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Is This The Rock N Roll Budget?

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I know there is often debate about the exact figure but 70% GDP coming from the public sector really is quite scary stuff. I imagine NI is low hanging fruit.

Just goes to show even at current 40% off levels (which I think is debatable in its self) our housing market just isn’t affordable or sustainable.

Anyone employed in the civil service in the last few years is in for a real eye opener. Jobs for life? I doubt it. Wake up and smell the Tesco value coffee.

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well that was a ball breaker

there were many facts and figures

most important if i heard it correctly

apart from nhs and foreign aid which are fenced

all other departments are facing a 25% budget cut

will our block grant face the same?

will the bean counters on the hill be suffering from a severe case of

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgS7oCOaazs

rock on!

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well that was a ball breaker

there were many facts and figures

most important if i heard it correctly

apart from nhs and foreign aid which are fenced

all other departments are facing a 25% budget cut

will our block grant face the same?

will the bean counters on the hill be suffering from a severe case of

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgS7oCOaazs

rock on!

a few unhappy folks here!

http://www.24dash.com/news/local_government/2010-06-22-Budget-Goverment-declaring-war-on-public-services

rock on!

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I know there is often debate about the exact figure but 70% GDP coming from the public sector really is quite scary stuff. I imagine NI is low hanging fruit.

Just goes to show even at current 40% off levels (which I think is debatable in its self) our housing market just isn’t affordable or sustainable.

Anyone employed in the civil service in the last few years is in for a real eye opener. Jobs for life? I doubt it. Wake up and smell the Tesco value coffee.

Looks like they are going to have to suffer a pay freeze [Public sector workers face a two-year pay freeze: BBC].

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Looks like they are going to have to suffer a pay freeze [Public sector workers face a two-year pay freeze: BBC].

25% slashed from most government departments budgets by 2015

and you dont expect job cuts!

rock on!

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25% slashed from most government departments budgets by 2015

and you dont expect job cuts!

rock on!

I suppose it's a start. Imho the public sector should be a maximum of 25% of the economy if it's to be sustainable.

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25% slashed from most government departments budgets by 2015

and you dont expect job cuts!

rock on!

25% over four or five years. NHS to be protected.

There has effectively been job cuts with the non recruitment policy. This will continue and it will hit the FTBers hardest as they are the ones that should have been getting these jobs. We are already experiencing this.

The immediate question out of this budget is-will the pay slips in July be much smaller than the June ones? Not very clear, but if there are cuts it will probably be less than was expected. Will there be tougher measures next year - no doubt.

The increase in CGT leaves it substantially lower than it was up to 2007. And it is only a tax on profits over £10k (not too many of them, I would think).

The unemployment rate in NI is lower than the UK, RoI and most of Europe. Will it rise that 1 or 2% to match these other countries? - It could well do. That means that perhaps 98% of people in work today will still be in work then. It is harsh, but it still leaves alot of people who will need to buy houses over the next few years.

I know we have a higher rate of 'economic inactive' people - but we had them during the boom, and if the benefit system remains the same we will still have them if another boom ever arrives.

Unless there is more in the small print I would fear the Tories have bottled it. Unless they really drive the 25% cuts its hard to see how they can turn this around. They don't appear to have touched the benefits system(which was the elephant in the room).

Will all this have a downward push on price? -Yes and despite alot of recent reports I believe this has already been taking place since the start of the year.

The Tories seem to have a different approach to spin.

They spin the doom so much that the expectations are so bad that the end product doesn't look as bad, as the people were expecting. In a way it's like the stock exchange where bad news, if managed properly can actually rise stock prices as the actual results or announcements are not as bad as expectations. Don't think that will happen here but a certain amount of correction has already been priced in. It will take a few months to see how this plays out.

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25% over four or five years. NHS to be protected.

There has effectively been job cuts with the non recruitment policy. This will continue and it will hit the FTBers hardest as they are the ones that should have been getting these jobs. We are already experiencing this.

The immediate question out of this budget is-will the pay slips in July be much smaller than the June ones? Not very clear, but if there are cuts it will probably be less than was expected. Will there be tougher measures next year - no doubt.

The increase in CGT leaves it substantially lower than it was up to 2007. And it is only a tax on profits over £10k (not too many of them, I would think).

