Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Pent Up

Land Registry Hpi May 2010 -0.2%

Recommended Posts

PDF here

Annual house price change in England and Wales has remained positive for seven months in a row, but May house prices are down 0.2 per cent since April. It is the first time since March 2009 that the annual change figure has not increased from the month before.

All regions experienced increases in their average property values over the last 12 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PDF here

Annual house price change in England and Wales has remained positive for seven months in a row, but May house prices are down 0.2 per cent since April. It is the first time since March 2009 that the annual change figure has not increased from the month before.

All regions experienced increases in their average property values over the last 12 months.

surprising that its negative because of the time lag and the other indexes positive a few months ago???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A move in the right direction, but I'm not getting carried away yet. It''s hardly a crash....apart from in the East Midlands which is completely ****ed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A move in the right direction, but I'm not getting carried away yet. It''s hardly a crash....apart from in the East Midlands which is completely ****ed.

Yes, I noticed the East Midlands number.

I wonder how it might be reported in The Derbyshire Telegraph or similar?

EAST MIDS HOUSE PRICES TO SOAR?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I noticed the East Midlands number.

I wonder how it might be reported in The Derbyshire Telegraph or similar?

EAST MIDS HOUSE PRICES TO SOAR?

Northants ( East Midlands ) down 0.6%...first negative figure for 11 months. The dead cat has bounced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the figures for Wales, overall it shows an increase of +2.8%.

However, from what I can see, it seems to be generally the more expensive areas that have shown the greatest price increases, whilst the poorer areas with the cheaper properties, have shown the greatest drops.

The range of differences between the areas are large.. eg

Cardiff +7%

Swansea +2.4%

Vale of Glamorgan +8.7%

Bridgend -5.4%

Merthyr Tydfil -4%

Carmarthenshire -10.3%

Blaenau Gwent -5.4%

I wonder if this is what has been going on the rest of the UK?

Surely if the hpc is well under way in the cheaper less desirable areas, it won't be long until it catches up to the more expensive areas, as the price gap between the two types of areas become too large to sustain?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I noticed the East Midlands number.

I wonder how it might be reported in The Derbyshire Telegraph or similar?

EAST MIDS HOUSE PRICES TO SOAR?

Simples. It wont be reported.

Conversely, if it was Nationwide released tomorrow, showing +0.2% it would be STOP PRESS front page headline material.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the figures for Wales, overall it shows an increase of +2.8%.

However, from what I can see, it seems to be generally the more expensive areas that have shown the greatest price increases, whilst the poorer areas with the cheaper properties, have shown the greatest drops.

The range of differences between the areas are large.. eg

Cardiff +7%

Swansea +2.4%

Vale of Glamorgan +8.7%

Bridgend -5.4%

Merthyr Tydfil -4%

Carmarthenshire -10.3%

Blaenau Gwent -5.4%

I wonder if this is what has been going on the rest of the UK?

Surely if the hpc is well under way in the cheaper less desirable areas, it won't be long until it catches up to the more expensive areas, as the price gap between the two types of areas become too large to sustain?

yeah, i dunno, although there's clearly some truth in the old HPI apologists' favourite line [invariably used as a precursor to stating that his or her pwoperdee have bucked any national trend to the upside] ...there is no such thing as 'a' housing market but rather a series of local markets, it's very often taken too far given the absolutely crucial role played by country-wide factors like interest rates, housing benefits, lending conditions, and so on.

my take is probably that all of these numbers are only very approximate & that the smaller an area you drill down to the more likely numbers are to be unreliable due to small sample size. you see huge differences in data for ostensibly similar areas all the time, often not in any consistent or plausible way, e.g. area A massively outperforms area B in Q1 but then area B bounces back spectacularly in Q2, and then...

Edited by the flying pig

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I noticed the East Midlands number.

I wonder how it might be reported in The Derbyshire Telegraph or similar?

EAST MIDS HOUSE PRICES TO SOAR?

City of Derby is up 0.3%. I currently live in Derby and that is off a very low sales base. I would love to see a MOM drop in prices by 3.2% in Derby!!!!! Bring it on!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

P.S. I northampton area, sales values are almost 1/3 of the peak 2007 sales volumes and almost half that of 2008. They are up a bit on 2009 though.

