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Electrical Production Growth - Good Barometer

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In 2000 I made a prediction that electrical production would grow by 14 times from the year 1999 to the year 2099. Specifically from 14.7 thousand terrawatt hours the 1999 production to ~200 thousand terrawatt hours.

This requires a global average increase of 2.7% a year. Compounded over 100 years that works out to 1400%.

So to be on pace we would have to hit 19.2k twh in 2009. Well the global production was 20.1k twh in 2009.

My prediction for 2019 is 25k twh. A 25% increase from today's levels.

Btw at £.05 a kilowatt/hour * 20.1k twh = £1 trillion pounds.

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In 2000 I made a prediction that electrical production would grow by 14 times from the year 1999 to the year 2099. Specifically from 14.7 thousand terrawatt hours the 1999 production to ~200 thousand terrawatt hours.

This requires a global average increase of 2.7% a year. Compounded over 100 years that works out to 1400%.

So to be on pace we would have to hit 19.2k twh in 2009. Well the global production was 20.1k twh in 2009.

My prediction for 2019 is 25k twh. A 25% increase from today's levels.

Btw at £.05 a kilowatt/hour * 20.1k twh = £1 trillion pounds.

Is there a way you could be on your prediction? You could have made some money from that?

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Is there a way you could be on your prediction? You could have made some money from that?

Good question. The best way to make money is when the consensus strongly believes something that turns out to be wrong. One possible way would be to bet on the biggest coal producing companies/regions.

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Not to worry, renewables will save us, wind is currently contributing 0.1% to the national grid :-

http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm

I remember in 2009 some Labour leaders saying how we had to accelerate installation of wind power.. as the Spanish and Portuguese were ahead of us and enjoying so much economic success with their new green economies.

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In 2000 I made a prediction that electrical production would grow by 14 times from the year 1999 to the year 2099. Specifically from 14.7 thousand terrawatt hours the 1999 production to ~200 thousand terrawatt hours.

This requires a global average increase of 2.7% a year. Compounded over 100 years that works out to 1400%.

So to be on pace we would have to hit 19.2k twh in 2009. Well the global production was 20.1k twh in 2009.

My prediction for 2019 is 25k twh. A 25% increase from today's levels.

Btw at £.05 a kilowatt/hour * 20.1k twh = £1 trillion pounds.

there are a lot of power stations being built at present, smaller privately owned ones that will feed into the grid. I cant remember who is the biggest contributer at the moment but it is foreign government. Sorry, bit vague but it genuinely suprised me as I would never have expected it.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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