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Oh, go on its my first one!

B) It must be today, it must it must!!!

Sorry to disappoint, but The FTSE fell over 2% on Thursday, whereas the DOW closed nearly level.

Expect the FTSE up around 1% this Friday.

I'd sooner call September as a black month, once people come back from hols i think the Autumn will be a downhill slide.

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Sorry to disappoint, but The FTSE fell over 2% on Thursday, whereas the DOW closed nearly level.

Ah, unfortunately i went for a curry and a few pints, and hence missed it...

Still, given the monkeys/ typewriters/ shakespeare theory, I'm more likely to be right than any previous people who posted and were wrong...

:unsure:

I think...

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Yup--grey Friday looks likely.

Even gold is bouncing back from the big sell-off today.

GOLD 07/01/2010 18:26 1200.70 1202.70 +1.30 +0.11%

Must have been a lot of unwinding of positions to close out the month.

Have to wait for Spain to default before we get anything exciting to move the markets.

ITMT the UK is the golden boy with post-election euphoria reaching fever pitch--HPC delayed at least another 6 months at this rate:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-01/u-k-gilts-rise-pound-falls-as-global-recovery-concerns-spur-safety-bids.html

U.K. bonds
have returned 3 percent since the May 6 election, compared with 1.4 percent from German bonds over that time, according to indexes from Bank of America Corp’s Merrill Lynch unit. The election brought to power Prime Minister David Cameron who pledged deep spending cuts, saying the U.K. may face the same fate as Greece should it not lower its deficit.
Standard Life Investments’ Philip Laing beat other bond investors in the first half by switching money into U.K. debt just before a recovery prompted by the new government’s bid to lower the deficit and avoid a downgrade.
His $14 billion SLTM U.K. Government Bond Fund gained 5.5 percent this year after he moved money from euro-region debt into gilts. That made it the best performer among 20 government bond funds based in Europe with more than $1 billion to invest,
“The U.K. is in the process of being rerated” by bond investors, Laing said. “Last year the U.K. was a laggard. We got the benefit from not being in the U.K. when it was being pushed down, and turning that around when the country was being reassessed.”

What concerns me is that the markets are reacting to claims that its contained and that the austerity program will work. Is our position in the world THAT strong? If the EZ goes down where do our exports go? Data today already pointed to a sharp fall in exports and that is not good for jobs or the recovery.

We may be in the situation where the market is behaving like a chicken with its head cut off--directionless and desperate to go somewhere but it does not know where before it keels over dead.

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We may be in the situation where the market is behaving like a chicken with its head cut off--directionless and desperate to go somewhere but it does not know where before it keels over dead.

It does look like it, nice metaphor.

Not sure about that end of month though, wasn't month end on Wednesday?

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FWIW, my take on what's happening is that it is linked to EU stress tests. Euro banks may well be deleveraging in anticipation of the publication of the results to reduce capital requirements.

From the piece below we may have another couple of weeks of this.

The European Council's conclusions on regulating financial services, issued on June 17, include an approximate date for the disclosure of the 2010 stress-testing results. "The necessary reforms to restore the soundness and stability of the European financial system must be completed urgently," the report says. "The resilience and transparency of the banking sector must be ensured. Progress in the next few months is essential. The European Council agrees the results of ongoing stress tests by banking supervisors will be disclosed at the latest in the second half of July."

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Ah. As soon as someone posts one of these threads it won't happen.

I thought tomorrow would be a down day, but having seen this I'm now going for Dow +200.

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Ah. As soon as someone posts one of these threads it won't happen.

I thought tomorrow would be a down day, but having seen this I'm now going for Dow +200.

Its non-farm payrolls in the US today. Consensus is for a drop of 130K workers last month. This is usually a market mover.

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BP will come out with some good news about the relief well.

US job figures will be positive , the private sector will have hired more than predicted.

The miners will be well up on the aussie tax news.

I see a 2.5% up day on the ftse.

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Maybe not today but its been a blackish week no doubt with bigger clouds looming for the world as capitalism is taking a lashing as truths are exposed, soon the people will get angry then the real fun will begin as they realize they are affected when they see that their pension funds have been decimated /plundered as the rich get richer and the rest of us can go to hell as far as they are concerned and work till they drop.

Interesting times to be alive and witness whats coming our way.

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Guest Steve Cook

Maybe not today but its been a blackish week no doubt with bigger clouds looming for the world as capitalism is taking a lashing as truths are exposed, soon the people will get angry then the real fun will begin as they realize they are affected when they see that their pension funds have been decimated /plundered as the rich get richer and the rest of us can go to hell as far as they are concerned and work till they drop.

Interesting times to be alive and witness whats coming our way.

Personally, I would have preferred to live in boring times and been wittness to bugger all.

However, since we are where we are, a correction is sorely needed and so wittnessing this whole debt-ridden house of cards come crashing down has it's own dark appeal, if Im honest

Edited by Steve Cook

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Guest Steve Cook

Funny, I thought it would shoot up massively this morning. It appeared to be doing just that for the first minute but seems to have stalled. I would hazard a guess that if it doesn't shoot up in the next hour it's not going to do much at all until the DOW opens at 2pm

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Guest Steve Cook

On what Steve? :unsure:

On bugger all really.

Indeed, the stock market seems to be based on nothing more than just short-term speculative volatilty at the moment. If someone sneezes at the wrong time, it tends to go ape-shit in either direction.

On that basis I sort of expected a bounce as a reaction to yesterday's sell-off. Doesn't appear to have happened though....

