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Analysis

Massive Oversupply Of Houses On The Market

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The number of houses available on Rightmove has increased by a massive 71% since January 2010 (see chart) - meaning supply has exceeded demand by this amount. Typical new houses on the market each day include 30-40% with price reductions. House prices have fallen for 3 consecutive months according to Academetrics, 2 months according to Halifax, and that in the traditionally strong Spring period (strangely not according to Nationwide though). Wait until the number of buyers gets even lower over the Summer.

The press has to cotton on sooner or later, surely.

chart.jpg

post-23968-12776711597938_thumb.jpg

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Hi analysis. Have you noticed any changes in the few weeks running up to the budget? I found that the rate of increase of stock slowed in the last few weeks before picking up again last week. I'll post an my latest chart in the next few days.

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Hi analysis. Have you noticed any changes in the few weeks running up to the budget? I found that the rate of increase of stock slowed in the last few weeks before picking up again last week. I'll post an my latest chart in the next few days.

The market is fine. It's just had a bad month because of peculiarly hot weather and England on TV.

;)

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Hi analysis. Have you noticed any changes in the few weeks running up to the budget? I found that the rate of increase of stock slowed in the last few weeks before picking up again last week. I'll post an my latest chart in the next few days.

Well spotted - you can see on my chart that it actually goes down leading up to the budget then climbs steeply after the budget. Great news; let's hope this trend continues.

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The market is fine. It's just had a bad month because of peculiarly hot weather and England on TV.

;)

Yes, there were leaves on the line and the mortgage paperwork took a long time now that you can't tell so many porkers, so the last qtr is not representative. But it will all return to normal by September because there are negative equity loans coming on tap now. Also HIPS went and ....oh alright, so did all confidence.......and there are so many worried sellers it's really a good thing because houses will return to the long term trend and below in a long slump which has already begun......

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Well spotted - you can see on my chart that it actually goes down leading up to the budget then climbs steeply after the budget. Great news; let's hope this trend continues.

Yeah just been looking at it properly. So the budget did actually effect sellers. Heres mine:

propertyonmarket270610.jpg

The raw data would produced a similar pattern to yours a dip before jumping back up, I use an average weekly figure so it smooths out the dip and jump. But we are now back all time highs. Week 16 was last week to Saturday.

Its going to go 1000+ very soon by the looks of it so I started a parallel search using a smaller price range also.

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The landlord

Steve Perrons, 41, a buy-to-let investor who owns 220 properties in the Midlands and Yorkshire

A rise in capital gains tax to between 40 and 50 per cent is another way of hitting savers. It will put off short-term buy-to-let investors and discourage enterprise. If you take buy-to-let investors out of the equation, who will supply housing? I would like to see more institutional investors in the market — buy-to-let investors can’t bridge the gap on their own.

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/article7147505.ece 12th June 2010

Looks like a bad budget for Landlords who provide a valuable service! Who's going to provide the housing??!!

The graphs above clearly show; the market will, thank you very much, Sir.

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The landlord

Steve Perrons, 41, a buy-to-let investor who owns 220 properties in the Midlands and Yorkshire

A rise in capital gains tax to between 40 and 50 per cent is another way of hitting savers. It will put off short-term buy-to-let investors and discourage enterprise. If you take buy-to-let investors out of the equation, who will supply housing? I would like to see more institutional investors in the market — buy-to-let investors can’t bridge the gap on their own.

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/article7147505.ece 12th June 2010

Looks like a bad budget for Landlords who provide a valuable service! Who's going to provide the housing??!!

The graphs above clearly show; the market will, thank you very much, Sir.

The BTL investors are supplying the housing. By selling up their portfolios!

Edited by Pent Up

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I don't have a graph, but I can tell you the number of 1 bed and 2 bed flats in BH1, the BTL capital of the south, has exploded. I sense the start of a gentle stampede.

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220

He has 220...........................or rather we do via the banking sytem

Your got to pray we are right & there is no "soft landing".................once things Crash & burn BTL will be a dirty word.

