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VeryMeanReversion

Five More Years To Wait?

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Uk-unemployment-forecast-june-2010.gif

I read Nadeem Walayats blogs over at Market Oracle, seems reasonably good over the last few years. He unemployment and govt spending forecasts have been good but he missed the recent house price bounce until after the reversal was well underway.

The latest one Link has some unemployment forecasts. My expectation is that it is then at least two years after the peak before houses will become significantly cheaper due to forced sales. (in the absence of an interest rate shock - unlikely IMO)

This means a wait til at least 2015 with our savings being eaten away in the meantime. (18 years after I bought in the last low in 1997).

No wonder even perma-bears have been buying recently whilst interest rates are low.

VMR.

Edited by VeryMeanReversion

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This means a wait til at least 2015 with our savings being eaten away in the meantime. (18 years after I bought in the last low in 1997).

But if houses fall in price more than your savings fall, far from being eaten away they are buying you more of a house?

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Uk-unemployment-forecast-june-2010.gif

I read Nadeem Walayats blogs over at Market Oracle

His forcasts of FTSE and Dow have been so far off recently its comical, where is the so called "bear trap" now ??. Hes right about 50% of the time all told - no better than taking a random punt yourself.

To paraphrase the old saying "those that can, trade, those that cant, peddle market forcasts"

His stuff is just chartist porn. All this "head and shoulders"/"retracement"/"support"/"elliot wave" blah blah blah, all b******s ,(as forcasting tools anyway), all just perceived patterns after the fact, classic reinterpretation of past random/unforeseen events (which is basically what most markets are).

Edited by goldbug9999

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Uk-unemployment-forecast-june-2010.gif

I read Nadeem Walayats blogs over at Market Oracle, seems reasonably good over the last few years. He unemployment and govt spending forecasts have been good but he missed the recent house price bounce until after the reversal was well underway.

The latest one Link has some unemployment forecasts. My expectation is that it is then at least two years after the peak before houses will become significantly cheaper due to forced sales. (in the absence of an interest rate shock - unlikely IMO)

This means a wait til at least 2015 with our savings being eaten away in the meantime. (18 years after I bought in the last low in 1997).

No wonder even perma-bears have been buying recently whilst interest rates are low.

VMR.

You're assuming the housing market is rational and thus predictable then?

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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