Edited by Steve Cook

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Guest Steve Cook

You subconsciously touch on an important subject there.

I think the start of a Black Day thread says more about the poster's mood than anything else.

Most often this mood is affected by recent events in the past and the professionals know this and are able to game people accordingly, pushing their moods around until they no longer know what to think.

Sometimes on occasion though, the Black Day comes from seemingly nowhere which has one of two possibilities. One, the OP is out of step with popular sentiment or; two, I am out of kilter with such sentiment.

Today is one of those days. I have no idea which way it will go. I would not be surprised if it collapsed or shot to the stars. Certainly no sense of foreboding though.

This pretty much sums up my completly ignorant of any material facts feeling aswell .....:lol:

I should say though, I get the feeling if it was going to rally stongly today, it would have done so it right from the off and wouldn't have stalled so quickly. So, if I were a betting man (which I'm not) I would guess that the odds have moved to a negative end to the day somewhat

Edited by Steve Cook

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Maybe not today but its been a blackish week no doubt with bigger clouds looming for the world as capitalism is taking a lashing as truths are exposed, soon the people will get angry then the real fun will begin as they realize they are affected when they see that their pension funds have been decimated /plundered as the rich get richer and the rest of us can go to hell as far as they are concerned and work till they drop.

Interesting times to be alive and witness whats coming our way.

Depends what they have invested those funds in. Anyone holding cash can cheer the FTSE all the way down, and buy in at the bottom.

The trouble is, it's all too easy to be panicked after a fall and sell, only to buy back into the recovereh and get stung again by the double dip.

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Depends what they have invested those funds in. Anyone holding cash can cheer the FTSE all the way down, and buy in at the bottom.

The trouble is, it's all too easy to be panicked after a fall and sell, only to buy back into the recovereh and get stung again by the double dip.

Where's the bottom?

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FTSE 100 4820.17+0.30%

For now, the sovereign debt crisis has been resolved with plenty of funding for bonds in the EZ. On the other hand, the reality in the market has been reflected by the news coming from the US where the double-dip is now on.

Our bad news has been moderate in the sense that the market is turning negative (exports down, underlying unemployment at record fro 20 years, factory orders down) but nothing by way of market triggering bad news. HPI is still more or less on track with almost immeasurable small drops from the LR (-0.2%). ON the face of it, it would appear to the markets that the UK is well-placed to miss the troubles occurring everywhere else in the world and may be viewed as the new safe haven. IN other words, Brown may have done a good job in leaving behind a nation well-placed etc etc.....

But we all know that the reality is different. It will take a few more months for the poisons to come hatching out of the mud again.

That said, my bet is it will be a moderately down day for the DOW and FTSE (FTSE off 1-1.5% and the Dow down 1.5-1.76%). But I wouldn't put any money on that. I am only about 3% in stocks and quite pleased with that.

On the other hand, the beast is awake again:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/spectre-of-an-economic-relapse-stalks-markets-as-china-wobbles-tele-3d1909084416.html?x=0

Fears of an economic relapse across the world have begun to stalk markets again after pending homes sales in the US crashed by a third and a slew of weak data from China and Japan sent bourses tumbling across Asia.

The credit system is once again flashing warnings of extreme fragility, with the yield on 10-year US Treasuries plummeting back to crisis-levels of 2.89pc.Japan's 10-year bond dropped to 1.06pc, the lowest since the country's deflation battle seven years ago. Tokyo's Nikkei (news) stock index tumbled to the lowest level since 2005 as safe-haven flight into the yen surged to levels that leave many Japanese exporters underwater.

"Double-dip is back in the lexicon," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC (LSE: HSBA.L - news) . "Everybody hoped that China's huge fiscal package would keep global growth going long enough for the West to recover, but it does not look like that is happening.

Deflationary trends in US bond market. Japan still in a deflationary mode although some on here do not believe deflation can exist and is, in fact, a mythological state of being.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Steve Cook

Where's the bottom?

Rolling blackouts

Civil unrest

A police state

Food costs representing by far the largest portion of your expenditure

A return to unambiguous serfdom

Global resource wars

Possibly in as little as a decade

30 years at the outside

I'll get my coat.....

Edited by Steve Cook

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FTSE 100 4820.17+0.30%

For now, the sovereign debt crisis has been resolved with plenty of funding for bonds in the EZ. On the other hand, the reality in the market has been reflected by the news coming from the US where the double-dip is now on.

Our bad news has been moderate in the sense that the market is turning negative (exports down, underlying unemployment at record fro 20 years, factory orders down) but nothing by way of market triggering bad news. HPI is still more or less on track with almost immeasurable small drops from the LR (-0.2%). ON the face of it, it would appear to the markets that the UK is well-placed to miss the troubles occurring everywhere else in the world and may be viewed as the new safe haven. IN other words, Brown may have done a good job in leaving behind a nation well-placed etc etc.....

But we all know that the reality is different. It will take a few more months for the poisons to come hatching out of the mud again.

That said, my bet is it will be a moderately down day for the DOW and FTSE (FTSE off 1-1.5% and the Dow down 1.5-1.76%). But I wouldn't put any money on that. I am only about 3% in stocks and quite pleased with that.

I'm only about 0% in stocks and delieriously happy with that...:)

Edited by Steve Cook

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Guest Steve Cook

Where's your sense of adventure? :P

I'm 21% in stocks, with cash on the side lines, although I keep hearing the calling from Gold coins!

I find that being inherently chicken-shit tends to engender a somewhat cautious investment psychology on my part........:lol:

Edited by Steve Cook

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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