Small sales volumes, people with money buying and paying over the odds.

There's only so many people stupid or able enough to buy and I think they've spent their load.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the figures for Wales, overall it shows an increase of +2.8%.

However, from what I can see, it seems to be generally the more expensive areas that have shown the greatest price increases, whilst the poorer areas with the cheaper properties, have shown the greatest drops.

The range of differences between the areas are large.. eg

Cardiff +7%

Swansea +2.4%

Vale of Glamorgan +8.7%

Bridgend -5.4%

Merthyr Tydfil -4%

Carmarthenshire -10.3%

Blaenau Gwent -5.4%

I wonder if this is what has been going on the rest of the UK?

Surely if the hpc is well under way in the cheaper less desirable areas, it won't be long until it catches up to the more expensive areas, as the price gap between the two types of areas become too large to sustain?

I had a similar reasoning a few weeks ago. Interest rates are at record low, BUT the deposits required are at record high. So, middle class areas are OK, as they can put the deposits down, with either cash or equity. The poor and FTBers can't.

BUT even cheap areas were doing OK in this past year. Then I realised that in these areas BTLers may have been investing?

But now, with Housing Benefits "LHA" pointing down in the next 3 years, BTLers should stop buying there, and even start to sell.

Let's see what happens in the next few months.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

P.S. I northampton area, sales values are almost 1/3 of the peak 2007 sales volumes and almost half that of 2008. They are up a bit on 2009 though.

Small sales volumes, people with money buying and paying over the odds.

There's only so many people stupid or able enough to buy and I think they've spent their load.

I thought so too, until recently. But then I started to find some data, and then "FreeTrader" posted this official ONS table:

Total Financial Assets of British Households: 3.7 trillion pounds.

That is almost 4 times the national (government) debt. :ph34r:

Please note that the "NET" financial assets here is not relevant, as the creditors (rich investors) and the debtors (the Sheeple with credit card debts and mortgages) are not the same households.

BlueBook09Households.gif

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

P.S. I northampton area, sales values are almost 1/3 of the peak 2007 sales volumes and almost half that of 2008. They are up a bit on 2009 though.

Small sales volumes, people with money buying and paying over the odds.

There's only so many people stupid or able enough to buy and I think they've spent their load.

Potentially not, if the machine keeps ticking away then you'll continue to see low sales, for everyone that sells, someone has to buy and the cycle continues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Potentially not, if the machine keeps ticking away then you'll continue to see low sales, for everyone that sells, someone has to buy and the cycle continues.

The machine has been stopped.

The agents ( as they were) cant survive on the low sales volumes.

Any half witted agent must be doing their best to drive down prices/expectations. It's taken them a long time to realise a return to normality isnt going to happen. Desperate agents = accelerating price falls.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Potentially not, if the machine keeps ticking away then you'll continue to see low sales, for everyone that sells, someone has to buy and the cycle continues.

Low sales are fine as long as you have low demand combined with lower supply prices will rise. But we are all now seeing supply surging which is being confirmed by all the major housing reports; rightmove, RICS, hometrack today, Halifax and nationwide.

It's game over...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Low sales are fine as long as you have low demand combined with lower supply prices will rise. But we are all now seeing supply surging which is being confirmed by all the major housing reports; rightmove, RICS, hometrack today, Halifax and nationwide.

It's game over...

We are seeing a surging supply I agree, but oversupply does not always equate to the lowering of prices.

It would be great if you could find out why people are selling. My guess, is that a lot of people have seen the recent rise in the market and want to either take the gain that they have got, or they want to upgrade to another property before prices go up even further. So there could be some forced sellers in there, or just people looking to move.

But for those looking to move, I doubt whether they'll lower their price just to move, people for the most part are too proud or stupid to sell for less.

So without knowing why people are selling, it is hard to say what the over supply will do

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://news.bbc.co.u...html/houses.stm

UK house prices: Jan-Mar 2010

UK House Prices

All figures% change map

Average house price

£224,064

Detached £344,989

Semi-detached £196,506

Terrace £177,633

Flat £199,669

Annual change in house price

-2.8%

Quarterly change

+2.2%

Total number of sales: 138,487

Is the BBC LR data more realistic are there two separate sets of data that pass like ships in the night?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.