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the flying pig

Telegraph 'your Money' Blog - "why House Prices Must Fall By 28 Per Cent"

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"As pointed out in this space before, it might be wiser for prospective first-time buyers to wait before they buy and save a bigger deposit while prices fall."

It's good to see an article written by a realist.

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comment added:

It is also vital to remember that over the last 15 years the wages of the average FTB have risen to about 40% higher than the average earner - something like over £35k compared to £25k. 15 years ago they were almost exactly equal.

I would also speculate that the quality & size of 'average ftb house' will have dropped substantially.

It is well past time that we started to do what most of the world does, and measure housing costs per square meter of usable space.

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This is the same guy whom received a tonne of negative comments on his latest housing-related article.

Has he got it now? New editorial line?

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Has he got it now?

A couple of weeks ago he wrote "people who fail to understand the importance of credit and house price inflation in the creation of wealth are either very naive or perhaps living under hedges on a diet of roots and berries"

Today he writes "by this measure of housing affordability, prices would have to fall by 28 per cent from the their current level to reach the long term average since 1983 for first-time buyers."

I don't know what he gets or why he writes what he does...stupidity, editorial line, pandering to his readership?

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Guest sillybear2

A couple of weeks ago he wrote "people who fail to understand the importance of credit and house price inflation in the creation of wealth are either very naive or perhaps living under hedges on a diet of roots and berries"

Today he writes "by this measure of housing affordability, prices would have to fall by 28 per cent from the their current level to reach the long term average since 1983 for first-time buyers."

I don't know what he gets or why he writes what he does...stupidity, editorial line, pandering to his readership?

How does stealing from the future and your children "create" wealth?

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The prices are being kept high, we all know that they just can't keep it going the economy is too fraged to keep having increases in all assest prices. They can't fight against the market forces , seems to me that politicians and bankers seem to think they can control, yet the signs suggest they can't and are in fact making it worse its going to pop again and again until they just give up and stop pumping money into a flooded system. MOst people that can or willing to take on debt can't anymore, the rest dont want too, so the system has no safty value .

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Guest sillybear2

The problem is a 30% haircut will bankrupt the financial sector for a second time, and they will be bailed out of course, and that burden will fall upon the national debt and younger tax payers, basically there is no way you can win under such a rigged system. Near hyper-inflation is always an option, but that has many downsides, like a currency collapse and sky high gilt rates.

Basically too much is owned to so many and someone has to pay.

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Quote It is also vital to remember that over the last 15 years the wages of the average FTB have risen to about 40% higher than the average earner - something like over £35k compared to £25k. 15 years ago they were almost exactly equal.

Because the vast majority of FTBs back then couldnt afford to be now. Hence why FTBs are at a record low.

The only true comparison is everyones median wages vs. house prices.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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