The unemployment rate in NI is lower than the UK, RoI and most of Europe. Will it rise that 1 or 2% to match these other countries? - It could well do. That means that perhaps 98% of people in work today will still be in work then. It is harsh, but it still leaves alot of people who will need to buy houses over the next few years.

I know we have a higher rate of 'economic inactive' people - but we had them during the boom, and if the benefit system remains the same we will still have them if another boom ever arrives.

Unless there is more in the small print I would fear the Tories have bottled it. Unless they really drive the 25% cuts its hard to see how they can turn this around. They don't appear to have touched the benefits system(which was the elephant in the room).

Will all this have a downward push on price? -Yes and despite alot of recent reports I believe this has already been taking place since the start of the year.

The Tories seem to have a different approach to spin.

They spin the doom so much that the expectations are so bad that the end product doesn't look as bad, as the people were expecting. In a way it's like the stock exchange where bad news, if managed properly can actually rise stock prices as the actual results or announcements are not as bad as expectations. Don't think that will happen here but a certain amount of correction has already been priced in. It will take a few months to see how this plays out.

When they quote the figure of 70% gdp from the public sector I would imagine this includes all the other “services” the public sector supports. I wouldn’t be as worried about Mrs X who works in the dole office but would be rather worried about a company with exposure to a reduction in public sector expenditure. How many developers depend on big public works or building the new “civic” centres we witness popping up in ever council in the past few years? Oh those new office build to house the non-productive civil servants in the state of the art modern environment. I think here we have the perfect storm of events coming.

We have a reduction in the block grant which is inevitable. We have a reduction in public spending adversely affecting the companies that leech off the civil service. We have a pay reduction over two years for civil service “workers” (if you believe we will have inflation). We have an increase of 2.5% VAT that will affect everyone. Reduction in state benefits. And zombie banks down south taking what few profitable assets developers have. BOMAD is broke.

The residential property market is screwed. The commercial is destroyed. I’m interested VI what factors you think will keep properties at their current level?

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If I worked for a Consultant that worked mostly for a Storment department I would be certainly worried. Its been a long time coming and whilst this may be harsh, alot of these cutbacks are needed anyway. Coming up to March every year there is always a glut of work going out as departments struggle to spend their allocation. If they don't spend it they will loose it the following year. There is alot of fat in the system, in my opinion.

The Tories have stated they will fast tract projects that help the economy. By that I presume they mean roads etc that give great employment and help the infrastructure of the country. Question is-Will they do this in middle England or in that other Tory stronghold around Dungiven? Answers on a post card please.This will be the big test for our guys on the hill.

A pay freeze in a recession is not a pay cut. The private sector would love a pay freeze. Up until this point the public sector continued to receive their pay rises, whilst at the same time house prices fell by 40%. The ratio between household income to house prices has dropped dramatically as a result. Perhaps not as far as people would hope, but non-the-less it has been dramatic.

On the BBC TV today - A couple, both earning £20k each are actually better off as a result of this budget. That surprised me, but there you are.

In the public sector I don't believe there will be many people paid off. What they will do, and what they have been doing over the last 2 years is almost a total ban on recruitment. Don't get me wrong - this affects me even more as the mid career man already has his house. My First Time Buyer has and will have difficulty getting a job.

The unemployment rate, in my opinion wont get much worse, but what will happen, again IMO, is the proportion of unemployed in the 18 to 25 age group will grow, and that indeed worries me.

Excuse my ignorance, but what is BOMAD?

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Excuse my ignorance, but what is BOMAD?

Heh Belfast VI, your obviously not down with the kids, BOMAD = Bank of Mum and Dad. On the same subject, living in Norn Iron, did anyone else use to think that LOL at the end of texts meant something completly different from Laugh out Loud?

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If I worked for a Consultant that worked mostly for a Storment department I would be certainly worried. Its been a long time coming and whilst this may be harsh, alot of these cutbacks are needed anyway. Coming up to March every year there is always a glut of work going out as departments struggle to spend their allocation. If they don't spend it they will loose it the following year. There is alot of fat in the system, in my opinion.

The Tories have stated they will fast tract projects that help the economy. By that I presume they mean roads etc that give great employment and help the infrastructure of the country. Question is-Will they do this in middle England or in that other Tory stronghold around Dungiven? Answers on a post card please.This will be the big test for our guys on the hill.

