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"12.52 Government departmental budgets will be reduced by an additional £17 billion by 2013/14, Mr Osborne says. Except for health and international aid, this means a cut of 25 per cent across Whitehall. "

So what does that translate to in terms job jobs cuts?

Is the NHS ringfenced in real or nominal terms?

Answers on a postcard please to ....

VMR.

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"12.52 Government departmental budgets will be reduced by an additional £17 billion by 2013/14, Mr Osborne says. Except for health and international aid, this means a cut of 25 per cent across Whitehall. "

So what does that translate to in terms job jobs cuts?

Is the NHS ringfenced in real or nominal terms?

Answers on a postcard please to ....

VMR.

Seems strange to ringfence the NHS but to cut funding to the Medical Research Institutes that come up with the new treatments.

Keeps the costs high but reduces the capacity for future growth.

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NHS to continue receiving above inflation increases to their overall budget.

But because the demands from an ageing population are ballooning, it will feel like a real terms cut.

One day everyone will be hanging on the words of the Chancellor in future budgets as he announces how long we are allowed to live for or what our 'personal NHS lifetime allowance' is.

Hmmm...maybe. Although when you compare with changes to diet, reduction of stress or doing exercise I don't think paying money into the NHS via Whitehall is ever going to look like the most efficient or deterministic way of investing in your future health and longevity.

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Guest absolutezero

25 percent over 4 years with inflation running at about 5 percent....

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Guest absolutezero

Osbourne said he expects inflation to be 2% towards the end of the year ...

Is there an echo?

I seem to remember Mervyn King saying similar six months ago, last year, the year before, and possibly at some other time....

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Wil Hutton was talking to Huw Pugh earlier on and was going on about people now realising how dire the 25% cuts will be.... but then, typical Hutton, he did not explain what this meant.

I assume it means more than cutting back on paper clips.

The DVLA, as of Aug 2008, has 6,933 employees.... 25% of them to go over 4 years.. 1,733 to go? Wow!

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"12.52 Government departmental budgets will be reduced by an additional £17 billion by 2013/14, Mr Osborne says. Except for health and international aid, this means a cut of 25 per cent across Whitehall. "

:)

Is the NHS ringfenced in real or nominal terms?

The NHS - real terms. But I am not sure the whole department of health will be ring fenced.

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NHS to continue receiving above inflation increases to their overall budget.

But because the demands from an ageing population are ballooning, it will feel like a real terms cut.

This is the problem no one has the guts to face. We can't afford to give the current older generation pensions or health care funded from taxation. Equity release is going to be the only way the old get medical and social care.

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Osbourne said he expects inflation to be 2% towards the end of the year ...

He's got to hope so, because with freezes in PS pay if inflation stays at 5% there will be strikes across essential services. Inflation will only reduce to 2% if BoE hikes interest rates.

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The DVLA, as of Aug 2008, has 6,933 employees.... 25% of them to go over 4 years.. 1,733 to go? Wow!

Nope, cut back on cut flowers, water drinking machines, the new building (together with new artwork), the catering budget etc etc etc just 5% of jobs lost

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Nope, cut back on cut flowers, water drinking machines, the new building (together with new artwork), the catering budget etc etc etc just 5% of jobs lost

And/or get rid of the higher paid employees. You lose fewer workers while still cutting your budget by the same amount.

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I know we all like to moan about civil service not working hard, but 25% cuts is surely going to be extremely difficult.

I was amazed to discover the Thatcher government made no cuts to government spending just froze it. This caused unemployment still not forgotten.

There will be anarchy.

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How can there be anarchy; most if not all of the senior managers will remain in place and they are the really important ones, they run the public sector.

Anarchy from all those soon to be out of work.

Although tehey seem to think they are going to reduce unemployment over the next 4 years.

Don't see how, unless they are going to redefine unemployed.

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I know we all like to moan about civil service not working hard, but 25% cuts is surely going to be extremely difficult.

