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*breaking News* Aug House Prices Fall 3.7 Pct Y/y

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LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - House prices in England and Wales fell for the 14th straight month in August for an annual rate of decline of 3.7 percent, a survey showed on Monday. Research company Hometrack said its measure of average house prices based on agreed sales reported by estate agents showed a month-on-month fall of 0.1 percent in August, after a decline of 0.2 percent in July. The national average house price fell to 161,000 pounds in August -- the lowest since November 2003.

Hometrack said the Bank of England's quarter-point interest rate cut to 4.5 percent earlier this month had not appeared to help the housing market.

"House prices have failed to respond to the recent interest rate cut and continue their stagnating negative trend, which has now gone on for well over a year," Hometrack housing economist John Wriglesworth said in a statement.

"While there is still little chance of a crash, another housing boom is unlikely for at least the next three years. Over the short term, sluggish but stable is the most likely scenario," he said.

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LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - House prices in England and Wales fell for the 14th straight month in August for an annual rate of decline of 3.7 percent, a survey showed on Monday. Research company Hometrack said its measure of average house prices based on agreed sales reported by estate agents showed a month-on-month fall of 0.1 percent in August, after a decline of 0.2 percent in July. The national average house price fell to 161,000 pounds in August -- the lowest since November 2003.

Hometrack said the Bank of England's quarter-point interest rate cut to 4.5 percent earlier this month had not appeared to help the housing market.

"House prices have failed to respond to the recent interest rate cut and continue their stagnating negative trend, which has now gone on for well over a year," Hometrack housing economist John Wriglesworth said in a statement.

"While there is still little chance of a crash, another housing boom is unlikely for at least the next three years. Over the short term, sluggish but stable is the most likely scenario," he said.

The report we've been waiting for, wriggleworm dosn't know his a** from his elbow, well ok he does but he is so VI he can't say the inevitable.

EDITED:

Got a link loanshark?

Edited by theChuz

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"At least 3 years". Lovely jubbly. None of this "we've reached the bottom" mularky. Proper acknowledgement of a bear market, even if they can't quite bring themselves to accept that real price falls are very likely. The jigsaw's all coming into place quite nicely.

Next move up for interest rates will kill the market stone dead after this month's false hope.

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another housing boom is unlikely for at least the next three years

HPC has probably become Wriggly's prime research resource in the absence of any original thinking on his part.

Three years will take us to 2008 and many of us on this forum have been predicting that the next trough in prices will be 2008-2010. I suggest that HPC writes his forecasts from now on because the guy clearly hasn't a clue as to the future of the property market.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Hometrack said the Bank of England's quarter-point interest rate cut to 4.5 percent earlier this month had not appeared to help the housing market.

This just in, fire is hot!

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HPC has probably become Wriggly's prime research resource in the absence of any original thinking on his part.

Three years will take us to 2008 and many of us on this forum have been predicting that the next trough in prices will be 2008-2010. I suggest that HPC writes his forecasts from now on because the guy clearly hasn't a clue as to the future of the property market.

I think he knows full well what is happening and what will happen, the problem is that he's can't say it for whatever reason. Anyone with an ounce of economic sense can see bad things on the horizon.

He has to be abit careful now though since he has ranted about it wont crash, if he hints that it will then it will drive sentiment down and become a self forfilling prophecy - thats what they are all trying to avoid. No point being a VI on the otherside of the debate if your not going to do it properly.

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LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters)

"While there is still little chance of a crash, another housing boom is unlikely for at least the next three years.

"Past performance is no guide to the future".

So why predict another boom?

The next "New Paradigm" might be, well who knows?

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"Past performance is no guide to the future".

So why predict another boom?

The next "New Paradigm" might be, well who knows?

Agree. from my memory confidence in housing changed with the climate.

The sort of house you could buy from 1993 - 1999 was impressive by

todays standards. nobody seemed worried / bothered. Got the

impression price would mull around for a while.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I suggest that HPC writes his forecasts from now on because the guy clearly hasn't a clue as to the future of the property market.

I think the good Dr Bubb should write his statements for him. For a small consultancy fee of course. ;)

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No point being a VI on the otherside of the debate if your not going to do it properly.

Good point.

The VIs have an extremely difficult job ahead of them; in their own interests they need to keep the market going, but the imperative is to gently deflate vendors unrealistic aspirations based on 2004 prices which are no longer achievable. At the same time they dare not cause panic and start an early 90's style rout.