A pay freeze in a recession is not a pay cut. The private sector would love a pay freeze. Up until this point the public sector continued to receive their pay rises, whilst at the same time house prices fell by 40%. The ratio between household income to house prices has dropped dramatically as a result. Perhaps not as far as people would hope, but non-the-less it has been dramatic.

On the BBC TV today - A couple, both earning £20k each are actually better off as a result of this budget. That surprised me, but there you are.

In the public sector I don't believe there will be many people paid off. What they will do, and what they have been doing over the last 2 years is almost a total ban on recruitment. Don't get me wrong - this affects me even more as the mid career man already has his house. My First Time Buyer has and will have difficulty getting a job.

The unemployment rate, in my opinion wont get much worse, but what will happen, again IMO, is the proportion of unemployed in the 18 to 25 age group will grow, and that indeed worries me.

Excuse my ignorance, but what is BOMAD?

i think you will find most civil servants will end up with a pay cut,

if they want to hold onto their gold plated pensions they will no doubt have to make a bigger personal contribution

or perhaps you can suggest to the commission set up to deal with it a better idea

yes i know there was a recruitment freeze

a bean counter on the hill told me that until recently

they were doing their budgets on the basis that their allocation of money would be frozen for 3 years

a 25% cut over 4 years is worse than their most apocalyptic nightmare

remember the iron maiden never actually cut public spending

she just froze it and let inflation do its worst

we are now in a ball game never before played here

with a son now trying to decide what uni and which course to aim for

i am equally as conerned as your good self about the next generations prospects

will there be a lot of

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwB9zg7Tbx8&feature=related

rock on!

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i think you will find most civil servants will end up with a pay cut,

if they want to hold onto their gold plated pensions they will no doubt have to make a bigger personal contribution

or perhaps you can suggest to the commission set up to deal with it a better idea

Salary sacrifice to tax efficient pension funds is not the same as a pay cut. Its voluntary and its what the rest of us do.

yes i know there was a recruitment freeze

a bean counter on the hill told me that until recently

they were doing their budgets on the basis that their allocation of money would be frozen for 3 years

a 25% cut over 4 years is worse than their most apocalyptic nightmare

remember the iron maiden never actually cut public spending

she just froze it and let inflation do its worst

we are now in a ball game never before played here

Incorrect, they cut public spending by almost the same [20%] prior to Maggiein the 70's.

Apart from terrible hairstyles we survived the 70's ok.

If my figures are correct this 25% reduction, if it was levelled across all the departments, would bring us back to the public spending level we seen, away back in 2005. However, as the cuts excludes the largest department (Health) the overall reduction will take away back to levels not seen since 2006 (500bn).

From memory 2006 was a real bad year for the economy an apocalyptic nightmare, if memory serves me right. What is an apocalyptic nightmare for any politician is going into an election associated in any way with cutbacks or job losses. Just watch our guys try to push this back to next spring.

*Edit, looking at this again, as the cuts are to be rolled out over 4 years the reduction this year will take us to the public spending levels of 2008/2009, the following year it will be down to 2008 levels and work its way back to 2006.

Everybody gets very excited about everything, some things are justifiably concerning some are not. I don't believe this budget is one of them and if they stick to their guns and do what they are saying they are going to do it should be enough. This has been expected, infact I would say it is less than was expected and its effects were actually felt as far back as six months ago and more particularly in the run up to the recent election when the coming cuts were openly discussed in the media.

A small thing - we had noticed a cooling since election time. There is no doubt our visits and sales rates have been down. However, since yesterday evening we have had 3 firm bookings. One swallow and all that, I know. But I am convinced these people were just waiting to see how bad the budget was going to be. Perhaps they made up their mind too early, I don't know. They had been 'kicking around' for a few weeks. May be unrelated, but I don't think so.

with a son now trying to decide what uni and which course to aim for

i am equally as conerned as your good self about the next generations prospects.

I entered Uni during the last boom (UK) there was to be jobs a plenty. Construction was the thing to be in (computers were barely invented). When I got out it was a different story. Had I been entering then I would have travelled a different path. You cant, at any time, make big life calls on current trends. I have no idea what field he is interested in. Food, energy and waste will be the big winners in the future. However when the world population starts to decline I would then advise to avoid construction.

