Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Realistbear

"house Prices Will Withstand Tough Budget Cuts And Tax Rises"

Recommended Posts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/7855193/House-prices-will-withstand-tough-budget-cuts-and-tax-rises-says-Berkeley-Group.html

House prices will withstand tough budget cuts and tax rises, says Berkeley Group
Berkeley Group has backed George Osborne's Budget as "business friendly" and played down fears a rise in VAT and huge cuts in public spending could damage the housing market.
By Graham Ruddick, City Reporter (Construction)
Published: 7:12PM BST 25 Jun 2010
Tony Pidgley, a self-made Pikey, founder of the housebuilder and regeneration group, said the housing market had "stabilised" in London and the South East, despite a change in Government giving "cause for reflection" for consumers.
The company recorded annual revenues of £615.3m, a 12.4pc decline on the previous year, and pre-tax profits were down 8.4pc at £110.3m.

So long as HPI is safe we can all breath a collective sigh of relief. The Telegraph is certainly doing its best to reassure us with a flood of HPI-assurance farticles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/7855193/House-prices-will-withstand-tough-budget-cuts-and-tax-rises-says-Berkeley-Group.html

House prices will withstand tough budget cuts and tax rises, says Berkeley Group
Berkeley Group has backed George Osborne's Budget as "business friendly" and played down fears a rise in VAT and huge cuts in public spending could damage the housing market.
By Graham Ruddick, City Reporter (Construction)
Published: 7:12PM BST 25 Jun 2010
Tony Pidgley, a self-made Pikey, founder of the housebuilder and regeneration group, said the housing market had "stabilised" in London and the South East, despite a change in Government giving "cause for reflection" for consumers.
The company recorded annual revenues of £615.3m, a 12.4pc decline on the previous year, and pre-tax profits were down 8.4pc at £110.3m.

So long as HPI is safe we can all breath a collective sigh of relief. The Telegraph is certainly doing its best to reassure us with a flood of HPI-assurance farticles.

I tried to post this earlier, but there are problems with this sites drivers.

Take a look at table C5, Page 87, in the Budget Red Book here:-

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/junebudget_complete.pdf

Office of Budget Irresponsibility's forecasts take some believing.

I give up on this country - It's not worth it.

Edited by Hawksmoor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A regeneration group - what's that?

They a re commissioned by government to analyse areas where HPI has been absent and work out ways to stimulate the market back into action.

I have a sense that the Koalishon have secretly decided its all out war against a possible HPC. No wonder St. Vince de Cable has been looking uncomfortable. I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to pack it all in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great, the housing market is safe, the currency is pulling up, at this rate it will be 2007 all over again :unsure:

The miracle economy roars back into life - what could possibly go wrong? :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...the housing market had "stabilised" in London and the South East, despite a change in Government giving "cause for reflection" for consumers

presumably like 'reflecting' on the imminent move from being a two-income household to a one or zero- one??

Edited by the flying pig

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are Berkeley Group the outfit that builds on brownfield sites and then hands it over to Housing Associations for shared ownership schemes?

Buy a 30% share in a box on top of a toxic waste dump - minimum household income required only 40K.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to make it clear from my previous post - so that you lot know what you're up against.

The OBR forecasts by 2015-2016 are:

FTSE All Share Index to be 30% higher (approx) than it is today.

Residentia house prices to be 25% higher, nominally, than they are today (DCLG Index).

Residential property transactions to be within 10% of the peak in 2007.

My workings - but check the table.

The other forecasts are just as presumptuous. These, though, are "fiscal determinants". In other words, they're at the heart of the Coalitions agenda. Without them - BUST.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to make it clear from my previous post - so that you lot know what you're up against.

The OBR forecasts by 2015-2016 are:

FTSE All Share Index to be 30% higher (approx) than it is today.

Residentia house prices to be 25% higher, nominally, than they are today (DCLG Index).

Residential property transactions to be within 10% of the peak in 2007.

My workings - but check the table.

The other forecasts are just as presumptuous. These, though, are "fiscal determinants". In other words, they're at the heart of the Coalitions agenda. Without them - BUST.

They are just like most of the managers I have come across. Just stay positive and keep everyone's spirit up and hope for the best. Worked alright for the last 20 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I tried to post this earlier, but there are problems with this sites drivers.

Take a look at table C5, Page 87, in the Budget Red Book here:-

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/junebudget_complete.pdf

Office of Budget Irresponsibility's forecasts take some believing.

