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Realistbear

Double Dip Is 100% Certain, Guaranteed

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/May-home-sales-dip-as-housing-apf-1632613040.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

May home sales dip as housing market struggles
Sales of previously occupied homes dip 2.2 percent despite help from federal tax credits
Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer, On Tuesday June 22, 2010, 3:38 pm EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The housing market may be on the verge of taking another plunge that could weaken the broader economic recovery.
Sales of previously occupied homes dipped in May, even though buyers could receive government tax credits. And nearly a third of sales in May were from foreclosures or other distressed properties. That means home prices could soon be heading down after stabilizing over the past year.
Last month's sales fell 2.2 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.66 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Analysts who had expected sales to rise expressed concern that the
real estate market could tumble once the benefit of the federal tax incentives is gone entirely, starting next month.

There is no doubt in my mind that we are going to follow the US down into a double dip. Everything in the bubble markets stands or falls on housing and the confidence levels that are tied to housing.

We haven't even had our first correction yet and we always follow the US. Our government is not going to be able to prop up the credit markets that back house prices and everything is pointing to retracting credit--the Eurozone is feeling it. We are going to go down the same road as everyone else. When the panic begins here it will be sever, painful and inevitable. It is the reason Ozzy kept CGT at low levels--FEAR that anything could trigger the herd to sell their inflated BTL portfolios and multiple home collections and our economy goes over the cliff.

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I hope you're wrong - because I just sold my 'short' on the FTSE. I've had enough of trying to invest (yes I go long, too) in what should actually happen due to fundamentals and am now going to go on sentiment - this market's crazy. If it does start to go down the sh!tter then maybe I'll go short on the FTSE again - but right now it is more volatile than it has been for a long time.

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I hope you're wrong - because I just sold my 'short' on the FTSE. I've had enough of trying to invest (yes I go long, too) in what should actually happen due to fundamentals and am now going to go on sentiment - this market's crazy. If it does start to go down the sh!tter then maybe I'll go short on the FTSE again - but right now it is more volatile than it has been for a long time.

Go long Fiat.....but not too long, hey ;)

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I hope you're wrong - because I just sold my 'short' on the FTSE. I've had enough of trying to invest (yes I go long, too) in what should actually happen due to fundamentals and am now going to go on sentiment - this market's crazy. If it does start to go down the sh!tter then maybe I'll go short on the FTSE again - but right now it is more volatile than it has been for a long time.

The reality of the awful position Brown has left us in is taking a long time to sink in. The FTSE has not really been hammered that much and is still above 5000 and the pound is sticking close to 1.50 on the $ which suggests the market enjoyed Ozzy's budget--but I cannot see why. There was nothing that suggested growth other than in house prices if the mild CGT hike is seen as a green light for more BTL and multiple homes. Our housing correction is still pending and that will be cataclysmic. The US are still deflating their housing bubble and it has already taken 40% plus off the giant Californian market with more to come now that government subsidies are being withdrawn.

We have a few more months in Fools Paradise IMO.

In the meantime the FTSE looks like it is heading toward the green. That will be 8 out of 9 days up--at a time when the world is in turmoil and all the fundamentals are looking bad in the short term and worse further out--especially if the US economy is double dipping. Add China to the mix and their bursting bubbles and I would be very short on stocks--in fact I am now only about 2% overall in stocks and nearly all the rest in PIMCO's Total Bond Fund (up 4.54% so far this year) and US$ with a smattering of sterling.

Edited by Realistbear

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The reality of the awful position Brown has left us in is taking a long time to sink in. The FTSE has not really been hammered that much and is still above 5000 and the pound is sticking close to 1.50 on the $ which suggests the market enjoyed Ozzy's budget--but I cannot see why. There was nothing that suggested growth other than in house prices if the mild CGT hike is seen as a green light for more BTL and multiple homes. Our housing correction is still pending and that will be cataclysmic. The US are still deflating their housing bubble and it has already taken 40% plus off the giant Californian market with more to come now that government subsidies are being withdrawn.

