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B O E: Mortgage Approvals Remain Flat In May

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May mortgage approvals flat
Reuters
9:33, Tuesday 29 June 2010
The Bank of England said mortgage approvals numbered 49,815 in May, down fractionally from 49,828 in April and well below the 51,000 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast.
The mortgage approvals figures point to muted housing market activity, as they are well below levels of late last year, never mind those during the housing boom of the last decade.

Looks like we are back on track folks. :D

edit:

The best bit:

The Bank preferred gauge of money supply, M4 excluding intermediate other financial corporations rose by 9.2 percent in May on a three-month annualised basis, its fastest rise since late 2007.

However, the annual rate of growth of the headline M4 measure rose by just 2.8 percent in May, the weakest since April 1993.

Edited by Realistbear

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May mortgage approvals flat
Reuters
9:33, Tuesday 29 June 2010
The Bank of England said mortgage approvals numbered 49,815 in May, down fractionally from 49,828 in April and well below the 51,000 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast.
The mortgage approvals figures point to muted housing market activity, as they are well below levels of late last year, never mind those during the housing boom of the last decade.

Looks like we are back on track folks. :D

edit:

The best bit:

The Bank preferred gauge of money supply, M4 excluding intermediate other financial corporations rose by 9.2 percent in May on a three-month annualised basis, its fastest rise since late 2007.

However, the annual rate of growth of the headline M4 measure rose by just 2.8 percent in May, the weakest since April 1993.

Who needs Reuters when you've HPC.co.uk, instant statistical releases and analysis!

It's kicking off now. I can't see how nationwide can be positive tomorrow...

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May mortgage approvals flat
Reuters
9:33, Tuesday 29 June 2010
The Bank of England said mortgage approvals numbered 49,815 in May, down fractionally from 49,828 in April and well below the 51,000 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast.
The mortgage approvals figures point to muted housing market activity, as they are well below levels of late last year, never mind those during the housing boom of the last decade.

Looks like we are back on track folks. :D

edit:

The best bit:

The Bank preferred gauge of money supply, M4 excluding intermediate other financial corporations rose by 9.2 percent in May on a three-month annualised basis, its fastest rise since late 2007.

However, the annual rate of growth of the headline M4 measure rose by just 2.8 percent in May, the weakest since April 1993.

Considering that you're a deflationist I don't understand why you consider M4 rising strongly over the last three months to be 'the best bit'!? Doesn't that point to inflation in the pipeline? That compared with a year ago money supply has only risen 2.8 percent would suggest to me that M4 contracted at some point during the last year and is now bouncing back.

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I love the way they fish around in the figs trying to find something, ANYTHING possative.........USSR style (Tractor production up).

Mike

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Considering that you're a deflationist I don't understand why you consider M4 rising strongly over the last three months to be 'the best bit'!? Doesn't that point to inflation in the pipeline? That compared with a year ago money supply has only risen 2.8 percent would suggest to me that M4 contracted at some point during the last year and is now bouncing back.

It points to inflation using BoE preferred measure, i.e. more likely they may hike etc

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Considering that you're a deflationist I don't understand why you consider M4 rising strongly over the last three months to be 'the best bit'!? Doesn't that point to inflation in the pipeline? That compared with a year ago money supply has only risen 2.8 percent would suggest to me that M4 contracted at some point during the last year and is now bouncing back.

However, the annual rate of growth of the headline M4 measure rose by just 2.8 percent in May, the weakest since April 1993.

Medium to LT deflation. Todays M4 shows how desperate the government are to try to slow down a breaking HPC. It isn't working as mortgage data shows. People are unwilling to borrow big on houses as the VI hype is being weighed against a backdrop of grim news.

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Quite amazing that less than 10 years ago the average mortgage was just £45K and now it is £145K.

And what, exactly is sustaining such high levels of debt?

The Grande Delusion of infinite borrowing power against never ending HPI.

As soon as government subsidies (bank bail outs, dangerously low IR, bank restraint on foreclosures) are removed its free-fall for debt-backed property.

