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Will The Emergency Budget Ensure A Double Dip?

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If unsustainable govt spending is cut tomorrow will we have a double dip recession once the Q4 2010 GDP figures are released? Or will it happen later than Q4 2010?

Or will the private sector recover enough to ensure the dreaded double dip is avoided?

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If unsustainable govt spending is cut tomorrow will we have a double dip recession once the Q4 2010 GDP figures are released? Or will it happen later than Q4 2010?

Or will the private sector recover enough to ensure the dreaded double dip is avoided?

Most unlikely.

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CGT increases almost guarantee a collapse of the FTSE. Once the government has bled dry those of means, and forced those of greater means to flee, the result will be Armageddon.

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CGT increases almost guarantee a collapse of the FTSE. Once the government has bled dry those of means, and forced those of greater means to flee, the result will be Armageddon.

CGNAO, where are you?

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John Redwood has criticised Osbourne for cutting without a strategy for growth.

The Forgemasters mistake shows that Libcon have set us on a road to job destruction.

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If unsustainable govt spending is cut tomorrow will we have a double dip recession once the Q4 2010 GDP figures are released? Or will it happen later than Q4 2010?

Or will the private sector recover enough to ensure the dreaded double dip is avoided?

Mathematically there will have to be a double dip.

GDP = C + I + G + X - Z

Everything people spend (consumption), plus everything companies spend (investment), plus everything the government spends, plus everything other countries spend on our things (exports) less everything we buy from abroad (imports)

If George Osbourne cuts G then GDP reduces. Add in the reduction in C and I due to the resulting unemployment and tax rises and a double dip seems a certainty, though it may take longer than Q4.

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Mathematically there will have to be a double dip.

GDP = C + I + G + X - Z

Everything people spend (consumption), plus everything companies spend (investment), plus everything the government spends, plus everything other countries spend on our things (exports) less everything we buy from abroad (imports)

If George Osbourne cuts G then GDP reduces. Add in the reduction in C and I due to the resulting unemployment and tax rises and a double dip seems a certainty, though it may take longer than Q4.

[/quote

That's that then. Thank you for cheering me up. :huh::huh:

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'Will The Emergency Budget Ensure A Double Dip?'

God i hope so. we really, and i mean REALLY need a recession. we need to have every one whose going to go bank rupt to do so asap so we can clear out all the bad debt and get back to stability.

Edited by anon

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Mathematically there will have to be a double dip.

GDP = C + I + G + X - Z

Everything people spend (consumption), plus everything companies spend (investment), plus everything the government spends, plus everything other countries spend on our things (exports) less everything we buy from abroad (imports)

If George Osbourne cuts G then GDP reduces. Add in the reduction in C and I due to the resulting unemployment and tax rises and a double dip seems a certainty, though it may take longer than Q4.

By George, you're right.

People must have realised by now that Brown has left us 'between a rock and a hard place'. If we cut minimum £60billion, to have enough effect, followed by another 30-40bn next year, we will get back to recession. If we don't, then the markets will turn on us even more than they will anyway. The cost of borrowing will 'go greece' and we will be unable to service the debt. That would be worse and the recession would be worse. Even so, we probably cannot actually cut the amount required to get the deficit under control - there will be strikes and unrest.

I take no pleasure in saying that I knew Browns spending would end us here many years ago and tried to tell people. But they scoffed a great deal, pointing to the stable PROSPEROUS economy Brown had brought about while increasing public services. EG Increasing spending by £40bn AT A STROKE WAS BALMY.

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By George, you're right.

People must have realised by now that Brown has left us 'between a rock and a hard place'. If we cut minimum £60billion, to have enough effect, followed by another 30-40bn next year, we will get back to recession. If we don't, then the markets will turn on us even more than they will anyway. The cost of borrowing will 'go greece' and we will be unable to service the debt. That would be worse and the recession would be worse. Even so, we probably cannot actually cut the amount required to get the deficit under control - there will be strikes and unrest.

I take no pleasure in saying that I knew Browns spending would end us here many years ago and tried to tell people. But they scoffed a great deal, pointing to the stable PROSPEROUS economy Brown had brought about while increasing public services. EG Increasing spending by £40bn AT A STROKE WAS BALMY.

thanks for joining in 2010. nostradamus (sp.) you are not.

i was here in 2004, forgot my login and rejoined when the shtf, don't go blagging about being a messiah though.

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the result will be Armageddon.

Nothing like a bit of scaremongering to help get your side of the argument across.

Old tricks are the best tricks hey BB?

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Meredith Whitney sees definite douple dip in US housing, which I think Calculated Risk agrees with. She refuses to say whether it's a douple dip on GDP - but hints strong possibility. Second half of year will be weak.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meredith-whitney-no-doubt-we-have-entered-double-dip-housing

Is she correct? Living here in the US I would say, without doubt, sh!t yea.

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If unsustainable govt spending is cut tomorrow will we have a double dip recession once the Q4 2010 GDP figures are released? Or will it happen later than Q4 2010?

Or will the private sector recover enough to ensure the dreaded double dip is avoided?

It feels like the first recession was not long enough to give the economy the purge it needed. If there is a double-dip then I would see it more like a resumption of the recession after an interruption. Altough that interruption was quite expensive for us tax-payers...

And will the private sector save us? I did read in the Sunday Times that commercial property was on the up again, so maybe property is the way to revitalise our economy? ;)

QB

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John Redwood has criticised Osbourne for cutting without a strategy for growth.

The Forgemasters mistake shows that Libcon have set us on a road to job destruction.

Other than doing the banks job of lending to a steel factory without orders (I'm afraid even the dragons would be out on that one!) - what suggestions has ANYONE given for getting jobs?

We can't bribe and pay for the jobs to come here - the country has to be able to get jobs here some other way.

If we do have to bribe etc (to the extent of paying huge subsidies for the factory and for the end product to sell) then we may as well pay people to be on the dole.

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CGT increases almost guarantee a collapse of the FTSE. Once the government has bled dry those of means, and forced those of greater means to flee, the result will be Armageddon.

Where exactly will they flee to?

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If unsustainable govt spending is cut tomorrow will we have a double dip recession once the Q4 2010 GDP figures are released? Or will it happen later than Q4 2010?

Or will the private sector recover enough to ensure the dreaded double dip is avoided?

Of course we will have a double dip. Isn;t everyone having one? Why should we be any different when we are in the wrost position?

BTW - double dip is merely a euphemism for Depression. In 1930 they did not know yet that they were in The Great Depression.

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If unsustainable govt spending is cut tomorrow will we have a double dip recession once the Q4 2010 GDP figures are released? Or will it happen later than Q4 2010?

Or will the private sector recover enough to ensure the dreaded double dip is avoided?

Of course it will.

It still has to be done,even if it's several years too late.

Next question?

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Mathematically there will have to be a double dip.

GDP = C + I + G + X - Z

Everything people spend (consumption), plus everything companies spend (investment), plus everything the government spends, plus everything other countries spend on our things (exports) less everything we buy from abroad (imports)

If George Osbourne cuts G then GDP reduces. Add in the reduction in C and I due to the resulting unemployment and tax rises and a double dip seems a certainty, though it may take longer than Q4.

That assumes that "c" will not be robust and that tax rises ( VAT) won't effectively push up the GDP figure and equally that "I" won't grow whereas there are some who say that the Blair and Brown fat has already been cut from the private sector and moving forward is almost the only thing it can now do...... despite your maths cuts in G do not necessarilly mean a double dip... nice formula though it is.

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  • 152 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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