Mike

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The landlord

Steve Perrons, 41, a buy-to-let investor who owns 220 properties in the Midlands and Yorkshire

A rise in capital gains tax to between 40 and 50 per cent is another way of hitting savers. It will put off short-term buy-to-let investors and discourage enterprise. If you take buy-to-let investors out of the equation, who will supply housing? I would like to see more institutional investors in the market — buy-to-let investors can't bridge the gap on their own.

http://property.time...icle7147505.ece 12th June 2010

Looks like a bad budget for Landlords who provide a valuable service! Who's going to provide the housing??!!

The graphs above clearly show; the market will, thank you very much, Sir.

Steve my friend, I`m afraid you win Teat of the year award,you really are a grade A plonker. I am so gratified this crash is starting,so happy tonight.

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I've just done a quick Rightmove analysis myself.

Breaking it done by estate agent for the city of Derby. I looked at how many properties each EA had up, and how many were down as SSTC. Nothing scientific but it averaged at 19% of the EA's posted properties were down as SSTC.1/5th of their property portfolio is shifting. The rest is sitting there!. The majority of what is moving seems to be the lower end BTL terraced stuff too....

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don't get too excited - many people will have postponed their decisions until the budget was over. You should check the trend in 3 months to see what direction we're heading in.

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I've just done a quick Rightmove analysis myself.

Breaking it done by estate agent for the city of Derby. I looked at how many properties each EA had up, and how many were down as SSTC. Nothing scientific but it averaged at 19% of the EA's posted properties were down as SSTC.1/5th of their property portfolio is shifting. The rest is sitting there!. The majority of what is moving seems to be the lower end BTL terraced stuff too....

...so most of their "fartfolio" needs to drop it`s price big time? Oh my, I think I can smell the crashy time.

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bpw.....

I really cannot see anyhting in the recent budget that would cause those who were "waiting to see" to suddenly think PHEWW the worst is over! time to buy a house!

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Until we get rates UP we are wasting our time, & "Merv" is NOT going to grant us unless the £ crashes & it is not......

Mike

Edited by Mega

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bpw.....

I really cannot see anyhting in the recent budget that would cause those who were "waiting to see" to suddenly think PHEWW the worst is over! time to buy a house!

No, neither can I, there is maybe a lot to make them wish they could sell a house?

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The first stage of the HPC is going to be a significant drop in asking prices on the properties currently up for sale. Those who cannot drop their price wil probably just take it off the market...

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Until we get rates UP we are wasting our time, & "Merv" is NOT going to grant us unless the £ crashes & it is not......

Mike

You need credit UP to save the market, but there are always people who NEED to sell for whatever reason. No credit and need to sell = crash time IMO.

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The first stage of the HPC is going to be a significant drop in asking prices on the properties currently up for sale. Those who cannot drop their price wil probably just take it off the market...

More likely they'll just sit there as they have done the last 2 years, waiting for "the right buyer"

I suppose that in the end the EAs will have sufficient business from the real sellers to be able to sack the delusional ones. It's already happening a little - even the dimmest EA can see that 3 years on the market and a complete refusal to lower asking price is not going to net them a commission very soon. And they're paying the advertising.

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No, neither can I, there is maybe a lot to make them wish they could sell a house?

Agreed. Many people have been waiting for 3 years now to sell, hence the Independent's '3 times as many new sellers as buyers'. This must play through to house prices. I am personally amazed that it has not taken off in a bigger way until now.

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Agreed. Many people have been waiting for 3 years now to sell, hence the Independent's '3 times as many new sellers as buyers'. This must play through to house prices. I am personally amazed that it has not taken off in a bigger way until now.

I too am amazed how long the oversupply is taking to feed through into prices. But it is happening.

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Agreed. Many people have been waiting for 3 years now to sell, hence the Independent's '3 times as many new sellers as buyers'. This must play through to house prices. I am personally amazed that it has not taken off in a bigger way until now.

So am I, but I suppose the delusion runs deep, there has been massive intervention, and meaningful cuts have not happened yet? (although many have lost jobs)

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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