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Figures still above the neutral level of approvals for 0% HPI, expecting small positive increases in the indexes over the next 6/12. (I'm sure Spline will be along later to confirm this)

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Figures still above the neutral level of approvals for 0% HPI, expecting small positive increases in the indexes over the next 6/12. (I'm sure Spline will be along later to confirm this)

How do you know what the neutral level is? Do you factor in increasing supply? And dropping level of cash buyers?

Halifax has been negative for 3 months.

Edited by Pent Up

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That's exactly what I said last month. FTB homes are not moving.

Yes indeed. I have often quoted a VI source in California who explained apparent blips upward in a bad market as fewer, more expensive, homes changing hands. The FTBs are virtually gone making chain sales very precarious. I am seeing a lot of houses around my area coming back on after having been, as EAs like to say, "sold."

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I can only talk from my own experience (Mortgage broker) and I was defiantly busier this time last year, Less products were availble at this time as well. That being said We had an election and we seem to be back into the uncertain lets wait and see stage. Im still busy enough and the majority of my work is purchases. Im begining to think as best as possible circumstances are happening to stagnate the market. BOE vote, capital gains increase. All designed to have an effect on the mentality of people but in reality keeping rates low to ensure little or no adjustment over the short to medium term. All i know for sure is uncertainty stops people moving, and we are in for another period of great uncertainty.....

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So it doesn't take into account the supply side? As we all know over 2009 supply was very low. Even lower than the low level of demand. So prices Rose. However over the last 4 or 5 months supply has been rapidly increasing in most areas of the UK, as seen by most HPCers local areas and confirmed by the housing surveys other the last month or two. So a slightly higher level of mortgage approvals is combined with a massively higher number of properties for sale. Hence the house price indicies being flat up to now.

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I have given in to pressure from Mrs Donkey and she is now actively viewing properties with the view to putting in extremely cheeky offers. Basically I have met her half way in that we will purchase as long as we can find a distressed seller who needs to sell quick which we think we may have.

What did interest me was a conversation she had with an estate agent yesterday who is actually a friend of the family but a complete tosser who has the monopoly on houses round our way. He always talks the talk and bigs up the market with his ****** speak and is in general a horrible person.

He did let slip yesterday 2 things that interested me. First he said that he is busier than ever with 20 new properties per week coming on which for a small town like ours is a lot. He then went on to say which completely stunned my wife that she may be better off waiting as he fully expects prices on the new build estate we are looking at to drop by the end of the year as they are still asking silly prices.

I found it interesting anyway and he may have done me a favour as he has made my wife doubt whether buying now is a good thing. We have been renting for 2 years and she is desperate to lay down some roots.

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I have given in to pressure from Mrs Donkey and she is now actively viewing properties with the view to putting in extremely cheeky offers. Basically I have met her half way in that we will purchase as long as we can find a distressed seller who needs to sell quick which we think we may have.

What did interest me was a conversation she had with an estate agent yesterday who is actually a friend of the family but a complete tosser who has the monopoly on houses round our way. He always talks the talk and bigs up the market with his ****** speak and is in general a horrible person.

He did let slip yesterday 2 things that interested me. First he said that he is busier than ever with 20 new properties per week coming on which for a small town like ours is a lot. He then went on to say which completely stunned my wife that she may be better off waiting as he fully expects prices on the new build estate we are looking at to drop by the end of the year as they are still asking silly prices.

I found it interesting anyway and he may have done me a favour as he has made my wife doubt whether buying now is a good thing. We have been renting for 2 years and she is desperate to lay down some roots.

I expect agents are very busy with new listing and chasing up potential buyers at the moment. I had a viewing with a local agent a few weeks ago (just for fun and a snoop, no intent in it) and I have now been phoned by this agent three times in as many days by them telling me about new stock I might be interested in. I keep telling then just email me but they feel the need to call me also? It's getting annoying now!

They obviously would not need to do this in a strong Market.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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