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It's The May Bounce With 36,000 Mortgage Approvals

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while it seems the news papers are starting to get into line with the serious recent events, the bbc needs to shut up and get on message with the people and the real challenges ahead. absolute idiots.

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:blink:

From that article:

March: 35,044

April: 35,729

May: 36,709

Looks remarkably flat to me, for a bounce...

yes, but it's the usual spin from the BBC - and they wouldn't have got to use their 'spring flower' picture otherwise...

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No substance in this story. The banks have merely increased their market share at the expense of the building socs and will continue to do so whilst we have low IR's.

http://www.ftadviser.com/FTAdviser/Mortgages/Lenders/News/article/20100623/930d0aa4-7ea6-11df-ae99-00144f2af8e8/High-street-banks-increase-share-of-mortgage-lending.jsp

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Chart for BBA approvals puts the BBC's claimed May 'bounce' into perspective:

So 2002 90k mortgage approvals average loan £80k.

2010 36k mortgage approvals average loan £150k

Goes to show houses are far too expensive to buy at the moment.....if you find a buyer with the available funds don't upset them, keep them sweet...few and far between for the foreseeable future. ;)

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There is a widespread feeling of optimism across all sectors this week with Sterling rising against both the Euro and the $. The view being taken is that there may be trouble in the Eurozone and the US economy is faltering and the Chinese are facing trouble but post-Brown Britain is well placed to not only weather the storms elsewhere but will be the safe haven for investing in our houses and stocks. I hate to say it but Brown may be vindicated if this trend continues. Credit markets are loosening as borrowing begins to pick up and the danger has passed seems to be the overall feeling in the market. The credit binge partying is back!

Pound = $1.49319

Euro = 1.21498

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May is a difficult month for the property market.

This year for example, there were two, yes two, bank holidays during the month.

Expect June to be little better, as there are only 30 days in June. In fact June will be a complete stinker given the distraction of the World Cup and the Austerity Budget.

Forget about July as the schools finish for the school year, and all house buyers in August will be on holiday.

September sees the first full month of the Football season, and October is the usual 'Market Crash' month where millions of potentially solvent buyers will be sticking with their cash.

November sees all the Women out Christmas shopping, something that the men start in earnest only on the 24th December, and global cooling will see that particular month cover the nation in snow like it did last year. Makes houses look picturesque, but the blocked roads mean you cant get to see them.

Luckily, I am not an estate agent.

Edited by leicestersq

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God save me from the HPC sheeple..... actually the article was pretty well balanced.. none of the facts were wrong , they attributed the piece about three rises in a row to the BBA, and then softened it by saying land registry figures have been flat this month..... there are spme pretty clear examples of slanted reporting around... I'd save your fire for one that actually counts..... equally I don't remember anyone on HPC being similarly up in arms when the negative reporting went too far , which it did, during the heat fo the downturn and afterwards, nor do I remember any HPC member joining me in outing those other HPC'ers who baltantly spin the news each and every day.

Spinning doesn't only happen on one side you know, and it certainly isn't present to the degree you cliam in the article you use.

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These numbers are dire. Mortgage rates have fallen recently too.

The comprensive spending review in the autumn will suck a load of demand out of the market.

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Chart for BBA approvals puts the BBC's claimed May 'bounce' into perspective:

bbaapprovals0510.gif

Meanwhile the average house purchase loan value is over 150K again:

bbaloanval0510.gif

WHY the hell are so many estate agents still open.

Are 50,000 odd people buying cash in hand every month??!!

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WHY the hell are so many estate agents still open.

Are 50,000 odd people buying cash in hand every month??!!

Lettings.

The parasites are caning it in from the more rapid turnover of rental clients.

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God save me from the HPC sheeple..... actually the article was pretty well balanced.. none of the facts were wrong , they attributed the piece about three rises in a row to the BBA, and then softened it by saying land registry figures have been flat this month..... there are spme pretty clear examples of slanted reporting around... I'd save your fire for one that actually counts..... equally I don't remember anyone on HPC being similarly up in arms when the negative reporting went too far , which it did, during the heat fo the downturn and afterwards, nor do I remember any HPC member joining me in outing those other HPC'ers who baltantly spin the news each and every day.