We have a few more months in Fools Paradise IMO.

I'm finding myself agreeing with you quite a bit today. However, I think the market likes the fact that we're tackling the debt problem; give it a few months/years and all the talking heads will be saying how they recommended this action and it was wise, long term thinking (when, ofc, they were saying the opposite at the time!). ;)

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The reality of the awful position Brown has left us in is taking a long time to sink in. The FTSE has not really been hammered that much and is still above 5000 and the pound is sticking close to 1.50 on the $ which suggests the market enjoyed Ozzy's budget--but I cannot see why. There was nothing that suggested growth other than in house prices if the mild CGT hike is seen as a green light for more BTL and multiple homes. Our housing correction is still pending and that will be cataclysmic. The US are still deflating their housing bubble and it has already taken 40% plus off the giant Californian market with more to come now that government subsidies are being withdrawn.

We have a few more months in Fools Paradise IMO.

In the meantime the FTSE looks like it is heading toward the green. That will be 8 out of 9 days up--at a time when the world is in turmoil and all the fundamentals are looking bad in the short term and worse further out--especially if the US economy is double dipping. Add China to the mix and their bursting bubbles and I would be very short on stocks--in fact I am now only about 2% overall in stocks and nearly all the rest in PIMCO's Total Bond Fund (up 4.54% so far this year) and US$ with a smattering of sterling.

The pound is up because the rating agencies are happier and the BofE minutes gave some indication that we are more likely to see an interest rate rise in the medium term - can't see it myself but...

Edited by EvilEdna

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i think that the only thing that will cause a double dip is rising interest rates and that will not happen. It will only occur if we have infaltion which is on its way, so the effect of the interest rate rise will be offset by this.

The housing market dipped when lending was constrained, whilst it still still is to some extent this will only happening again if we have soveriegn defauts. In the event of this default hyper inflation will result and debt will be deflated. I really do believe that assetts have the most value at the moment compared to fiat money.

Look at gold rises in the last couple of weeks , the markets know what is going to happen here and deflation of assets isnt it, not in my opinion anyway.

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High probability that there will be another dip into the hot water.....how can they QE again when they have implemented all these austerity measures cuts and taxes?... ;)

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High probability that there will be another dip into the hot water.....how can they QE again when they have implemented all these austerity measures cuts and taxes?... ;)

Oh, easily.

The crowd is going to chant for more money, and it shall be provided. All they had to do was a bit of austerity and perfect cover enabled.

Isn't democracy wonderful?

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Guest happy?

The reality of the awful position Brown has left us in is taking a long time to sink in. The FTSE has not really been hammered that much and is still above 5000 and the pound is sticking close to 1.50 on the $ which suggests the market enjoyed Ozzy's budget--but I cannot see why. There was nothing that suggested growth other than in house prices if the mild CGT hike is seen as a green light for more BTL and multiple homes. Our housing correction is still pending and that will be cataclysmic. The US are still deflating their housing bubble and it has already taken 40% plus off the giant Californian market with more to come now that government subsidies are being withdrawn.

We have a few more months in Fools Paradise IMO.

In the meantime the FTSE looks like it is heading toward the green. That will be 8 out of 9 days up--at a time when the world is in turmoil and all the fundamentals are looking bad in the short term and worse further out--especially if the US economy is double dipping. Add China to the mix and their bursting bubbles and I would be very short on stocks--in fact I am now only about 2% overall in stocks and nearly all the rest in PIMCO's Total Bond Fund (up 4.54% so far this year) and US$ with a smattering of sterling.

A double-dip is far more likely now - wee Georgie's made sure of that.

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Oh, easily.

The crowd is going to chant for more money, and it shall be provided. All they had to do was a bit of austerity and perfect cover enabled.

Isn't democracy wonderful?

