Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
littlepuppi

Things Must Be Bad....

Recommended Posts

£1.3tr pension black hole.

Population: 62m

That's a debt of £21k for every living human in the UK

Assuming only half of those will be in work and paying tax, your looking at a £42,000 debt per person, which needs to be repayed over the next 25 years. Also it's index linked, so unlike a mortgage, it wont be inflated away.

It's like being handed a £42,000 mortgage by your parents, but not being given any assets to go with it.

Edited by TaxAbuserOfTheWeek

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.....

Assuming only half of those will be in work and paying tax,....

Jeez - if that many people worked and paid tax there would be no bother.

A third of them are retired and sponging off the state having "paid in all their life". A third are either too young or not able to work. Of the remaining third about 20% are unemployed or working poor (ie living off benefits and working at the same time).

A fifth would have been a better estimate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

£1.3tr pension black hole.

Let's not over-dramatise this. The hole is only about 600 billion, the rest is the cost we already expect. Even at the revised annual cost of 30 billion it is basically affordable at something like 2k per family in the UK. I don't see any problem here that could detrimentally affect house prices at all.

Only a hardened cynic might point out that £3e10 nearly pays the interest on the shortfall of £6e11, never mind on the total cost of £1.3e12.

Or that 2k per family is probably closer to 5k per family that pays any tax at all.

Or that the money will need to be found in addition to >£1e11 in other annual savings.

Or that if the private sector cannot afford to provide final-salary pensions, the chances are that they also cannot pay enough tax in order that the other half of the economy can.

Or that people without publicly funded pensions have been making insufficient provisions for retirement, and will consequently need benefits.

Or that more cuts will be needed if the anticipated growth somehow fails to materialise this parliament.

Or that a reasonable estimate for how long the crisis will actually last might be "about as long as in Japan", i.e another 20 years or so after theirs eventually ends..

Or that the public sector is getting cut by some 25% over the next few years, so there might be a slight cumulative pain.

Or that the alternative to cutting most public spending to the bone is to turn the place into a Greece that is not attractive to tourists, and then cut most public spending to the bone.

Or that the scale of the pension promises made by the state makes some sort of a default inevitable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Let's not over-dramatise this. The hole is only about 600 billion, the rest is the cost we already expect.

technically it's an EXTRA £600bn black hole on top of the £700bn black hole we already knew about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so the solution is obviously a rather virulent strain of hospital infection or winter flu.

that'll weed out the infirm and cut the pension deficit.

..not to mention fill the treasuries coffers with inheritance/cgt receipts.

(sieg heil)

should have put harold shipman in charge of either health,or department for work and pensions.....he'd do a damn fine job!

Edited by oracle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 193 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.