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Supply And Demand

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Comments invited on the following. It's just an observation for which I don't have a firm conclusion in mind at the moment. :)

Has anyone had a look via the various property sites to see how long the listed properties would take to all sell based on the rate of recent sales?

I've been looking at some local suburbs (note my location is Oz) and it seems that there is typically a 15 to 18 month supply of properties currently listed based on sales volume over the past 6 months. Eg. 80 properties listed now with 30 having sold in the past 6 months.

One suburb that I have been following closely has had 6 sales in the past 6 months. And about 20 properties are listed at the moment. I haven't got proper data of the number listed and withdrawn, but there's been perhaps 3 properties listed every month (rough guess) in recent times so quite clearly the most likely outcome if you list a property for sale today is that it either sits there unsold or you withdraw it. Actually selling is relatively unlikely.

I do recall that 2 years ago when I first became seriously interested in real estate there were only 4 properties listed in that same suburb and they were turning over relatively quickly. It is an understatement to say that the "waiting period" to sell has increased by a huge amount.

18 months... Realistically how long is anyone going to actually wait? I can't imagine for sale boards staying up for 5 years. Sooner or later either the property sells or the sellers withdraw from the market.

And in this whole city (population 200,000) there is, wait for it... ONE property listed as an upcoming auction for the next few weeks. So, auctions have all but died completely. And there's a whole newspaper page (in increasingly small type) of open homes for today alone.

Anyway, how does this compare to the UK and elsewhere? Similar?

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It's pretty much exactly as you describe here in Blackpool, though I can't say with regard to the auctions.

Near here: 3 properties on the market for 2 years now, about a dozen more for well over a year.

Prices have been cut over that time, people now on their 3rd or 4th EA or who have given up completely. Vitually nothing ever actually sells.

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  • 331 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
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