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Stressed-Out

The Truth Will Out

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I am seeing a big reductions in asking prices for houses on the market in my area - 20% is not uncommon, especially for those that have been on for upwards of 6 months or so - yet when I read the national press, they talk of house prices being down by 0.2%.

Why is no one in the media reporting what's really going on?

Is there any way of using this forum to collate the information we all have about the actual extent of falling house prices and get it into the national news?

Is it worth a try?

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I am seeing a big reductions in asking prices for houses on the market in my area - 20% is not uncommon, especially for those that have been on for upwards of 6 months or so - yet when I read the national press, they talk of house prices being down by 0.2%.

Why is no one in the media reporting what's really going on?

Is there any way of using this forum to collate the information we all have about the actual extent of falling house prices and get it into the national news?

Is it worth a try?

No need to panic. Land Registry figures - at least 3 months out of date, more in most cases. Building Society (Halifax and Nationwide) figures - based on mortgagae approvals, not actual purchases - there is loads of anecdotal evidence of sales falling through recently.

The only survey based on proper, up-to-date sales comes with an EA spin, but still admits to a year of consecutive falls in house prices month to month (Rightmove). National surveys are tilted by the fact that Scotland and NI are still rising (but miles behind in average price).

IMO, England has been falling since Q4 2004, and shows now sign of stopping. Sure, there will be local fluctuations, but the truth is out. Overpriced homes are no longer selling. It's percolating into mainstream media...I read my housemate's Daily Mail today - he was on a bus, that's his excuse - a prominent story about how the Blairs have negative equity on their London and Bristol properties.

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I think the only way to gauge actual falls is to compare the actual purchase price of a property on nethouseprices during the peak (summer-winter 2004) with the same properties selling price now. Not very easy perhaps due to there having been very few bought and sold during this timeframe, but perhaps the only way to gauge real price falls. This will become easier over time as distressed sellers who bought at the peak are forced to sell.

In this situation someone will actually have lost money as opposed to someone who sells now for less than they thought they could have got at the peak. Many of those so called valuations were afterall just imaginary. Thats why I believe that 20% is a little overoptomistic at the moment. Give it time though.

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I think the only way to gauge actual falls is to compare the actual purchase price of a property on nethouseprices during the peak (summer-winter 2004) with the same properties selling price now. Not very easy perhaps due to there having been very few bought and sold during this timeframe, but perhaps the only way to gauge real price falls. This will become easier over time as distressed sellers who bought at the peak are forced to sell.

In this situation someone will actually have lost money as opposed to someone who sells now for less than they thought they could have got at the peak. Many of those so called valuations were afterall just imaginary. Thats why I believe that 20% is a little overoptomistic at the moment. Give it time though.

I don't think 20% is over-optimistic..I just think some people see the word "crash" and imagine a Wall Street type collapse. My personal guess is -25% by 2008...that still means HPI has massively outstripped wage inflation. That is a fall of less than 1% per month, much less in fact.

People who own homes do not yet realise it is impossible to sell them at the price they expect; people who are trying to sell are finding out fast. Negative year-on-year inflation WILL show up in all the surveys soon - then it's headline time. Cue big drops as investors try to get out at the top. Keep the faith, keep your assets liquid for 2007/8.

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I don't think 20% is over-optimistic..I just think some people see the word "crash" and imagine a Wall Street type collapse. My personal guess is -25% by 2008...that still means HPI has massively outstripped wage inflation. That is a fall of less than 1% per month, much less in fact.

People who own homes do not yet realise it is impossible to sell them at the price they expect; people who are trying to sell are finding out fast. Negative year-on-year inflation WILL show up in all the surveys soon - then it's headline time. Cue big drops as investors try to get out at the top. Keep the faith, keep your assets liquid for 2007/8.

You missunderstood Leodhasach. I guess 30% by 2008 with more to come. The 20% I was talking about was 20% reductions at this point. That is quite optomistic you must admit.

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I am seeing a big reductions in asking prices for houses on the market in my area - 20% is not uncommon, especially for those that have been on for upwards of 6 months or so - yet when I read the national press, they talk of house prices being down by 0.2%.

Because on average, prices are only down 0.2%. Here in Bristol, apart from city centre flats, prices are stubbornly rufusing to fall.

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I know what you're saying about the drop in asking prices not really being a true indicator of a drop in house values, and of course you are right, but here's an example of what I mean local to where I live in West Kent:

This property went on the market around 4 months ago at £275K

http://www.vebra.com/home/search/vdetails....882&pid=9594466

As you can see, it's now on at £219K. Clearly, the house is a bit of a dump and needs redecorating in a serious way, but that's still a big drop in the asking price.

Now, you would argue that the house was totally overpriced in the first place, which is why it hasn't sold and why the asking price has fallen (all true).

However, two identical properties have sold in that same street this year: one at £240K (13/4/05) and one at £243K (5/4/05) - presumably this one had magnolia walls... Both those properties also originally went on at £275K.

So, I make that a -10% drop in value in the last three months or so, based on actual sales figures.

All of which leaves me feeling very, very :D:D:D

And I suppose I just want people to share in the good news.

Edited by Stressed-Out

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"A three bedroomed semi detached house in a popular area within approximately one mile from Tunbridge Wells town centre. Now requiring upgrading, this home has a superb dual aspect 25" through reception room; the kitchen and bathroom both require upgrading. There are two double and one single bedrooms and a lawned rear garden. There is a garage with driveway and below the garage, accessed from rear garden are three garden store rooms."

Bet it didn't need upgrading when it first went on the market!

Don't EAs talk bolleaux?

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This one has been on sale for over 9 months.

Started on the market at £275K changed EA to BE 4 weeks ago and put it on at £225K

Last week it was reduced again.

http://prop.bepropertyservices.co.uk/showd...l.htp?hsid=2624

Could argue that there is nothing really wrong with this house. In a good area - Only problems seems to be the price when you look at the actually sales figures for this street.

27 Feb 2004 39 Elmar Road, Liverpool, Merseyside L17 0DA Semi-Detached £153,500

7 Feb 2003 44 Elmar Road, Liverpool, Merseyside L17 0DB Semi-Detached £130,000

16 Sep 2002 9 Elmar Road, Liverpool, Merseyside L17 0DA Semi-Detached £115,000

26 Oct 2001 8 Elmar Road, Liverpool, Merseyside L17 0DB Semi-Detached £75,000

Now I dont know about you, but Feb 2004 aint too far away from PEAK time. So why the phuck have the estate agents being upping the price to £275K when the highest one has EVER sold is £153,500?

answers on a postcard please

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I am seeing a big reductions in asking prices for houses on the market in my area - 20% is not uncommon, especially for those that have been on for upwards of 6 months or so - yet when I read the national press, they talk of house prices being down by 0.2%.

Why is no one in the media reporting what's really going on?

Is there any way of using this forum to collate the information we all have about the actual extent of falling house prices and get it into the national news?

Is it worth a try?

I've seen similar in Kent. That why I believe the media will never

report the truth. They have got all the information they need to

sink this over-inflated mess, but won't because the astronomical damage

they could do over-night!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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