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Double Dip Recession, Structural Deficit Etc

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I don't start too many topics but there is a big issue that I do not understand.

I think that it was the Item Club that said that there would have to be public spending savings of 48 Billion to get rid of the structural deficit, the rest being cyclical.

We also hear talk of a double-dip recession.

What is it that gives rise to this confidence. Why can't things just get worse and then worse again?

Did Moses have a third tablet that said that there would be economic cycles that would necessarily have periods of recovery? Where does it say that recessions will have to end in recovery? Why can't things just continue to get worse?

Just asking.

p-o-p

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I don't start too many topics but there is a big issue that I do not understand.

I think that it was the Item Club that said that there would have to be public spending savings of 48 Billion to get rid of the structural deficit, the rest being cyclical.

We also hear talk of a double-dip recession.

What is it that gives rise to this confidence. Why can't things just get worse and then worse again?

Did Moses have a third tablet that said that there would be economic cycles that would necessarily have periods of recovery? Where does it say that recessions will have to end in recovery? Why can't things just continue to get worse?

Just asking.

p-o-p

I suppose the reasoning is that all the other recessions came to an end and a recovery developed. Although in some cases the recovery came after such pain (maybe like Russia after its default in the 90s) that you wonder whether that put the country ahead again, or even made up the ground lost (like 3 steps back and 1 step forward sort of thing).

Since this is a pondering thread... the talk has been of reducing the deficit, which is the money being borrowed each month. So, if we get that down to zero within this parliament that still leaves an underlying debt of several hundred billion does it not? OK, so we can reduce our debt payments (a bit like paying down the credit card), but how long will it take at 2-3% annual growth to actually reduce that debt down to a manageable level (y'know, in the £40-50Bn range, like in the old days)?

It seems like a 2 step plan: 1)Stop borrowing so much money (ideally, borrow none at all, or practically none) and then 2)Pay back the stupid amount we have already borrowed. We need Alvin (from "your money or your life", not the chipmunks), he gives expert plans like my 2 step programme! ;)

N

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Andrew Neil tonight said (and I haven't checked his research, I expect it is good):

Only on 3 out of the 37 recessions on record going back to the mid 19th Century has there been a 'double dip,' so it is rare.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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