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Nolan Show - J Davis On Now - 35Mins In!

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I'm at work. What was he saying?

TBH - I find his personality very abrasive and difficult to listen to. He shouts others down and his confrontational style makes me think his meesage would get across a bit better if he was calmer.

Otherwise, I usually agree with what he has said. However in the eyes of the general public he is the bloke who has been on for a few years now talking about a massive crash that hasn't really happened.

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Who are you talking about? Nolan is abrasive, but hasn't been predicting the massive crash, people come on his show, like JD, and talk about it.

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I'm at work. What was he saying?

TBH - I find his personality very abrasive and difficult to listen to. He shouts others down and his confrontational style makes me think his meesage would get across a bit better if he was calmer.

Otherwise, I usually agree with what he has said. However in the eyes of the general public he is the bloke who has been on for a few years now talking about a massive crash that hasn't really happened.

It should be on iplayer in a couple of days.

IIRC JD predicted 70% falls for Northern Ireland and was ridiculed on Nolan's tv show just before the crash, so far with 50% falls with more to come he's been spot on for our market.

As far as his prediction go the rest of the UK looks like its going into a double dip crash so only time will tell.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00sx32w

46mns in

Tom McClelland - Prices stabilised, bottom is bumpy, investors comming back in

JD - Way to go down, banks aren't lending, more houses coming onto market, supply>demand, costs going up, public spending reduction, only one way to go in long term.

Nolan - Average price reduction astonishing

TMcC - 40% correction on the bottom now

Caller - rates on empty house, people left house can't afford rates, have to sell for nothing, not thought out, wreck building trade

Nolan - Sammy has to find money somewhere!

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JD was on 5Live last month and IMO he came across really badly. He shouted the other people down, talked over them and his approach is a bit too loud for my liking. I just don't think he comes across well at times. Shoot me for it if you want - I agree with most of what he say, but I prefer to listen to reasoned arguements as opposed to a shouting match.

We all know SN is a tool.

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"Prices will be bumpy"

Is this new lingo now being used by bulls? :lol:

And listen to the clown with the second house. :rolleyes: Pay your rates you tosser and stop moaning.

Edited by pajd

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JD was on 5Live last month and IMO he came across really badly. He shouted the other people down, talked over them and his approach is a bit too loud for my liking. I just don't think he comes across well at times. Shoot me for it if you want - I agree with most of what he say, but I prefer to listen to reasoned arguements as opposed to a shouting match.

We all know SN is a tool.

+1

Message gets lost in the delivery

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JD was on 5Live last month and IMO he came across really badly. He shouted the other people down, talked over them and his approach is a bit too loud for my liking. I just don't think he comes across well at times. Shoot me for it if you want - I agree with most of what he say, but I prefer to listen to reasoned arguements as opposed to a shouting match.

We all know SN is a tool.

I didn't hear that one, but in the past he has been a bit too reserved and didn't get the message across either. It takes experience at these things to 'look good', especially when you are trying to undo years of brain washing by VIs. JD is one of a few HPCers putting his opinions on the media, most others including myself shy away from the limelight. You can see how his approach is changing and getting more refined over time, and he should be applauded for standing up for the truth in the face of so many public speaking VIs. He's certainly doing a better job than I could, if you think you can do better the media is always looking for non-VI representatives, but they openly admit they are very hard to come by.

Unfortunately it is the people who spend they efforts 'looking good' are the ones most followers listen to. The People who spend their efforts providing the correct analysis are not listened to... Another problem I shall fix in time.

Edited by Ride_on

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He's certainly doing a better job than I could, if you think you can do better the media is always looking for non-VI representatives, but they openly admit they are very hard to come by.

... people were here asking for a representitive for NI HPC to go on these shows. Nobody was brave enough to do it.

JD told me that Nolan tells him not to hold back. I guess - the more controversial the better for shows ratings. Remember - the VI's used to laugh at JD's predictions on that show. Respect to JD. They are not laughing now. B)

Anyone with a little common sense can now see that 70% off peak is entirely possible.

My prediction is still a nominal fall of 60%-70% from peak, taking 3-7years.

For house prices to 'bottom' at 60% there needs to be wage inflation. Correct me if I am wrong - but 40% of the Northern Ireland work force have just had a 2 year pay freeze. And that work force supports another 20%-30% of our economy. David Cameron has admitted it is actually a pay cut due to inflation running a over 3%.

Don't listen to the VI's. Just give it a few more years and you will see that JD was right all along. It has certainly been worth the wait so far.

