Cheap Oil?

[Mega]

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZW20100704000064/Saudi%20King:%20Halt%20To%20Oil%20Exploration%20To%20Save%20Wealth

Mike

[zceb90]

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZW20100704000064/Saudi%20King:%20Halt%20To%20Oil%20Exploration%20To%20Save%20Wealth

Mike

It's hardly surprising that Saudi is indicating a change of policy whereby exploration activity is curtailed so as to preserve some of their oil reserves for future generations. Over the past 50 years population has risen 6 fold and Saudi now consumes around 25% of their oil production; trend to use more themselves is likely to continue and current gas shortages are forcing Saudi to use oil for electricity generation.

Moveover, some of us argue that the majority of Saudi oil production is coming from a few giant fields which are many decades old - the Saudi statement might be somewhat of a 'softening up process' so that oil importing nations can become used to the idea that future volumes available on world market for import will be smaller. For the UK the Saudi statement has major implications given the rapid decline of N Sea output - where will we find the import volumes and how will we pay for them?

[Snugglybear]

Ah, so the king has realised that once the oil is gone, Saudi Arabia has got nothing. Very wise.

He's probably looked at Dubai's plans for a post-oil future (come here and shop!) and decided it might be a tad more practical to keep some of the black stuff in reserve.

Provided there is any, of course.

And provided he's allowed to.

Edited to add more paranoia.

Edited July 5, 2010 by Snugglybear

[Guest sillybear2]

Hrm, maybe there's nothing left to find? Also, just because you explore for oil doesn't mean you have to produce it, it's nice to have a map of proven reserves.

[Minos]

I read a report somewhere recently where one of the princes also suggested that the royal family leave Saudi very soon and take their wealth with them before the opportunity to disappears - i.e. an uprising of the population inhibits escape. He suggested the US and UK weren't suitable destinations and those countries were finished. He suggested Australia.

[Kurt Barlow]

It's hardly surprising that Saudi is indicating a change of policy whereby exploration activity is curtailed so as to preserve some of their oil reserves for future generations. Over the past 50 years population has risen 6 fold and Saudi now consumes around 25% of their oil production; trend to use more themselves is likely to continue and current gas shortages are forcing Saudi to use oil for electricity generation.

Moveover, some of us argue that the majority of Saudi oil production is coming from a few giant fields which are many decades old - the Saudi statement might be somewhat of a 'softening up process' so that oil importing nations can become used to the idea that future volumes available on world market for import will be smaller. For the UK the Saudi statement has major implications given the rapid decline of N Sea output - where will we find the import volumes and how will we pay for them?

There are a number of indicators that suggest Saudi Oil production is at high tide.

1. Development of Heavy Crude deposits that are difficult to process - Manifa being the big development this decade - which will ramp up to about 900kbd by 2020

2. Extensive exploration of the Red Sea - with some incredibly challenging geological conditions

3. Frequent references to efficiency / conservation in the domestic market (unheard of before) which I think is softening of the populace to start accepting removal of oil, gas, electricity subsidies - possibly even taxes.

4. Nuclear power roll out. Nukes could be incredibly efficient out there because the waste heat could be used for flash - desalination plants rather than gas / oil

Edit

5 - Whilst having my medical in April for a KSA visa I was talking to two mining engineers who were based out there. The Govt have opened the way for development of very big iron ore and gold mining operations in the Hejaz Mountains. They also said several other minerals there in strategic quantities.

Edited July 5, 2010 by Kurt Barlow

[huw]

Hrm, maybe there's nothing left to find? Also, just because you explore for oil doesn't mean you have to produce it, it's nice to have a map of proven reserves.

Yes. I agree with the second comment after the article:

This is not saving wealth but saving face. They know they are at Peak Oil, even though they say they are not and said they have plenty of reserves (280 billion). This is all a fabrication and the only way to cover this up is with the "save the oil for future generations" speech. They never cared before and who knows if we will even be burning fossil fuels in the future (some other technology might make it obsolete anyway).

Thus, this is the final admission that Saudi Arabia has hit peak. Something many people have already predicted. Still don't believe? Well, I guess the Saudis don't have to answer. Hummmm

[smiffy1967]

Bumping this

This is important

This is one of the many reasons, if not the most important reason why we will not see any real growth going forward

Oil supply is the big one,

s'nt it Mad that without a finite resource like oil our whole way of life ends forever.

Our economies are linked to cheap abundant oil, our monetary system is directly linked to expotential growth that will all but be impossible in a world of dwindling oil reserves, our just in time global food system relies entirley on cheap bunker fuel from oil and every 1 calorie of food you eat takes 10 calories of oil to produce.

Your food is'nt dripping in oilve oil, it is dripping in crude oil.

But the people we elect either chose to ignore this or simply dont understand it as they carry on BAU hoping that the magical market will magic up some kind of solution.

[zceb90]

But the people we elect either chose to ignore this or simply dont understand it as they carry on BAU hoping that the magical market will magic up some kind of solution.

They are locked into believing that 'the market will provide' and that 'money creates energy'. Those theories might appear to work on the upswing (which as far as crude oil supply is concerned has been from 1859 until approx 2005). We are now embarking upon the downswing (or the right hand side of Hubbert's curve of oil production). It may take some years but we are going to learn that actually 'energy creates money'. Less oil = less wealth.

[Guest sillybear2]

Money = energy tokens

Debt = claims on future energy reserves and production that doesn't exist.

[MrPin]

Ah, so the king has realised that once the oil is gone, Saudi Arabia has got nothing. Very wise.

An inexaustable supply of musical camels?

[Guest sillybear2]

An inexaustable supply of musical camels?

