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Fox News on Hurricane Katrina

24% of Natural Gas and Crude Oil used by the USA is pumped from the New Orleans region.

Rigs were shut down and evacuated on Saturday.

In addition 1/6th of imported oil comes through the port of New Orleans.

This will disrupt the production of oil in the USA. In comparison IVAN disrupted the production of 11 million barrels.

One reporter is predicting Oil to rise to $100 a barrel on the back of this Hurricane.

This will increase UK petrol prices at the pump to somewhere around £1.40 a Ltr.

What would an immediate jump like this do to the UK economy?

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Fox News on Hurricane Katrina

24% of Natural Gas and Crude Oil used by the USA is pumped from the New Orleans region.

Rigs were shut down and evacuated on Saturday.

In addition 1/6th of imported oil comes through the port of New Orleans.

This will disrupt the production of oil in the USA. In comparison IVAN disrupted the production of 11 million barrels.

One reporter is predicting Oil to rise to $100 a barrel on the back of this Hurricane.

This will increase UK petrol prices at the pump to somewhere around £1.40 a Ltr.

What would an immediate jump like this do to the UK economy?

Let's see if there's much rig damage. Evacuating a rig will cause temporary high prices, but if there's no or little damage they can soon be manned again.

If there's structural damage, which is likely, that's a whole different scenario. :ph34r:

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
What would an immediate jump like this do to the UK economy?

Could cause a bigger downturn in retail spending as the consumers cut out more of the luxuries to keep their cars running.

A nice bonus filler for the magicians black hole.

Off topic but

BBC news this morning interviewing a guy who got into organising boot sales in 1987 as a living.

He said they really took off in the last recession and afterwards tapered off. He has observed in the past year that once again they are growing very fast.

A sure sign of people trying to raise money when times are hard.

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despite all this weather effect, i think we were well on the way to £1.20 a litre by the end of the year.

even then, i do not expect the general public to be able to associate this inflation with the inflation piled onto their properties.

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Could cause a bigger downturn in retail spending as the consumers cut out more of the luxuries to keep their cars running.

A nice bonus filler for the magicians black hole.

Off topic but

BBC news this morning interviewing a guy who got into organising boot sales in 1987 as a living.

He said they really took off in the last recession and afterwards tapered off. He has observed in the past year that once again they are growing very fast.

A sure sign of people trying to raise money when times are hard.

Indeed. My hard-up sister-in-law raised a much needed £70 yesterday!

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If a rig suffers significant structural damage it could months to repair, lose one and your looking at at least a year more likely two years to replace. It is unlikely to happen because hurricans would have taken into account when the rigs wehere designed (hopefully there were no corners cut <_< ). At least there is no one (or very few) on the rigs.

Systems damage on the other hand is more likely. Lots of stuff strapped to rigs and it could get damaged. From what I know about them (folks in the oil industry) I suspect few of the rigs will be slow back into production as 'minor' damage is repaired. If the repairs are rushed, not unlikely under the present circumstances, then we may see rigs go back out of use later as repairs break or are brought up to standard.

$100 a barrel is starting to look a real possibility! So £1.40 a litre is also possible. All those quotes of £1.00 a litre by Christmas could look a bit optimistic :( . As Casual Observer pointed out Car Boot sales are going to be very popular. Last time oil spiked like this in the 70's unemployment wnet through 10%. It is currently ~3%. You are looking at about 2m people loosing their jobs if that happened.

Edited by FTBagain

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this morning interviewing a guy who got into organising boot sales in 1987 as a living.

He said they really took off in the last recession and afterwards tapered off. He has observed in the past year that once again they are growing very fast.

A sure sign of people trying to raise money when times are hard.

Could have a point there, attended such a boot sale this weekend and saw a chappie selling his 2001 Lexus for £8K, times is hard.

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Guest Riser
If a rig suffers significant structural damage it could months to repair, lose one and your looking at at least a year more likely two years to replace. It is unlikely to happen because hurricans would have taken into account when the rigs wehere designed (hopefully there were no corners cut  <_<  ). At least there is no one (or very few) on the rigs.

