June Hpi - Predictions

[Meat Loaf]

We are at a critical moment in the house price recovery/crash. I predict we will see the following:

Halifax HPI -0.4%

Nationwide HPI -0.2%

Land Registry HPI +0.1% (as it lags behind the other indices)

[singlemalt]

You know I'd almost forgotten about the house price indices!

lol

Not sure, trying to make a prediction atm is like nailing jelly to the wall.

[Pent Up]

Oooo I like good hpi prediction thread.

Nationwide -0.4%

Halifax -1.1%

land reg. -0.4% with last month being revised down to -0.2%

[MrFlibble]

Hard to say since reality and the indexes seem to have parted ways. From what I am seeing on RightMove prices are heading down, and that's asking prices, so selling prices should be lower.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say the double-top has now completed and this is the turning month:-

Nationwide: -0.5%

Halifax: -1%

Hopefully the 2nd slope down will be ski-able

[porca misèria]

Why does everyone predict bigger drops in halifax than nationwide? I'll call those in reverse order

[pete.hpc]

Like the grand old Duke of York's men, they'll be neither up nor down

Any movement will be negligible in either direction, but fairly meaningless

Which would actually be quite telling at this time of year

[Guest_James Toney_*]

i would think level, any falls though will be welcomed

[Reluctant Heretic]

5% increase south and right of Birmingham, 1% increase south and left of Birmingham and 5% drop elsewhere leading to a 1% increase in Nationwide index and 0.5% drop in Halifax. Property 'experts' rush out their press releases - "House Prices Soar".

But I hope I am wrong.

[Pent Up]

Why does everyone predict bigger drops in halifax than nationwide? I'll call those in reverse order

nationwide is always the more optimistic one. Due to supply more mortgages to London and the south east apparently.

[bobthe~]

down about 1% seasonally adjusted, but it will be blamed on england's good or poor performance in the world cup, the fact that June was hotter/colder/wetter/drier than usual or anything else spurious you care to imagine.

[abharrisson]

We are at a critical moment in the house price recovery/crash. I predict we will see the following:

Halifax HPI -0.4%

Nationwide HPI -0.2%

Land Registry HPI +0.1% (as it lags behind the other indices)

Doesn't really matter whether its up or down to me for three reasons

1/ Its unlikely to apply to my locality anyway whatever the result ( or to anyones for that matter)... people still don't seem to get this.

2/ I really couldn't be any further away from believing that the market is going to go into some huge new crash phase with the result being some lovely overcorrection and buying opportunities for all as a result..... sure it needs some more correction to get back with the realms of reallity but I firmly believe any such correction will be long and slow and won't be characterised by an overcorrection or anything like.

3/ With sample sizes still being very very low the national figures are unlikely to have any real relevance and the local/regional figures even less so..... at the level of chnage you are anticipating I doubt thats even at the rounding error level of the stats.

[scottbeard]

I think both Halifax and Nationwide will be down a little bit. I agree with all those calling a top, but it could take 6 months before we see regular significant falls like 2008.

[ReJoyce]

As a contrarian:

H: +0.7%

N: +0.3%

regards

J

[TheCountOfNowhere]

A thread about housing...refreshing.

I say....Down Down Down.

So probably up :-)

I predict, slight increase for halifax,

Nationwide, medium sized drop. Their number crunchers wil have realised their figures are starting to look stupid compared to the Halifax ( with the bigger market share ) so I expect a "seasonal adjustment" down from them.

Edited June 25, 2010 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Realistbear]

Until credit is restricted and jobs are lost HPI will continue unabated. The consequences of the banksters' whoopsie have not been felt at street level yet and we may have another 3-6 months before anyone notices that the banks and the nation are bust.

On a local level (East of Brighton) drops are small over the last few months. I have 3 friends all selling at the moment and one dropped from 230 to 190 and it sold but came back on the market after the buyer's lender wanted a bigger deposit. One friend has so far sold (subject to a long chain) and may make a proft from having bought 2 years ago at 175 (Builder discounted from 225 to 175)--she has "sold" for 195. The other friend has had offers at about 100k below asking (asking in the high 500's) which would wipe out any profits from the last 5 years of ownership. Bottom line: the market is slipping here in this part of the SE but the numbers have somehow failed to find their way in the stats. Can't think why that should be.

[pablopatito]

Things seem to have suddenly picked up over the last week or two round my way (East Midlands), after a completely dead couple of months. Hopefully its just a blip.

[Realistbear]

Things seem to have suddenly picked up over the last week or two round my way (East Midlands), after a completely dead couple of months. Hopefully its just a blip.

It is no blip. Jobs are plentiful in the Midlands as factories are hiring again due to expansion in the motor industry as a result of the sovereign debt crisis being resolved in Europe. Pent up demand is also causing houses to fly of the shelves a little further North in Sheffield and Leeds as recession turns back to bouyant growth.

Best get on the ladder before prices start to get unaffordable.

[Timm]

Noise, but watch the revised figures from Acadametrics.

[Meat Loaf]

Lets just hope it goes down this month so we can build some momentum