The present :-

The future :-

[Kurt Barlow]

Bumping this

This is important

This is one of the many reasons, if not the most important reason why we will not see any real growth going forward

Oil supply is the big one,

s'nt it Mad that without a finite resource like oil our whole way of life ends forever.

Our economies are linked to cheap abundant oil, our monetary system is directly linked to expotential growth that will all but be impossible in a world of dwindling oil reserves, our just in time global food system relies entirley on cheap bunker fuel from oil and every 1 calorie of food you eat takes 10 calories of oil to produce.

Your food is'nt dripping in oilve oil, it is dripping in crude oil.

But the people we elect either chose to ignore this or simply dont understand it as they carry on BAU hoping that the magical market will magic up some kind of solution.

This Norwegian Company are developing 10MW floating wind turbine. If it goes to plan should lower costs of offshore deployment and increase 100 fold the area of sea that can be exploited.

http://www.sway.no/?page=166

Given that our Nuclear programme is coming to nought - perhaps its back to renewables?

[Guest Steve Cook]

Money = energy tokens

Debt = claims on future energy reserves and production that doesn't exist.

....Is the right answer

The debts that have been racked up can never be paid. Which is why, of all the things that our governments could have done in this crisis, monetary loosening is the very worst.

Edited July 5, 2010 by Steve Cook

[Britney's Piers]

They are locked into believing that 'the market will provide'

Like the two hungry economists locked in a cupboard. "What are we going to have for lunch" asks one. "Don't worry, our demand will create the supply" replies the other.

[Guest Steve Cook]

Like the two hungry economists locked in a cupboard. "What are we going to have for lunch" asks one. "Don't worry, our demand will create the supply" replies the other.

exactly...

It makes a unusual and pleasant change to be able to agree on something with you for once.

[Crashman Begins]

Oil supply is the big one,

s'nt it Mad that without a finite resource like oil our whole way of life ends forever.

Our economies are linked to cheap abundant oil, our monetary system is directly linked to expotential growth that will all but be impossible in a world of dwindling oil reserves, .

Our economies have had cheap oil for a long time now.. what do you think was exchanged for this cheap oil ?

Edited July 6, 2010 by Crashman Begins

[Guest sillybear2]

Our economies have had cheap oil for a long time now.. what do you think was exchanged for this cheap oil ?

That's like celebrating because you had a great party, despite the fact nobody payed the bar tab and the club is now bankrupt.

[billybong]

Halt To Oil Exploration To Save Wealth

They've probably already drilled exploration holes all over Saudi Arabia so from the announcement it sounds like there's little or no more oil to be found so why waste money spending it on further fruitless exploration.

The interesting thing is why make that decision public now and broadcast it with all its implications. That is apart from possibly deciding to add to the fear of having already reached peak oil and the opportunity of increasing prices due to perceived shortages.

It's worded so that in the right circumstances (whatever they might be) they can always say hey we've started exploration again and wouldn't you just know it but we've found some more oil.

Edited July 7, 2010 by billybong

[_w_]

Has anyone here come across a well thought out detailed analysis of the potential social and economic implications of peak oil?

[bazzer]

Hrm, maybe there's nothing left to find? Also, just because you explore for oil doesn't mean you have to produce it, it's nice to have a map of proven reserves.

Yes this is the part I don't understand. Surely it would be better for them to keep exploring and discovering reserves so that there is confidence in the country. They don't have to drill a well just because it's found. Also, if they are planning for the future, shouldn't any plans for austerity be based on what they have remaining?

[_w_]

Yes this is the part I don't understand. Surely it would be better for them to keep exploring and discovering reserves so that there is confidence in the country. They don't have to drill a well just because it's found. Also, if they are planning for the future, shouldn't any plans for austerity be based on what they have remaining?

The tfh interpretation is that they've got no new reserves.

Can't think of a better one.

[Rare Bear]

The tfh interpretation is that they've got no new reserves.

Can't think of a better one.

New reserves or not, oil will be extracted wherever it is cheapest to extract. If new Saudi resreves are dicovered but they are more exoensice to extract than reserves found somewhere else the Saudi stuff will stay in the ground untill it becomes cheaper in comparison.

[Guest sillybear2]

Has anyone here come across a well thought out detailed analysis of the potential social and economic implications of peak oil?

The economic and social hierarchy will crumble first, so will any notion of private property, debts and claims on future output, forget about 'globalisation' and capital markets, it's simply a matter of population decline, and how that's handled. Look to nature where a species has over run its environmental carrying capacity, the first response is war / stealing from other territories, we're already at that stage.

No bureaucrat or economist can really contemplate these things, it's so far outside their comfort zones, all their accepted norms are premised on the availability of cheap, abundant oil, they simply cannot imagine a world any different, which is strange considering the exploitation of fossil fuels is merely a 200 year blip in the history human civilization. It's like all those plans and bunkers they used to have in case of a nuclear holocaust, entirely irrelevant and inadequate.

It's rather like the credit bubble, that sort of unsustainable insanity became accepted and 'normal' and when everything crashed back down to true normality people and politicians simply couldn't accept it, even now they still want to get back to the madness they now see as 'normal'. They cannot accept that things broke for a reason, that irrational behaviour has within it the seeds of its own destruction, hence the reason why they take to blaming the Gods and a bolt from the blue, "it started in America".

Edited July 7, 2010 by sillybear2

[_w_]

New reserves or not, oil will be extracted wherever it is cheapest to extract. If new Saudi resreves are dicovered but they are more exoensice to extract than reserves found somewhere else the Saudi stuff will stay in the ground untill it becomes cheaper in comparison.

That's the tactical supply/demand response but I would expect a much bigger impact than that. SA is the world's oil backstop, if the credibility of its 'unlimited reserves' is undermined I suspect the market would have a problem with that.