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When people say drops of 40%/50% I assume this is a blanket taking into account all of Northern Ireland, so certain regions will see larger falls than others. By what prices would you say property in popular Belfast areas such as Castlereagh, Cregagh have fallen?

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When people say drops of 40%/50% I assume this is a blanket taking into account all of Northern Ireland, so certain regions will see larger falls than others. By what prices would you say property in popular Belfast areas such as Castlereagh, Cregagh have fallen?

I would imagine a lot more than areas such as Lisburn rd and Malone. But then again you can't really tell how much actual prices have fallen without a significant quantity of sales. There are going to be local variations. I think we definitely need a system like the land registry across the water to give actual sales values.

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JD sounded likwe he smells blood - the EA VI seemed a bit frightened, trotting hackneyed arguments and sounding unconvinced

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By what prices would you say property in popular Belfast areas such as Castlereagh, Cregagh have fallen?

I would say that property types will fall by different percentage rates i.e. apartments/flats will fall more than family homes. Certain areas will be falling from a higher price point, but essentially the same fundamentals apply. Therefore, I think, all areas will fall by similar percentage amounts. So far Belfast/Lisburn may have been less effected due to a more stable jobs market. I wonder will they catch up when the cuts start to bite?

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In the Q2 2007 report average belfast house prices were £300,229 and in Q2 2010 £191,536.

So Belfast prices have only fallen 36% in the last 3 years compared to 43.5% on average. Therefore, some areas must have fallen 50%.

However, the average drop in value is £99k compared to a drop of £108k in Belfast. So while Belfast has fallen less in precentage terms - property in Belfast has lost more money. It is all relative.

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Actually Belfast house prices peaked in Q3 2007 at £312,637.

So Belfast house prices have fallen by £121,101 or 38.7%.

So not as big a difference as I first thought.

£121k loss for anyone who bought at the peak - ouch :ph34r:

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I think the crash tends to ripple through the different values of properties as the owners of higher value homes can usually wait longer for a sale. They tend to chase the market down more.

Of course alot of properties are also owned by developers who made it big during the boom so they can also wait. Banks are also allowing owners to wait longer and not pay their mortgage, all for the long awaited recovery. Sooner or later they will realise it isn't happening.

Considering the question about Belfast, I think its source is wages and more of Belfast earners are involved in public service than any other town, so the cuts are going to have a bigger effect in theory. Having said that I don't have any number of employment for public service across the country, just an assumption that the capital will have a higher proportion.

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I think the big shocks in belfast wont come until we have much higher interest rates. There's plenty of stock around but no pressure on owners to sell.

I don't think we need higher interest rates. As Belfast VI is fond of telling me banks are still charging around 5% mortage interest even though the BoE rate is 0.5%. However, the SLS and CGS are keeping the banks off peoples' backs. If the banks are forced to repay all the money then credit will dry up and they will need to liquidate assets. Therefore, the banks will be trying to repossess and sell while at the same time restricting mortgage availability to buy. This will be the perfect storm.

Housing market meet...

33msx1147_b.jpg

:lol::lol::lol:

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In the Q2 2007 report average belfast house prices were £300,229 and in Q2 2010 £191,536.

So Belfast prices have only fallen 36% in the last 3 years compared to 43.5% on average. Therefore, some areas must have fallen 50%.

However, the average drop in value is £99k compared to a drop of £108k in Belfast. So while Belfast has fallen less in precentage terms - property in Belfast has lost more money. It is all relative.

You need to look at the areas that have increased the most during the boom. Generally this will be west of the bann and other areas like portadown. Within Belfast there are markets within markets and we all know areas that have rissen faster other areas. These areas, often described as up-and-coming areas, such as the Donegal Road, the Crumlin Road etc will, in my view fall the most within Belfast.

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You need to look at the areas that have increased the most during the boom. Generally this will be west of the bann and other areas like portadown. Within Belfast there are markets within markets and we all know areas that have rissen faster other areas. These areas, often described as up-and-coming areas, such as the Donegal Road, the Crumlin Road etc will, in my view fall the most within Belfast.

Certainly the areas which grew the fastest will fall most. However I see a rolling effect where people decide that while an area is not quite as nice or as close to work that the saving that can be made makes it worth while

eg if you get a large 4 bed detached house in Craigavon for the same price as a flat in Belfast, some people will choose Craigavon and demand for flats in Belfast will be lower.

just an off the cuff example ;)

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  • 153 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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