Houses are 50% over-valued and it will require a 33% drop to restore historical fundamentals. The drop is inevitable and the VI spin machinery somehow has to manage that extreme challenge.

Edited by Red Baron

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What's the betting this will get minimal media coverage. Now its YOY they'll compare the rise over 3 or 5 years instead.

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LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - House prices in England and Wales fell for the 14th straight month in August for an annual rate of decline of 3.7 percent, a survey showed on Monday. Research company Hometrack said its measure of average house prices based on agreed sales reported by estate agents showed a month-on-month fall of 0.1 percent in August, after a decline of 0.2 percent in July. The national average house price fell to 161,000 pounds in August -- the lowest since November 2003.

Hometrack said the Bank of England's quarter-point interest rate cut to 4.5 percent earlier this month had not appeared to help the housing market.

"House prices have failed to respond to the recent interest rate cut and continue their stagnating negative trend, which has now gone on for well over a year," Hometrack housing economist John Wriglesworth said in a statement.

"While there is still little chance of a crash, another housing boom is unlikely for at least the next three years. Over the short term, sluggish but stable is the most likely scenario," he said.

That really is quite grim.

Average down 3.7% on the year - an average of roughly -0.3% per month right across England and Wales (although we should bear in mind we are talking about asking prices only not sales prices).

Add in inflation of 2-3% and we can say around a 6% real terms correction over the year (plus any widening of the average discount - I believe this adds another couple of percent). So, maybe 8% or so correction for the year using Wriglesworth's numbers.

Thank God there is no "crash" though!

And the average is now the same as November 2003 - that is, no increase over a period of almost two years (and a fall in real terms over this period).

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What's the betting this will get minimal media coverage. Now its YOY they'll compare the rise over 3 or 5 years instead.

Acgtually it is on the BBC website. First they have put Hometrack report on their site for 3 or 4 months, at least. On a busy day too! Things are really changing. :)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4193008.stm

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Acgtually it is on the BBC website. First they have put Hometrack report on their site for 3 or 4 months, at least. On a busy day too! Things are really changing. :)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4193008.stm

edit - talking BS

Edited by kinesin

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Into the melting pot of what will happen in the next few years (or more) one should not forget the number of people approaching retirement still with quite large mortgages (having MEWed a few times over the last 25 years for cars, holidays and home improvements) - who are facing an endowment shortfall.

I know a couple of people with 100k mortgages who thought the endowment would produce a big bonus to cover all their MEWing. In fact endowments they thought would produce 80k (and hoped in their wildest dreams would produce 100k) are actually only going to produce 40k. So the tax free bit of their pensions is going to be used up paying off their mortgages or, they will be selling up in their droves and looking to downsize.

But as there have been bugger all FTBs for quite a while - there will be no-one looking to upsize.

Result - a crunch in the market where 4 bed detacheds come down in price but there is still pressure at the bottom of the market.

Where will it all end?

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And the next item of news to follow Hometrack's is...............

No estate agent's job is safe at the moment,all the way from the junior to the senior.

You've seen it here first.

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Guest The dude
Good point.

The VIs have an extremely difficult job ahead of them; in their own interests they need to keep the market going, but the imperative is to gently deflate vendors unrealistic aspirations based on 2004 prices which are no longer achievable. At the same time they dare not cause panic and start an early 90's style rout.

Houses are 50% over-valued and it will require a 33% drop to restore historical fundamentals. The drop is inevitable and the VI spin machinery somehow has to manage that extreme challenge.

I'll be very happy with a 30% drop.....it's possible I may be able to afford a house then.

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What's the betting this will get minimal media coverage. Now its YOY they'll compare the rise over 3 or 5 years instead.

I'll bet there will be some sort of spin in the other direction tomorrow,

or the next day. 'Re-opening coal mines; houses in these areas to double

in price over the next year', sort of thing!

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how well over 6% ? 

6.5% ?

9% ?

15% ?????

rather vague as usual........

No, he'll stick to "well over 6%". And he'll do it next year, and the year after, and the year after... So there's 20-30% or so worth of falls over the next three years, and all without him claiming he eever changed his stance.

Nomadd

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I hope that someone is keeping a track of what hometrack were saying before the house price slowdown till now. I'm sure Wriggles was saying before that prices are gonna go up and now that wording has now changed to "stagnation and slow growth". Does anyone have a record of his words in the 18 months or so?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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