Systems damage on the other hand is more likely. Lots of stuff strapped to rigs and it could get damaged. From what I know about them (folks in the oil industry) I suspect few of the rigs will be slow back into production as 'minor' damage is repaired. If the repairs are rushed, not unlikely under the present circumstances, then we may see rigs go back out of use later as repairs break or are brought up to standard.

$100 a barrel is starting to look a real possibility! So £1.40 a litre is also possible. All those quotes of £1.00 a litre by Christmas could look a bit optimistic :(  . As Casual Observer pointed out Car Boot sales are going to be very popular. Last time oil spiked like this in the 70's unemployment wnet through 10%. It is currently ~3%. You are looking at about 2m people loosing their jobs if that happened.

Here is a post I found last night on ADVFN, its not just the Rigs but the onshore facilities and dredging of shipping channels that will become full of silt, it could take more than six months to get beck to full production. Katrins is almost a CAT5 and is much bigger than any other storm in recorded history

hoobie - 28 Aug'05 - 18:47 - 375 of 379

This article is a couple of months old but worth reading - scary stuff considering this is pretty much where Katrina is heading.

Obscure Louisiana port linchpin for U.S. energy

03 Jun 2005 23:26:55 GMT

HOUSTON, June 3 (Reuters) - On the edge of Louisiana's vast coastal marshlands, 70 miles southwest of New Orleans, about the only thing convenient to Port Fourchon is the central Gulf of Mexico.

But despite the obscurity, those waters are the most important energy-producing region of the United States, and over the years oil field services companies have consolidated their operations there.

The nearby Louisiana Offshore Oil Port is the only direct link for vast supertankers to the mainland. Its pipes also run through Port Fourchon en route to refineries and, eventually, the nation's fuel tanks.

The port's location leaves it vulnerable to storms and other disruptions related to access. So what if it were hit by a major storm or another catastrophe?

It would quickly become part of the American consciousness because prices at gasoline pumps would skyrocket.

A movie premiering Sunday night on Fox's FX network, "Oil Storm," contemplates such a scenario.

The film's producers envision a major hurricane at Port Fourchon, a disaster at the refinery-lined Houston Ship Channel and foreign producer-nation unrest colliding to drive short-term crude and gasoline prices to more than triple current levels.

"There's a whole lot of eggs in one basket," said Allen Verret, executive director of the Offshore Operators Committee, an association of businesses that work in the U.S. Gulf, referring to Port Fourchon.

Dave Pursell, research principal at Pickering Energy Partners Inc., consulted on the film and said the sequence of events is plausible, if spectacular.

"In the summer when imports tend to be at the highest levels of the year, there's a lot that can happen and it doesn't take a wildly unbelievable scenario," he said.

ISOLATION

"Our port plays a role somewhere between 16 and 18 percent of the total oil supply," said Ted Falgout, director of Port Fourchon, explaining that 13 percent of the nation's foreign oil flows through and servicing companies keep 27 percent of the domestic supply pumping.

"At today's prices, through the pipelines coming through the port right now, is about $100 million a day worth of oil."

Hurricane Ivan reminded the industry of Port Fourchon's vulnerability last September when it roared through the Gulf, cutting 45 million barrels of U.S. oil production.

Even though it landed well east in Alabama, Ivan still caused minor silt buildup that required dredging. A closer landfall could cripple the port, cutting it off from the U.S. Gulf.

"If a Category 3 or 4 really hit (Fourchon), it could take three or four months to dredge it, and that's from the day the dredge showed up," said Edmond Russo, operations manager for the Army Corps of Engineers. One dredge working for 30 days could cost around $3 million, assuming a vessel is available.

The vital highway that brings an average 1,000 trucks per day into the port is vulnerable to high water.

"This highway is sitting between this nation's two most rapidly eroding estuaries, and the southern portion of it is extremely vulnerable," Falgout said.

It will be at least three years before the eight-mile stretch of two-lane highway becomes a safer four-lane road rising above the wetlands.

Until then, the port that supports half the Gulf's drilling rigs and 75 percent of deepwater production could be crippled if the road washes out for any length of time, Falgout said.

"The ability to efficiently service or support this (drilling and production) activity in the Gulf does not exist anywhere else," he said.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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