I was amazed to discover the Thatcher government made no cuts to government spending just froze it. This caused unemployment still not forgotten.

There will be anarchy.

In the Thatcher years most economies were still growing and N Sea oil and gas production was ramping up i.e. UK was about to be able to export substantial amounts of energy for almost a couple of decades. I would also suspect some of the increase in unemployment then was due to accelerating trend of manufacturing moving 'offshore' i.e. to China etc.

It's very different this time - we don't have energy exports from the N Sea to help us; on the contrary UK is headed for £50bn pa currency outflow to fund energy imports within a few years....and that's assuming energy prices don't rise from current levels. There are also systemic trade deficits in areas such as food, electronic goods, clothing and tourism. Against this background Gov't has little choice but to implement substantial deficit reduction measures - if they don't the markets will (as they have for Greece).

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Anarchy from all those soon to be out of work.

Although tehey seem to think they are going to reduce unemployment over the next 4 years.

Don't see how, unless they are going to redefine unemployed.

They did say they were going to introduce a new system of defining disability. Maybe another 2 million long term unemployed can be re-classified as disabled? That should keep unemployment within the predicted levels.

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This is the problem no one has the guts to face. We can't afford to give the current older generation pensions or health care funded from taxation. Equity release is going to be the only way the old get medical and social care.

So, however they do it, you pay! You'll either pay higher taxes or higher house prices (to fund equity release).

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This thread hasnt gone the way I expected. I thought the 25% Whitehall cut was by far the biggest announcement in the budget yet most people are talking about the relatively small shifts in taxation.

Is this due to the meaning of "Whitehall"? I took this to mean all departments other than NHS/Aid were going to get a 25% budget cut. So that includes eductation, welfare, pensions, transport, defence etc. Did I understand this wrong? Or are people assuming "Whitehall" is "other people, somewhere else but not me guv".

I took this to mean massive public sector losses over the next four years, in the hundreds of thousands with a following knock on in the private sector jobs that support them. Did I get this wrong?

VMR.

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Please excuse me talking to myself. Found this on http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20512.html

"At least 500,000 public sector jobs will go and possibly as many as 700,000,"

I think "Whitehall" was used as a vauge word rather than "mass public sector unemployment". At least that's what my BS filter comes up with.

VMR.

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I don't really understand how 25% cuts to most departments could be possible.

25% real cuts is what was stated so i guess that two [and more?] years of pay freezes combined with inflation will take care of maybe a quarter to a third of the 25%... and then I suppose some entire departments or areas will probbaly be axed rather than looking for nearly 20% cuts across the board...

Edited by the flying pig

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I don't really understand how 25% cuts to most departments could be possible.

25% real cuts is what was stated so i guess that two [and more?] years of pay freezes combined with inflation will take care of maybe a quarter to a third of the 25%... and then I suppose some entire departments or areas will probbaly be axed rather than looking for nearly 20% cuts across the board...

If the proportion of spending between wages and non-wages remains the same (likely?), this should simply translate into a 25% real reduction in wages. Since nominal wages are frozen, that could take are of around 7% leaving an 18% headcount reduction. I'm awaiting the union response on that one.

VMR.

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If the proportion of spending between wages and non-wages remains the same (likely?), this should simply translate into a 25% real reduction in wages. Since nominal wages are frozen, that could take are of around 7% leaving an 18% headcount reduction. I'm awaiting the union response on that one.

VMR.

Yes, the union response will be interesting - especially if someone points out to them that our current borrowing of £150 billion a year equates to the entire public sector wage bill (6 million people earning an average 25k equates nicely to almost exactly the amount we are borrowing this year.)

Even union leaders with severe cases of tunnel vision must see that borrowing the entire public sector wage bill each year is just not sustainable. We're already paying £40 billion in interest a year.

And, of course, a lot of people in the public sector are not in unions and they will be offered up as sacrificial lambs by the union bosses whose main interest is to keep enough of their members in work to pay their subs so they get their 100k + benefits + gold plated pension.

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  • 258 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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