Democracy works in strange ways.....why do I feel I am being manipulated?......we need to lend to business, the money has to come from somewhere. ;)

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Oh, easily.

The crowd is going to chant for more money, and it shall be provided. All they had to do was a bit of austerity and perfect cover enabled.

Isn't democracy wonderful?

Injin: "it always happens that way"

A.N poster: "but it doesn't though does it, here are 2 examples"

Injin: "it always happens that way"

A.N poster: "but it doesn't though does it, here are 2 examples"

Injin: "it always happens that way"

A.N poster: "but it doesn't though does it, here are 2 examples"

And on :lol:

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Injin: "it always happens that way"

A.N poster: "but it doesn't though does it, here are 2 examples"

Injin: "it always happens that way"

A.N poster: "but it doesn't though does it, here are 2 examples"

Injin: "it always happens that way"

A.N poster: "but it doesn't though does it, here are 2 examples"

And on :lol:

Never seen any counter example.

Never, ever.

For example - total number of deflations under a paper fiat money system when the opportunity to print is available = zero.

Total number of non watering down of a gold or silver metal standard when the ruling elite get into financial trouble also equals zero.

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Never seen any counter example.

Never, ever.

For example - total number of deflations under a paper fiat money system when the opportunity to print is available = zero.

Total number of non watering down of a gold or silver metal standard when the ruling elite get into financial trouble also equals zero.

Virgin territory. I like your thinking.

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For example - total number of deflations under a paper fiat money system when the opportunity to print is available = zero.

Can you give an example of when there was NO opportunity to print money though? Surely every fiat currency can be printed at any time of hardship?

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Can you give an example of when there was NO opportunity to print money though? Surely every fiat currency can be printed at any time of hardship?

Examples of being unable to print are

1) When the money owed is in someone elses currency - i.e. argentina owed dollars and couldn't print those

2) There is some political ****** up that stops approval - i.e Russian MP's being all over the country on holiday instead of in a place where they could vote to print, so the printers never ran and they defaulted

3) other wacky stuff like power outs, accidents would also fit I suppose, but not examples of that I know of.

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Examples of being unable to print are

3) other wacky stuff like power outs, accidents would also fit I suppose, but not examples of that I know of.

Good job our gas is being cut off then :lol::lol:

I do enjoy this "You say inflation I say deflation, lets call the whole thing stagflation" merry-go-round. I'm dizzy :D

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i think that the only thing that will cause a double dip is rising interest rates and that will not happen. It will only occur if we have infaltion which is on its way, so the effect of the interest rate rise will be offset by this.

The housing market dipped when lending was constrained, whilst it still still is to some extent this will only happening again if we have soveriegn defauts. In the event of this default hyper inflation will result and debt will be deflated. I really do believe that assetts have the most value at the moment compared to fiat money.

Look at gold rises in the last couple of weeks , the markets know what is going to happen here and deflation of assets isnt it, not in my opinion anyway.

A double dip is certain.

Our fiat currency requires economic growth so as to outpace the growth in debt arising from that currency. But we have nowhere for that growth to come from. The debt will grow and grow as a % of GDP until it overwhelms us. Game over.

Anything else is just pissing in the wind.

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Good job our gas is being cut off then :lol::lol:

I do enjoy this "You say inflation I say deflation, lets call the whole thing stagflation" merry-go-round. I'm dizzy :D

Well, here I merely said that there has never been a deflation voluntarily taken by any state in a position to print.

I could happily add that the western states could have chosen deflation several dozens times over the last 100 years and never have.

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Never seen any counter example.

Never, ever.

For example - total number of deflations under a paper fiat money system when the opportunity to print is available = zero.

Total number of non watering down of a gold or silver metal standard when the ruling elite get into financial trouble also equals zero.

Deflation is unrelated to fiats. A fiat is simply a declaration as to the value of something. Inflation is the reaction to a fiat--either affirming it or running contrary to it.