By the time your son comes out (4 years) I am convinced we will be in a better place.

Edited by BelfastVI

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The Tories have stated they will fast tract projects that help the economy. By that I presume they mean roads etc that give great employment and help the infrastructure of the country.

Providing employment alone does not help the economy, the service or product needs to be needed and have a value to society otherwise it is just expensive benefits. It will help unemployment figures of course, but not the country. Roads can be valuable in the right place but I had thought that most road expansion schemes were on hold now.

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Providing employment alone does not help the economy, the service or product needs to be needed and have a value to society otherwise it is just expensive benefits. It will help unemployment figures of course, but not the country. Roads can be valuable in the right place but I had thought that most road expansion schemes were on hold now.

A good infrastructure network is extremely important to attract inward investment to a country. All manufacturing cannot be at the ports, it needs, ideally to be where we want the employment. Therefore they need to be able to transport easily to the ports and airports. Parts of NI are covered, other parts are not. The extension of the M2 and the Strabane link are to two glaring omissions when you compare to similar regions in the UK or the RoI for that matter. I am told the Strabane link is going ahead as it is jointly funded by the RoI and amazingly Brian Cowan repeated that this is going ahead only a few weeks ago. There have been studies that show investment of this kind gives back £1x 2or3 for every £1 invested. Not only in the knock on employment but later in the lifting of an area and the inward investment that the new network could attract.

However, I agree with you. I will believe it when I see it.

Its difficult to argue that a motorway or at least a duel carriageway is not needed to connect our two main cities, whilst most of Tyrone and Fermanagh have been left in the dark ages, God bless them, for 30 years with a substandard network compared to any other part of NI or the UK.

Have a value to a Society is a much overused phrase that can be used to justify money spent on art, sports and other things. All needed but in todays climate something that can bring jobs today and open the way for more jobs tomorrow must be viewed as value for Society

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Salary sacrifice to tax efficient pension funds is not the same as a pay cut. Its voluntary and its what the rest of us do.

Incorrect, they cut public spending by almost the same [20%] prior to Maggiein the 70's.

Apart from terrible hairstyles we survived the 70's ok.

If my figures are correct this 25% reduction, if it was levelled across all the departments, would bring us back to the public spending level we seen, away back in 2005. However, as the cuts excludes the largest department (Health) the overall reduction will take away back to levels not seen since 2006 (500bn).

From memory 2006 was a real bad year for the economy an apocalyptic nightmare, if memory serves me right. What is an apocalyptic nightmare for any politician is going into an election associated in any way with cutbacks or job losses. Just watch our guys try to push this back to next spring.

*Edit, looking at this again, as the cuts are to be rolled out over 4 years the reduction this year will take us to the public spending levels of 2008/2009, the following year it will be down to 2008 levels and work its way back to 2006.

Everybody gets very excited about everything, some things are justifiably concerning some are not. I don't believe this budget is one of them and if they stick to their guns and do what they are saying they are going to do it should be enough. This has been expected, infact I would say it is less than was expected and its effects were actually felt as far back as six months ago and more particularly in the run up to the recent election when the coming cuts were openly discussed in the media.

A small thing - we had noticed a cooling since election time. There is no doubt our visits and sales rates have been down. However, since yesterday evening we have had 3 firm bookings. One swallow and all that, I know. But I am convinced these people were just waiting to see how bad the budget was going to be. Perhaps they made up their mind too early, I don't know. They had been 'kicking around' for a few weeks. May be unrelated, but I don't think so.

I entered Uni during the last boom (UK) there was to be jobs a plenty. Construction was the thing to be in (computers were barely invented). When I got out it was a different story. Had I been entering then I would have travelled a different path. You cant, at any time, make big life calls on current trends. I have no idea what field he is interested in. Food, energy and waste will be the big winners in the future. However when the world population starts to decline I would then advise to avoid construction.

By the time your son comes out (4 years) I am convinced we will be in a better place.

like to provide some evidence that public spending was cut 20% in our wee province at any time in the 70s?

as for taking spending in 2014 back to the apocalytic year of 2006

you are discounting the insiduous effects of inflation

remember what it did for maggie

what will £100 buy in 2014?

