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Realistbear

P I M C O Buying U S Treasuries Contrary To Forecasts

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-24/gross-vows-this-time-different-with-el-erian-leading-push-in-global-stocks.html

Bonds Best Days
“Bonds have seen their best days,” says Gross, who anticipates returns of 4 percent to 5 percent in the new normal.
The king of bonds is now talking up stocks as a better long-term investment. He says that as U.S. Treasury returns fall, investors will have to take more risk with high-yield bonds, equities and, eventually, real estate.
“If you’re talking about the next 10, 15, 20 years, there’s certainly the recognition that assets will grow faster in those categories,” he says. “Over the long term, stocks return more than bonds when appropriately priced at the beginning of an investment period.”
Gross’s prophecy on bonds may not be coming true anytime soon. Since May, when he warned that European nations like Greece can’t rely on growth to finance their soaring deficits and would likely default, investors have poured into U.S. Treasuries.
..../
One thing El-Erian and Gross share is a penchant for publicizing their investment views, which can sometimes move markets. On Nov. 19, Gross wrote in his Investment Outlook on Pimco’s website that utility stocks were attractive with dividend yields of 5 to 6 percent. On that day, the Dow Jones Utilities Average of 15 stocks took off and hit a one-year high in less than a month..../
World’s Biggest Fund
The $227.9 billion Total Return Fund became the world’s biggest mutual fund in 2009, as Gross lured in investors with his handling of the financial crisis. Gross saw the mortgage debacle coming and was able to dodge most of the damage -- thanks partly to yoga.
In 2005, he suspected a housing bubble had formed. During a yoga session, it occurred to him to send analysts posing as homebuyers into the field to test his theory. The research helped him decide as early as 2005 to avoid subprime-mortgage- backed securities.

Even Big Bill proves to be fallible at times. Its a very interesting article and shows how a few can influence (Manipulate) the market for their own ends. He is no property VI.

He is more concerned about inflation than deflation but I do not agree with him as he underestimates the influence of the US on world markets and the fact that globalisation has increased the remoteness of decoupling rather than making it more likely. Sneeze:cold analogy still holds true.

I was posting bearish comments and emailing the financial editor in the Orange County Register in 2005 which is Bill's home newspaper and actually persuaded the paper to run some stories on the emerging statistics from the Multiple Listing Service which was showing sharp house price declines that the press were avoiding like the plague. I am proud to have done my bit for humanity. ;)

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-24/gross-vows-this-time-different-with-el-erian-leading-push-in-global-stocks.html

Bonds Best Days
“Bonds have seen their best days,” says Gross, who anticipates returns of 4 percent to 5 percent in the new normal.
He is more concerned about inflation than deflation but I do not agree with him as he underestimates the influence of the US on world markets and the fact that globalisation has increased the remoteness of decoupling rather than making it more likely. Sneeze:cold analogy still holds true.
I was posting bearish comments and emailing the financial editor in the Orange County Register in 2005 which is Bill's home newspaper and actually persuaded the paper to run some stories on the emerging statistics from the Multiple Listing Service which was showing sharp house price declines that the press were avoiding like the plague. I am proud to have done my bit for humanity.
;)
There is just so much denial about. There is clear eveidence of major funds carefully pulling out of stocks at present. They are returning to cash and bonds as the shield. So bonds may have a new lift coming. A large part of any common sense says that the stock market rally was nonsensical on paper and it simply requires the final correction followed by whatever finacial crisis the world deserves to put itself back on a sensible path. Fiat currencies are under real threat and govts know that, but of course, none can admit it.

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  • 258 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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