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Confounded

What Is Happening Where You Live?

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I apologise for not doing a comprehensive breakdown of the UK but the poll is too limited in the number of questions allowed. I am interested in a current snapshot of what people are seeing.

Anecdotals are welcome as well :-)

The story so far where I live (in a popular area of the SW both with second home owners and lifestyle re-locators) is 07-08 stagnation with the view property prices in the area would not be effected because it is a desirable place to live. End 08-09 there was a realisation that it would be effected like everywhere else and prices started to fall.

Fortunately the VI indices started to rise just at the point where people started to accept the projections of falls of 20-30% ( ;) ). Although even after over a year of the BBC and VI's running their propaganda prices have only gone back to stagnation/slows sales and gradual price reductions.

Edited by Confounded

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Hi Confounded

It wont let me vote just on the South - it's telling me I have to vote on each question, which will skew the poll as I'd be guessing about the other areas...

B

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Stagnant in the North (that's cos we don't wash up here ;) )

Actually stagnant now, after some falls from peak.

Flats definitely down in many cases. Houses seen/seeing some falls but often you see the same old prices week after week.

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Hi Confounded

It wont let me vote just on the South - it's telling me I have to vote on each question, which will skew the poll as I'd be guessing about the other areas...

B

I found that as well so have just modified the poll :-)

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In Birmingham and surrounding places such as Bromsgrove, Worcester, Lichfield, etc. all the postcodes I monitor have seen supply to the market increase by 50%-100% since the end of 2009 with few sales and increasing numbers of price reductions - some making large reductions. Seeing some properties that failed to sell in 2007/08 coming back on the market, some with the same price as before, some with a slightly lower asking price and some with a higher asking price than they had in 2007 and couldn't sell! In Worcester this seems to be happening particularly in postcode WR4 where very few sales are happening - the Estate Agents really are stupid.

In terms of transactions Estate Agents very commonly claim that the 1st Quarter of 2009 was the bottom and a recovery has been in progress ever since. In Worcester however the Land Registry data for completed property sales reveals that the number of properties sold in the 1st Quarter of each year has been:

2006 - 560

2007 - 517

2008 - 297

2009 - 200

2010 - 205

So the 1st Quarter of 2010 pretty much revisited the low achieved in the 1st Quarter of 2009. I suspect the 2nd Quarter of 2010 may well match the 2nd Quarter of 2009 or perhaps be even lower as it really did become extremely quiet in the market up here.

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I see diverging trends. Here (rural West Devon) prices have been pretty-much static since 2005. Down the road in our local big city (Plymouth - which is quite a lot cheaper), they rose to 2007 and have been falling ever since.

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Hello everyone.

I am a frequent HPC reader & I have been watching house prices on the North Wales coast for the past 5 yrs.

I am interested in well-presented 4-5 bedroom houses with a garden, not too far out from town. Prices in this category are £300k-£700k plus. (While average nice 3-bed semis are about £160k.) I would say prices here have dropped 10-20% on average since 2007.

Some properties are still selling, tho I think the very low end (eg flats/terraces in not so good areas, often repossessions?) have dropped more, (possibly ending up at auction?), while the higher end and/or over-priced properties can get stuck on the market for several yrs at a time. (Sometimes while empty.)

Examples of price reductions on higher end properties which have been on market for 2yrs plus :

1. This one has been on market for 3+yrs ... empty the whole time. Looks like a developer went in and thought they could sell quickly in 2007 for £575k. Now price has dropped to £475k. (£100k reduction, still not sold.) Still not worth the money though I feel.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-10654014.html

2. This one was on at £550k (I think), then reduced to £525k, then to £475k, then to "offers around £475k", now on at £450k. A nice big house but needs a lot of work doing. (£100k reduction, still not sold .)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-16311507.html

3. These news ones, (set of 4 on one plot, 2 of each style, built about 2-3 yrs ago), are still ALL for sale, prices down about £50k each so far, but still not shifting. They have tried many diffferent agencies and adverts lines like "last few remaining"," & "new to market" , which are a bit silly/sounding desperate a this stage? They are quite nice but very expensive and there are shared annual costs for the electric gates/access road & sewage pumps/rubbish bins or whatever.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/new-homes/property-29869526.html?showcase=true

Lots more examples in the area which I could quote, of fairly decent price reductions on houses which are not selling, but, in summary, I think that the cheaper but decent smaller properties are keeping their value quite well & selling, while no-one wants the grotty flats in bad areas, and the pricier/up-market houses seem harder to sell, unless the vendor gets the price exactly right and/or is lucky.

I can't see house prices going up round here in next few yrs with current economic climate, though it is v nice to live by the sea. They might stay static, but I am hoping prices will come down by up to another 20% before I decide to buy.

Cheers for all your contributions which I enjoy reading.

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Hello everyone.

I am a frequent HPC reader & I have been watching house prices on the North Wales coast for the past 5 yrs.

I am interested in well-presented 4-5 bedroom houses with a garden, not too far out from town.

Welcome out of lurkerdom!

Just out of interest, what counts as "town" on the North Wales coast? Just somewhere big enough to have a shopping street, a market, some kind of year-round entertainment venue?

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Where I'm looking (south Oxfordshire), there does't seem to be too much movement either way in actual asking prices.

When the CGT changes were announced I noticed a massive increase in the number of 1 bed flat, 2 bed flat and townhouses on the market.

Decent sized family homes (3-4 bed semis/detached) still seem to have a reasonable turnover, but the market for flats and townhouses seems to be dead. I believe the speculative CGT sellers are now crowding out the market for the people that really have to sell and this is going to cause some downwards price pressure. I can see quite a few properties where the sellers IMO appear to be desperate (ie changing agents, listing as "enhanced or premier property" and constant small downward increases in asking price). There are a lot of places wich have been on the market for a year or more.

