if Turkey come in. I can't see Germany wanting it, they have millions of turks there already.

And outside the main cities...they still kill women for dishonouring the family by doing evil things like, oooh, trying to earn

a bit of extra money by opening a tiny market stall.

Oh yes, Turkey is just soooo ready for EU entry, no human rights issues there, no siree..

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Turkey is benefiting because they aren't in the euro. I know a whole bunch of people who are going there on holiday this year, solely because of the exchange rate

Same as. But when the yoyo is hovering around 1.20 to 1 pound, the summer holiday in yoyoland just ain't as expensive, as thought, back in January (approx).

On a sidenote. I recall reading on here some time ago that Turkey have quite a large military force plus arsenal?

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Same as. But when the yoyo is hovering around 1.20 to 1 pound, the summer holiday in yoyoland just ain't as expensive, as thought, back in January (approx).

On a sidenote. I recall reading on here some time ago that Turkey have quite a large military force plus arsenal?

Doesn't Turkey illegally occupy the northern half of cyprus? Or so the Greeks say :rolleyes: The British keep very quiet on this one :rolleyes:

If Turkey does become so wealthy then it will become a huge magnet for millions of Iranians & Syrians - could they cope those borders are very porous?

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<br />duuurrr no.<br /><br />Have you learned nothing here?<br /><br />Exactly the opposite it true.<br /><br />Allowing foreign money to flood into your property market causing a huge bubble and pricing out all the locals is economic suicide.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

The bubbles in Ireland and Spain were caused by over a decade of billions of Euros (EEC) thrown at them!

Respective economies tanked shortly after taps were turned off!

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i am sure i read on here a few months ago that they eat baby's in turkey???

Appreciating that nugget. Consider my Turkish vacation, without further ado... TERMINATED :D

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All the progress I thought Turkey had made, and would be welcomed, is being trashed by their stance v Israel. Thankfully. After the debacle over Greece's book-cooking, who will believe Turkey?

They are now threatening to break off diplomatic ties over the Gaza ship raids.

It will the death-knell for the EU if Turkey come in. I can't see Germany wanting it, they have millions of turks there already.

yeah.

turkey is a KEY strategic point between the west+islam.

they aren't quite as hardline as the mad mullahs,but I still don't think they are entirely happy with the concept of being either:

a)a staging point for the US bombing the crap out of most of the arabic world

b)annexation into the holy roman empire(again)

so I guess turkey and the US have a bit in common!.....the US don't particularly like the prospect of a new holy roman empire either,it's a threat to their hegemony.

they really are in a bit of a bind.....I think in retrospect the turks might come to see uncle sam as the more benevolent option,but will probably have to learn the hard way.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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