Spinning doesn't only happen on one side you know, and it certainly isn't present to the degree you cliam in the article you use.

We face a daily barrage of media coverage trumpeting any upward movement in either transactions, approvals or prices as 'good news'. It is relentless. Although this article may not be as extreme in its bias as the Daily Express might be, it still adheres to the same tenet.

A very minor move upwards during the Spring/Summer season is being reported as a bounce. Yes, they go on to say it's far lower than it was in 2007, but that's not the angle they take to lead the story - quite telling in journalistic terms, as that's what people see first.

This site is populated by people who, sadly, represent a minority in this country - those who realise that ever-rising HPI is harmful.

It's called HPC. Of course it's biased. We are VIs just as much as the 'other side'. And of course we're more sensitive to press that doesn't sit well with our agenda - sometimes this leads to over-reaction and emotional outbursts...

Spinning most certainly doesn't happen on one side, but in the mainstream media you'd struggle to find any commentators who would advocate house price falls as a good thing. Most newspapers carry property ads and are therefore editorially obliged to keep the goodship HPI sailing. The odd 'rogue' hack like Patrick Collinson is a rare breed.

If you find any more, do let us know.

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We face a daily barrage of media coverage trumpeting any upward movement in either transactions, approvals or prices as 'good news'. It is relentless. Although this article may not be as extreme in its bias as the Daily Express might be, it still adheres to the same tenet.

A very minor move upwards during the Spring/Summer season is being reported as a bounce. Yes, they go on to say it's far lower than it was in 2007, but that's not the angle they take to lead the story - quite telling in journalistic terms, as that's what people see first.

This site is populated by people who, sadly, represent a minority in this country - those who realise that ever-rising HPI is harmful.

It's called HPC. Of course it's biased. We are VIs just as much as the 'other side'. And of course we're more sensitive to press that doesn't sit well with our agenda - sometimes this leads to over-reaction and emotional outbursts...

Spinning most certainly doesn't happen on one side, but in the mainstream media you'd struggle to find any commentators who would advocate house price falls as a good thing. Most newspapers carry property ads and are therefore editorially obliged to keep the goodship HPI sailing. The odd 'rogue' hack like Patrick Collinson is a rare breed.

If you find any more, do let us know.

Well said. We are VIs so you have to expect us to make the best of things. The same as a VI estate agent would on the other side. But the media should be reporting the facts without adding bias to either side. Yet the majority are heavily bias in favour of HPI.

Back on topic. Last years rise in approvals from april to may was 7%. This year is 2% hardly worthy of reporting on?

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Well said. We are VIs so you have to expect us to make the best of things. The same as a VI estate agent would on the other side. But the media should be reporting the facts without adding bias to either side. Yet the majority are heavily bias in favour of HPI.

Back on topic. Last years rise in approvals from april to may was 7%. This year is 2% hardly worthy of reporting on?

Had it been reported as a weak rise, indicative of an uncertain, fragile market still vastly over-priced, I'd have been satisfied.

As it was, the BBC gave us pictures of spring flowers and a bullish headline... <_<

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Someone said it was mostly remortgages - is there a new mortgage lending chart? and what remortgages (increased debt or just moving banks?)

Sarah – the figures don’t include remortgages. These are accounted for separately by the BBA. The approvals chart shown above is for new residential mortgage lending only.

BBA members don’t account for all new mortgages of course, and at the height of the boom their share of lending nearly went as low as 50%. Now however it’s back over 70% as specialist lenders/vehicles have fallen by the wayside.

Here’s the latest chart for all approvals (doesn’t include May 2010 as the Bank of England figures have yet to be published).

boevsbbaapprovals0410.gif

What’s interesting is that there is an assumption (based on historical experience) that more approvals/transactions equates to higher home prices. This relationship may not necessarily hold over the coming years. The banks and building societies are now constrained with available mortgage funding, and indeed are still being supported by state guarantees (e.g. the Special Liquidity Scheme). Therefore in the absence of additional sources of funding, we can either have X mortgages at an average house price of Y, or we can have greater than X mortgages at an average price of less than Y.

Consequently in due course we may well see approvals numbers rising despite prices falling.

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  • 143 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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