Deflation is the reverse of inflation. For example house prices (a micro feature) are currently inflated relative to affordability (a macro feature). If house prices fall relative to affordability you have micro-deflation in house prices. If you extend that example to a basket of items you have deflation in that basket of items.

The fiat is simply a recognition of the relative value of the item compared with other items in the marketplace. A fiat cannot stand alone--it is always relative to something else (see "The Myth of Intrinsic Value" by Hans Krappenschitz).

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Can you give an example of when there was NO opportunity to print money though? Surely every fiat currency can be printed at any time of hardship?

Globalisation has made the printing option less of an option. The international bond market (and the FX to a lesser extent) acts like a fiscal policeman disciplining nations that print with higher IR and Fitch write downs making credit tighter and deflationary trends more likely.

Injin was right when he said that it depends who you owe the money to. Argentina did not have the inflation option by printing because their debt was owed in US $.

Further QE in this country will punish IR and the government want to preserve HPI as it is 40% of what we do as a nation.

Edited by Realistbear

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Deflation is unrelated to fiats. A fiat is simply a declaration as to the value of something. Inflation is the reaction to a fiat--either affirming it or running contrary to it.

Fiat means "by decree, forced."

Inflation is an addition to the money supply. Deflation is a subtraction from the money supply.

Deflation is the reverse of inflation. For example house prices (a micro feature) are currently inflated relative to affordability (a macro feature). If house prices fall relative to affordability you have micro-deflation in house prices. If you extend that example to a basket of items you have deflation in that basket of items.

Inflation is an addition to the money supply. Deflation is a subtraction from the money supply.

The fiat is simply a recognition of the relative value of the item compared with other items in the marketplace. A fiat cannot stand alone--it is always relative to something else (see "The Myth of Intrinsic Value" by Hans Krappenschitz).

Inflation is an addition to the money supply. Deflation is a subtraction from the money supply.

Fiat has no value, that's why it's fiat in the first place.

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Guest theboltonfury

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/May-home-sales-dip-as-housing-apf-1632613040.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

May home sales dip as housing market struggles
Sales of previously occupied homes dip 2.2 percent despite help from federal tax credits
Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer, On Tuesday June 22, 2010, 3:38 pm EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The housing market may be on the verge of taking another plunge that could weaken the broader economic recovery.
Sales of previously occupied homes dipped in May, even though buyers could receive government tax credits. And nearly a third of sales in May were from foreclosures or other distressed properties. That means home prices could soon be heading down after stabilizing over the past year.
Last month's sales fell 2.2 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.66 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Analysts who had expected sales to rise expressed concern that the
real estate market could tumble once the benefit of the federal tax incentives is gone entirely, starting next month.

There is no doubt in my mind that we are going to follow the US down into a double dip. Everything in the bubble markets stands or falls on housing and the confidence levels that are tied to housing.

We haven't even had our first correction yet and we always follow the US. Our government is not going to be able to prop up the credit markets that back house prices and everything is pointing to retracting credit--the Eurozone is feeling it. We are going to go down the same road as everyone else. When the panic begins here it will be sever, painful and inevitable. It is the reason Ozzy kept CGT at low levels--FEAR that anything could trigger the herd to sell their inflated BTL portfolios and multiple home collections and our economy goes over the cliff.

Thankfully, my folks sold their home in North Carolina last week. Cleaned up on the xchange rate too.

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Globalisation has made the printing option less of an option. The international bond market (and the FX to a lesser extent) acts like a fiscal policeman disciplining nations that print with higher IR and Fitch write downs making credit tighter and deflationary trends more likely.

None of whihc matter if you decide to print, because you can just print a bit more to get around them.

Injin was right when he said that it depends who you owe the money to. Argentina did not have the inflation option by printing because their debt was owed in US $.

And UK debt is owed in sterling. There will be no germans arguing with greeks here.

Further QE in this country will punish IR and the government want to preserve HPI as it is 40% of what we do as a nation.

They can print more to keep IR down.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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