I give up on this country - It's not worth it.

It really is a case of, 'well, they would say that wouldn't they'. They have no interest in a HPC as it would hurt them. Likewise, the govt cannot publish a document suggesting by its figures that their policies could produce or fail to prevent a HPC.

We all know that behind the scenes a different reality will be part of discussions just as the sovereign debt crisis is partially covered up at every opportunity by govt. Wait 30 yrs and see the cabinet papers! (Apparently, in 1975 MI5 thought PM Wilson was recruited by the KGB and Lord Louis Mountbatten was so sure about our impending bankruptcy he had arranged for a military coup if the UK govt were to descend into chaos - you didn't know that? Well, it has all been published and paraphrased by me a bit and put into BBC documentary) Govt see their role to prevent panic and to maintain confidence.

Fact is, there is little confidence in this dead cat bounce and the stock market rally that does not stack up. The markets are not that convinced by any of it and the £ has not rallied very much. It was good deal higher a few weeks before the election under Brown. About 6 months ago I sold all mine for $1.68. It is quite likely that the trigger for the 2nd leg down will not start in the UK, but elsewhere - possibly even France when the dire state of their position on stupid lending to the Eurozombie govts is laid bare over the next few months. Also the USA is finding that the 'stimulus' has failed and they are preparing for another even bigger one. It may not get through the senate, but Obama will be trying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

to be clear, OBR's HPI forecasts aren't its own. it takes an average of what it calls "independent" external forecasts.

rumours that the forecasting panel consisted of stuey law, krusty, and a well-known state-owned bank remain unconfirmed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

....Residentia house prices to be 25% higher, nominally, than they are today (DCLG Index).

Residential property transactions to be within 10% of the peak in 2007.

That's quite alarming! I guess a lot of people on this site are hoping for the exact opposite of that (and that house prices will fall by 25%).

Isn't there anyone in govt who can say "haven't house prices gone up enough in recent years? In fact, wouldn't it be a good thing if they fell a bit?" I suppose any person making such utterances would be dragged outside by an angry mob of VI heavies and kicked to death on the street to shouts of "Die! Heretic!" :)

It will be interesting to see how house prices can climb when the banks are meant to be lending more while at the same time shoring up their balance books. And wage inflation is not looking that great over the next few years. Nor unemployment come to think of it. And inflation is still almost double the target. And we have cuts of 25-30% in some public services to come. Still, as long as house prices go up, that's the main thing.

I thought the OBR was meant to make sensible forecasts rather than the fairyland stuff that the chancellor and treasury usually come up with? ;)

QB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...said the housing market had "stabilised" in London and the South East, despite a change in Government giving "cause for reflection" for consumers.

An opportunity which obviously many did not take. :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I blame the DCLG. Their stats are all over the place. :rolleyes:

DCLG.gif

Source

Since October 2005 the new mix-adjusted house price index is based on an enlarged sample of completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS) as collected by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)/BankSearch.
In January of each year the index weights are revised to reflect the pattern of property transactions during the previous 3 years. The mix-adjusted average prices for the rest of the year are then determined using these new weights. Consequently whilst house prices within the year are comparable – they are all based on the same weights - house prices between years cannot be compared because last year’s weights and this year’s weights are different..... ......Therefore, the year-on-year change in the index is not the same as the year-on-year change in the mix-adjusted average price.
The Communities and Local Government index uses expenditure weights, whereas other indices use transaction weights. Consequently, the Communities and Local Government index is influenced by house price growth rates in the higher priced areas (which are currently in the South) where house prices - and therefore total expenditure on house buying - is highest. Similarly, regional rates of change in house prices determined by the Communities and Local Government are more influenced by the market for the higher priced properties (i.e. the demand for detached houses).

What the effing 'ell is this tripe? Why not come clean and say "We just make them up!".

At least nobody takes this shit seriously and will be using it, say in government planning for the whole country. :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont know why these reports and similar predictors simply dont use the chart on the home page of this web site as a reference document. The trend line tells you everything you need to know about what will happen to house prices in the future.

Yeh, I imagine anyone investing in shares circa 2000 were looking at the trend line too-and look how well they've done...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The choice facing the Koalishon (perhaps Vince aside) is HPI or BUST.