80%

70%

60%

of what it did in 06

as for public sector pensions provision

an extra £ put in the pension

is one less that can be used to pay the morgage

anyways

rock on!

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Thousands of people could be thrown out of their homes after housing benefit was slashed by up to four-fifths in the emergency Budget.

Senior aides to David Cameron are bracing themselves for a major damage limitation exercise next year when families who can no longer afford to pay their rent start to be evicted.

The cuts which take effect from next April will cut the maximum housing benefit which can be claimed from £103,000 to £20,800 a year, or £400 a week.

Experts said it was likely thousands of people renting from private landlords would have to find alternative accommodation.

Department for Work and Pensions figures show that 5,170 people currently receive more than £400 a week in housing benefit to help pay rent to private landlords.

The Chartered Institute of Housing said families renting in smart areas of places like central London, Bristol and Cambridge would be hit hardest.

Howard Farrand, the institutes president, said: They [the changes] will impact on the ability of worse-off families to live in more affluent areas, possibly forcing people to leave communities where they have lived for years.

They could also see landlords avoiding letting their properties to people who are in receipt of housing benefit due to the risk of housing benefit being cut.

Campbell Robb, Shelters chief executive, added that nearly half of claimants are already making up a shortfall of almost £100 a month to meet their rent.

If this support is ripped out suddenly from under their feet it will push many households over the edge, triggering a spiral of debt, eviction and homelessness.

The current maximum of £103,000 a year can be paid to a two-parent family, living with six children and an elderly relative in a five bedroom home in central London.

George Osborne, the Chancellor, announced the cuts on Tuesday because the housing benefit bill had jumped from £14billion to £21billion in 10 years more than Britain spends on police and universities combined.

The Prime Ministers spokesman said today: Housing benefit has increased rapidly in recent years, and it is a benefit we have to get to grips with.

Can you believe that. The tax man was paying over £100k per year for certain family's

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I can't believe that. When they said they were cutting it to £400, I thought that was per month, not per week! Those poor unfortunate people will now only have up to £1733 per month to rent somethere!

Edited by damo

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like to provide some evidence that public spending was cut 20% in our wee province at any time in the 70s?

as for taking spending in 2014 back to the apocalytic year of 2006

you are discounting the insiduous effects of inflation

remember what it did for maggie

what will £100 buy in 2014?

80%

70%

60%

of what it did in 06

as for public sector pensions provision

an extra £ put in the pension

is one less that can be used to pay the mortgage

You didn't say NI when you implied cuts were never imposed before. In the 70's we were in the middle of a war here. I have no idea what was spent on what, but the defence & police budget would have swallowed up most. We are learning now that our infrastructure etc was neglected during those years so NI PLC probably suffered more than most during those years.

However the UK has experienced 20% cuts before.

You can discuss inflation all you like, I'm not getting into that debate. I am not discounting it but simply pointing out that a deferred or stepped reduction is better for us than having it all at once. Perhaps you disagree.

If we were faced with the full cuts today (which we wont)it would bring us back to 2006 levels. I could live with that. Whilst £1 buys 50% more of a house today than it did in 2006, everything else is pretty much the same. Infact public spending will probably get more road for its £'s now.

As for the public sector employees choice on what to do with their income - that's their choice. Its not a pay cut. If their pay is frozen as the private sectors falls you could also argue it is a rise in relative terms. i.e. you are happy with your pay until you see others doing better. The opposite is also true.

Yes they are getting their golden perks trimmed. If they choose to subsidise this with their own money, instead of the Tax payers, fair play to them. It would be interesting to see how many actually do.

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Can you believe that. The tax man was paying over £100k per year for certain family's

Shocking

Department for Work and Pensions figures show that 5,170 people currently receive more than £400 a week in housing benefit to help pay rent to private landlords.

Imho each and every civil servant who signed off these claims should be getting a P45 in the post.

Just because the rules allow it doesn't make it right as MP's found out with their expenses.

:ph34r:

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There has been many threads on just this subject on the main forum. Makes all your hard work feel worthwhile doesn't it.

I really hope they stick to their guns on all this. Parts of it will hurt me but in the round this is a good budget. How can any government justify paying £100k per year, per family. 5,000 of them were getting between £20k and £103k per an. Whats the average rent here £7k pa?

I can feel myself becoming a Tory. But don't tell anyone

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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