At the moment I still believe that the asking prices on the flats are overpriced in this area by at least 10%. Certainly in this area of the world new build flats have not seen the kind of decreases observed in big city centre appartments. I think the move downhill on the prices is going to be slow. My gut feeling is that the owners of the appartments/townhouses still believe that we are in 2007 and that several months of continuous Haliwide price drops are necessary in order to convince people that maybe things ain't so rosy.

Talking to agents gives me the impression that they now have significant more volume than before. My instinct is now that they will negotiate harder to close price gaps between sellers and buyers as they have the opportunity to make up turnover through volume rather than asking price.

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South Staffordshire here :D and we've got a good selection of everything, but they all have one thing in common ... nothings selling.

Prices seem to start off over priced, then get a few reductions and then stagnate .... nothing going up in price.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-13819215.html - wish I could win the lottery ... I love this house

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-15308154.html - over priced, been on ages, 3 different agents

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26443033.html - On and off the market, tried renting and selling, different agents, they paid £160k in 2003, maybe they should consider droping the price.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-23869003.html?premiumA=true - I think this is a repo, cant even sell a 4 bed house in a quiet location for £120k round here :D

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Voted stagnant for SE, if that's where Norfolk fits in.

Here's what I've been seeing locally:

Strong HPI from 1998-2004, faltered in 2005, then resumed 2006 through to summer 2007, then falling over 2008, full on crash over winter 2008-09 taking 20%+ off peak prices, recovery in Spring 2009 as HIPS choked off supply, seen a 10% recovery from March 2009 lows, that's pretty much been sustained until now, Autumn 2009 was busier, winter was flat during awful weather, some forced sales weakened sentiment, as the thaw came there was a flurry of activity, but since then the uncertainty about election result and budget has dampened the usual Spring Bounce, but annoyingly the Agents have tried to price it in, with many new instructions asking at or very close to the notional 2007 selling price. In reality the only things that sell are the most keenly priced or a vendor gets lucky with someone from a more expensive area who thinks they are getting a 'bargain', these tend to be the more 'unique' properties rather than the bread and butter.

I reckon an acheivable price here would be similar to summer 2009 and around 10-15% off peak hence the vote for a stagnant market. Anecdotally though I've seen a retiree who bought a little too enthusiastically last Autumn and had a change of plans and has had to take a drop of around 7% to sell this Spring.

A peculiarity of this small market town is it's popularity with retirees from closer to London, these have put a bit of a floor under some of the price drops as they always have the means to out bid local buyers. This now means that property looks better value in the county town Norwich which is more dependent on local employment prospects, Norwich was historically always more expensive.

As to where things are going now I'm not too sure, maybe a relief rally that the Budget wasn't as bad for most people as the expectation of it. Or as the cuts kick in and start to really bite, confidence takes another tumble, I am hoping for the latter. There's certainly more supply, just need demand to continue to weaken to tip it over.

Edited by luigi

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From my "Anecdotal" thread:

"At the end of every week I do the same search on Rightmove and note price changes. Today I looked at the position end of April, end of May and end of June. Results as follows:

Date * No of Houses for Sale (ex STC) * No of Price Reductions * No of Price Increases

28/04/10 * 653 * 38 * 4

26/05/10 * 905 * 62 * 5

25/06/10 * 984 * 89 * 6

Effectively 5% of the houses for sale in April were reduced and 10% in June.

(I do look at figures including STC as well but I thought that this was enough for now. Search criteria - + 10 Miles, 3 beds, £140k - £250k)"

The STC/nonSTC summaries suggest that weekly sales figures for this category for properties advertised on Rightmove have varied between 4 and 8 with no pattern emerging. However, this area spans low end of the market areas and high - and i believe that these are two very contrasting pictures.

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It's a bit difficult to know how to vote. Where I work in the midlands, the prices appears to be falling generally, but where I live the prices seem to be rising and yes, people are buying!

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I found that as well so have just modified the poll :-)

Thanks. Just voted...

Drifting down gently in Farnham. Stuff still coming on at ridiculous prices through Strutting Plonker and Andrew Splodge, who are (according to contacts at other EAs,) massively overvaluing everything, and charging bargain basement commission respectively.

Some things selling, but mostly going SSTC and then coming back on a few weeks later. Some sellers clearly getting the message though, and starting the drops.

To many b*****ers and top five accountant / consultancy types around here for really big drops yet - but who knows what will happen, when the Public Sector gravy train hits the buffers?

Bring it on!

B

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What is a price if it is not achievable......the agents tell you one thing the buyers another.

Good locations I would say are just about holding their price....good locations are in hot spots all over the country...less can turn out to be more. ;)

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Welcome out of lurkerdom!

Just out of interest, what counts as "town" on the North Wales coast? Just somewhere big enough to have a shopping street, a market, some kind of year-round entertainment venue?

Colwyn Bay and Llandudno are the best coastal towns IMO ... got all the necessary shops/supermarkets, each have a railway station with links to London, plus freq local buses, both have nice promenades, some culture, easy access to airports (Manchester and Liverpool both less than 1.5 hr drive), also there's the car ferry to Ireland from Holyhead if u like that idea ...takes less than 2 hrs I think? Further west is also nice, but it can start to feel a bit too remote for my liking.

I just like being near the sea, but I also want to be near to good transport communications (eg motorway/rail/buses). Going inland, or west, the trains are usually rubbish & u can get flooding in the valleys and snow probs in winter on hills. Going east u lose the beautiful backdrop of Snowdonia.

It's where I grew up tho, so maybe I am just being sentimentally attached?

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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