Looked at in isolation this country could continue pushing HPI to the point where most mortgages would be subsidised directly or indirectly by the government which would begin taking on vast amounts of public debt. I think they would do this to avoid the bust. Brown knew HPI was the only way to work the miracle that Nulabour appeared to have pulled off.

The fly in the ointment is outside forces. The global economy sends shock waves in all directions and the EU and the US are moving against increasingly strong headwinds. Yield spreads are still tearing at the viability of the EZ and the US deficit will have to be tackled through austerity programs which in turn will hit China and so forth. At the moment we are in splendid isolation as the only bubble country not to have burst. Our housing market IS the UK economy and it is clear that the Koalishon have drawn up plans to keep the bubble filled with air (credit) and hope that the demand from increasing immigration and wealth contributed by the banksters will keep it going.

The PONZI will continue a few more months yet but its built on Sand.

Just has a review of property for sale in my region (5 miles E of Brighton) and there a many empty houses for sale with drops of 10%. The illusion is starting to fade--but its a SLOW process.

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mr Perrins said Berkeley had a "strong balance sheet" and "is in a great position to react quickly to the opportunities in the market as visibility improves once the impact of the change in Government is assessed by companies and individuals".

"Visibility improves" got to love that.

So people have less money yet somehow house prices will keep on going up.... Brilliant analysis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to make it clear from my previous post - so that you lot know what you're up against.

The OBR forecasts by 2015-2016 are:

Residentia house prices to be 25% higher, nominally, than they are today (DCLG Index).

The OBR's estimates were based on the average estimates of a selection of independent experts.

It's a reasonable approach, the mistake they made was in assuming that the forecasters were independent and experts rather than clueless VIs plucking numbers out of the air.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The choice facing the Koalishon (perhaps Vince aside) is HPI or BUST.

Looked at in isolation this country could continue pushing HPI to the point where most mortgages would be subsidised directly or indirectly by the government which would begin taking on vast amounts of public debt. I think they would do this to avoid the bust. Brown knew HPI was the only way to work the miracle that Nulabour appeared to have pulled off.

The fly in the ointment is outside forces. The global economy sends shock waves in all directions and the EU and the US are moving against increasingly strong headwinds. Yield spreads are still tearing at the viability of the EZ and the US deficit will have to be tackled through austerity programs which in turn will hit China and so forth. At the moment we are in splendid isolation as the only bubble country not to have burst. Our housing market IS the UK economy and it is clear that the Koalishon have drawn up plans to keep the bubble filled with air (credit) and hope that the demand from increasing immigration and wealth contributed by the banksters will keep it going.

The PONZI will continue a few more months yet but its built on Sand.

Just has a review of property for sale in my region (5 miles E of Brighton) and there a many empty houses for sale with drops of 10%. The illusion is starting to fade--but its a SLOW process.

Your best post yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's quite alarming! I guess a lot of people on this site are hoping for the exact opposite of that (and that house prices will fall by 25%).

Isn't there anyone in govt who can say "haven't house prices gone up enough in recent years? In fact, wouldn't it be a good thing if they fell a bit?" I suppose any person making such utterances would be dragged outside by an angry mob of VI heavies and kicked to death on the street to shouts of "Die! Heretic!" :)

It will be interesting to see how house prices can climb when the banks are meant to be lending more while at the same time shoring up their balance books. And wage inflation is not looking that great over the next few years. Nor unemployment come to think of it. And inflation is still almost double the target. And we have cuts of 25-30% in some public services to come. Still, as long as house prices go up, that's the main thing.

I thought the OBR was meant to make sensible forecasts rather than the fairyland stuff that the chancellor and treasury usually come up with? ;)

QB

Did you look at the PDF?

Some figures (not facts)

Formatting is terrible and won't allow uploads when editing posts .. see next post for figures

Seems to me there's so much guesswork here especially CPi, Wage Growth and House Prices - this forecast is useless!

Edited by REP013

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did you look at the PDF?

Some figures (not facts)

Formatting is terrible and won't allow uploads when editing posts .. see next post for figures

Seems to me there's so much guesswork here especially CPi, Wage Growth and House Prices - this forecast is useless!

Capture.PNG

post-7479-12775512276196_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
<br />Are Berkeley Group the outfit that builds on brownfield sites and then hands it over to Housing Associations for shared ownership schemes?<br /><br />Buy a 30% share in a box on top of a toxic waste dump - minimum household income required only 40K.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

If you have a spare bit of time, do some research on the "Berkeley" family!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 144 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.