_w_ Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Some old correlations are breaking down. Mainly, USD is going down while stocks are going down, it bothers me. But all sorts of indicators, euro credit, the yen going up, bank shares taking a beating, etc. are all over the place. Could be the G20, but I get the feeling something nasty is in the works. USD going down while stocks go down could be the beginning of that big dollar move so many expect. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 govt paradigm shift from stimulus to austerity. markets processing information. legislative things happening across Europe and Asias in this respect. trying to assess new prices for bonds shares etc in light of new info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 govt paradigm shift from stimulus to austerity. markets processing information. legislative things happening across Europe and Asias in this respect. trying to assess new prices for bonds shares etc in light of new info. These things have been going on for a few weeks, the Yen for example has been going up for a while now. These are major shifts if they are sustained. I would have thought there is a common thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seydel Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 The something nasty is, in all probability, an all-out assault on Iran. I have no inside sources but I do have faith in Jim Tucker, the legendary Bilderberg stalker, who's positive that it was given the green light at their annual conference earlier this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 I have no idea... but I thought I would post... None of it makes any sense anymore. It is all being manipulated at levels that we do not even know about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 The something nasty is, in all probability, an all-out assault on Iran. I think the dollar would go up if it was that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Some old correlations are breaking down. Mainly, USD is going down while stocks are going down, it bothers me. But all sorts of indicators, euro credit, the yen going up, bank shares taking a beating, etc. are all over the place. Could be the G20, but I get the feeling something nasty is in the works. USD going down while stocks go down could be the beginning of that big dollar move so many expect. Any thoughts? Dow has very strong technical support at 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Some old correlations are breaking down. Mainly, USD is going down while stocks are going down, it bothers me. But all sorts of indicators, euro credit, the yen going up, bank shares taking a beating, etc. are all over the place. Could be the G20, but I get the feeling something nasty is in the works. USD going down while stocks go down could be the beginning of that big dollar move so many expect. Any thoughts? Euro/JPY got pulled out the fire. Not sure if that was Yen intervention??? I noticed the dollar up/gold up correlated trade since April (i.e. anti Euro safety trade) reversed recently and we seemed to revert to the prior 'normality'. Today was abit weird - Euro up but equities down and TNX (10 yr yields) gapped down then reversed higher. I read it all as a likely pivot moment probably connected with the G20. Perhaps some intervention in advance on the currency side? Perhaps they wanted to ensure there were no 'accidents' with Euro/JPY breaking support after its recent sell off? My take would be that yields have bottomed and will reverse along with equities next week - but we're close enough to the lows for the opposite to happen. Which is a little concerning. 2p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 (edited) Some old correlations are breaking down. Mainly, USD is going down while stocks are going down, it bothers me. But all sorts of indicators, euro credit, the yen going up, bank shares taking a beating, etc. are all over the place. Could be the G20, but I get the feeling something nasty is in the works. USD going down while stocks go down could be the beginning of that big dollar move so many expect. Any thoughts? The second leg down is already underway in the US and is no different here. Eurozone are running out of paper to cover the cracks and I suspect containment is about to unravel. IMO, 3 days in a row down on the FTSE is a sign the bull run has finished given all of the other negatives now in play. The US$ will, if anything pick up if all hell breaks out over here as the traditional flight to safety. The Chinese have been piling into the $/US Treasuries very recently and everyone is selling Euro backed paper. Even Russia has been buying US treasuries in anticipation of another Euro melt-down. Can't see Sterling becoming the reserve currency of choice given that our debt is worse than Greece although better than Japan. Can't see what is going to happen to sterling. It is up against everything at the moment and it is hard to see why unless its just a flight to relative safety compared with the Euro. I can see a massive stock correction brewing VERY soon. Maybe a black Friday tomorrow as the DOW finished down around 150 points. $ = Euro 1.23279 Up one half cent vs $ today Pound: 1.49224 Down a quarter of a cent over last 24 hours vs. dollar Edited June 24, 2010 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC10 Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Full moon eclipse in capricorn this weekend, June 26, always bad news for money and stocks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/european-stocks-slip-on-global-recovery-jitters-afp-565e81bd2528.html European stocks slip on global recovery jitters 13:06, Thursday 24 June 2010 European stock markets fell on Thursday, hit by global economic recovery concerns after gloomy economic data and downbeat comments from the US Federal Reserve. London's benchmark FTSE 100 index of top shares fell 0.57 percent to 5,148.74 points, Frankfurt's DAX 30 (Xetra: news) lost 0.52 percent to 6,172.35 points and the Paris CAC 40 shed 0.90 percent to 3,609.13. "European bourses slid as concerns over the strength and sustainability of any global recovery returned," said Giles Watts, head of equities at trading firm City Index. "Sentiment remains cautionary after the Fed damped its prospects for speed of the global recovery, citing amongst other issues the plight of European debt worries and the ongoing impact this is having on the markets." Asian markets also mainly fell as the downbeat Fed assessment and record-low US home sales raised fears about the state of the world's biggest economy. The US economy sputters and the rest of the world shudders. Sentiment is turning sharply down as the reality of debt still looms large. A slowing world economy offers no prospects of a speedy recovery and austerity will dampen growth even further. The downward spiral begins and we may end up in a deflationary mode--seems inevitable as the bubble continues to deflate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Full moon eclipse in capricorn this weekend, June 26, always bad news for money and stocks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Full moon eclipse in capricorn this weekend, June 26, always bad news for money and stocks Full moon and three times as many witches Friday (triplewitchingfriday)--could see our "Black Friday" at long last. Would that be 10% down? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indirectapproach Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 I don't see the dollar going down in any meaningful sense, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 I don't see the dollar going down in any meaningful sense, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= It was up today against most currencies: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/world-stocks-weighed-by-growth-fears-reuters_molt-109b92b3c242.html?x=0 For its part, the dollar was up against a basket of major trading-partner currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index rising a touch at 0.02 percent to 85.762 from a previous session close of 85.741. Sterling is doing extremely well as the only nation to not have felt the effects of the Eurozone sovereign debt issues or the double dip now under-way in the US. 1.49292 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 The something nasty is, in all probability, an all-out assault on Iran. I have no inside sources but I do have faith in Jim Tucker, the legendary Bilderberg stalker, who's positive that it was given the green light at their annual conference earlier this month. Every few weeks or so for the last 4 or 5 years people have been saying that http://www.thenation.com/article/war-signals http://www.antiwar.com/roberts/?articleid=9749 Remember, the reason we didnt invade North Korea, unlike Iraq is because N.Korea did have WMD. So does Iran. US only invades countries it knows dont pose a threat. Id be very surprised if the US invaded Iran. Only way I can see it happening is if the Israeli army invades because of unhinged demagogue's in their parliament, and the US gets roped in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Every few weeks or so for the last 4 or 5 years people have been saying that http://www.thenation.com/article/war-signals http://www.antiwar.com/roberts/?articleid=9749 Remember, the reason we didnt invade North Korea, unlike Iraq is because N.Korea did have WMD. So does Iran. US only invades countries it knows dont pose a threat. Id be very surprised if the US invaded Iran. Only way I can see it happening is if the Israeli army invades because of unhinged demagogue's in their parliament, and the US gets roped in. Or if Armourdinnerjacket follows through with his threat to annihilate Israel? I doubt any nation would risk an assault against a nuke country just in case they loosed one before being taken down themselves. The only nation threatening to use Nukes is Iran if their rhetoric about annihilation of Israel is taken literally. North Korea is more bluff than anything and they know the Chinese will punish them if they do anything that would affect Chinese business. Dear Leader will be taken out within 24 hours in such a scenario and he was probably told as much when he "visited" Beijing recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 I am backing the Jonathan Cainer school of economics! Looks like a full moon tonight... but it ain't quite... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 The US economy sputters and the rest of the world shudders. Sentiment is turning sharply down as the reality of debt still looms large. A slowing world economy offers no prospects of a speedy recovery and austerity will dampen growth even further. The downward spiral begins and we may end up in a deflationary mode--seems inevitable as the bubble continues to deflate. That's the thing though, in such scenario I would expect USD to be strong but I find it to look distinctly shaky at the moment. Not weak mind you but shaky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sillybear2 Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Some old correlations are breaking down. Mainly, USD is going down while stocks are going down, it bothers me. Hidden money printing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 The markets will crash on the day we all take the afternoon off or we go down the pub. Let's all go to the pub tomorrow - cheaper cider! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 Euro/JPY got pulled out the fire. Not sure if that was Yen intervention??? USDJPY was moving freely today. I noticed the dollar up/gold up correlated trade since April (i.e. anti Euro safety trade) reversed recently and we seemed to revert to the prior 'normality'. Today was abit weird - Euro up but equities down and TNX (10 yr yields) gapped down then reversed higher. I read it all as a likely pivot moment probably connected with the G20. Perhaps some intervention in advance on the currency side? Perhaps they wanted to ensure there were no 'accidents' with Euro/JPY breaking support after its recent sell off? My take would be that yields have bottomed and will reverse along with equities next week - but we're close enough to the lows for the opposite to happen. Which is a little concerning. 2p Swiss apart, I don't think there was as much currency intervention as suspected. Wouldn't USD go up if US yields went up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 That's the thing though, in such scenario I would expect USD to be strong but I find it to look distinctly shaky at the moment. Not weak mind you but shaky. I agree. I think the money is wondering where to go and its a case of choosing between the least of many evils. In a worst case scenario the US will be safest IMO. And I think we may be approaching the worst case scenario soon. 1.4999 high vs the $ today. Lot of resistance at over 1.50. Currently 1.4927 which is a very tight range compared with recent weeks. Market looking for direction. Can't see Sterling rising much more before a corrective dip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 Hidden money printing. That's one thing I've been wondering about. The Fed's balance sheet has kept growing even though it's QE program is meant to have ended. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 USDJPY was moving freely today. Swiss apart, I don't think there was as much currency intervention as suspected. Wouldn't USD go up if US yields went up? 2 years hit an all time low this week. I think the US are going into deflation. Chinese piling into US Treasuries. I am quite heavily in PIMCO Total Bond Fund and it is flying up at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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