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Realistbear

E C R I : Gold Is Now Anxiety Driven

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http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/gold's-rise-is-%22a-sign-of-anxiety%22-not-inflation-ecri's-achuthan-says-506428.html;_ylt=AiEkrR.I9q8V6SZqjOwvk1i7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2NThqNWg0BHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZ29sZHNyaXNlYXNp?tickers=GLD,GDX,TIP,UUP,^GSPC,^DJI,EEM&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Gold's Rise Is "a Sign of Anxiety," Not Inflation, ECRI's Achuthan Says
Posted Jun 21, 2010 09:04am EDT by Aaron Task
But What About Gold?
In sum, Achuthan believes last week's report on CPI inflation being at a 44-year low is a better indicator than gold hitting record highs.
Gold is a good indicator of inflation, but not a great one, he says, explaining why gold is not part of ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge (FIG), which hit a 5-month low in May.
"While [gold] will react to moves inflation, it reacts to a lot of other stuff too...[and] it gives you so many false signals," he says. "It's [also] a sign of anxiety."
With persistently high unemployment, the BP oil spill, a lack of faith in institutions (corporate and government), as well as "tectonic shifts" in the global economy, there's a lot to nervous about, Achuthan says. "So you pull in and get defensive and I think gold is a key part of that."

Basically, its sentiment driven in today's market. The question to be asked is: does this make gold more vulnerable to a sudden sell-off than other commodities that are more driven by fundemanmtals or even the technicals. :ph34r:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/gold's-rise-is-%22a-sign-of-anxiety%22-not-inflation-ecri's-achuthan-says-506428.html;_ylt=AiEkrR.I9q8V6SZqjOwvk1i7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2NThqNWg0BHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZ29sZHNyaXNlYXNp?tickers=GLD,GDX,TIP,UUP,^GSPC,^DJI,EEM&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Gold's Rise Is "a Sign of Anxiety," Not Inflation, ECRI's Achuthan Says
Posted Jun 21, 2010 09:04am EDT by Aaron Task
But What About Gold?
In sum, Achuthan believes last week's report on CPI inflation being at a 44-year low is a better indicator than gold hitting record highs.
Gold is a good indicator of inflation, but not a great one, he says, explaining why gold is not part of ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge (FIG), which hit a 5-month low in May.
"While [gold] will react to moves inflation, it reacts to a lot of other stuff too...[and] it gives you so many false signals," he says. "It's [also] a sign of anxiety."
With persistently high unemployment, the BP oil spill, a lack of faith in institutions (corporate and government), as well as "tectonic shifts" in the global economy, there's a lot to nervous about, Achuthan says. "So you pull in and get defensive and I think gold is a key part of that."

Basically, its sentiment driven in today's market. The question to be asked is: does this make gold more vulnerable to a sudden sell-off than other commodities that are more driven by fundemanmtals or even the technicals. :ph34r:

It's a sign of anxiety that the central banks are going to print.... a lot. Who knows how long it will take but they will do it.

Although I have the nice feeling that goes with your investments doing extremely well I am still hoping for one last liquidity crisis so that everything crashes including gold mining shares and I can accumulate.

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It's a sign of anxiety that the central banks are going to print.... a lot. Who knows how long it will take but they will do it.

Although I have the nice feeling that goes with your investments doing extremely well I am still hoping for one last liquidity crisis so that everything crashes including gold mining shares and I can accumulate.

I will accumulate a nice house after everything else tanks. Been waiting about 5 years now!

"Not every sell off is a buying opportunity because there might be a lot more selling left in the pipeline."

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Anxiety driven?

So the central banks buying a sh*t load of gold isn't a driver? Russia purchased 31 tonnes of gold in May alone. Saudi Arabia recently announced a doubling of gold holdings and China, as ever, continues to buy on the quiet.

The fact of the matter is that what is occurring in Greece, Spain et al is a mere prelude to the kind of financial tsunami that will hit the United States. Perhaps this is why Russia and China are hastening their Central Bank diversification into gold...

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Anxiety driven?

So the central banks buying a sh*t load of gold isn't a driver? Russia purchased 31 tonnes of gold in May alone. Saudi Arabia recently announced a doubling of gold holdings and China, as ever, continues to buy on the quiet.

The fact of the matter is that what is occurring in Greece, Spain et al is a mere prelude to the kind of financial tsunami that will hit the United States. Perhaps this is why Russia and China are hastening their Central Bank diversification into gold...

All of that buying and gold is still not moving close its 1980 high of $2,347.58 (IA).

IMO we are headed into a deflationary blackhole which will, as Buffett predicted, end in a major sell off in commodities and anything that has seen rapid price increases since the bubble began forming.

Gold is the only major thing selling off today (other than the pound vs. the $) and it may be due to the anxiety levels being felt i the market.

I am starting to feel more bearish toward gold.

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All of that buying and gold is still not moving close its 1980 high of $2,347.58 (IA).

IMO we are headed into a deflationary blackhole which will, as Buffett predicted, end in a major sell off in commodities and anything that has seen rapid price increases since the bubble began forming.

Gold is the only major thing selling off today (other than the pound vs. the $) and it may be due to the anxiety levels being felt i the market.

I am starting to feel more bearish toward gold.

And all your talk of deflation hasn't put a dollar back at it's high of being an actual dollar of gold (IA).

Instead a dollar is worth about 98% less than when it started. 2% to go before it's worthless.

Edited by Injin

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All of that buying and gold is still not moving close its 1980 high of $2,347.58 (IA).

IMO we are headed into a deflationary blackhole which will, as Buffett predicted, end in a major sell off in commodities and anything that has seen rapid price increases since the bubble began forming.

Gold is the only major thing selling off today (other than the pound vs. the $) and it may be due to the anxiety levels being felt i the market.

I am starting to feel more bearish toward gold.

You're starting to feel more bearish about gold!?

Feck - $1500 here we come

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And all your talk of deflation hasn't put a dollar back at it's high of being an actual dollar of gold (IA).

Instead a dollar is worth about 98% less than when it started. 2% to go before it's worthless.

I just bought a Canon G11 on Amazon USA for $449.

If I had bought the same camera in the UK it would have cost me 389 pounds.

And not only that, a German made BMW costs less in the US than it does here or in most of the EU.

What does that tell you about purchasing power?

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Im glad to see its not just me that feels that Realistbear has never made a correct prediction so far. :)

Untrue.

RB is often spot on with the dollar, and a contra-indicator for gold.

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I had a feeling this thread would cause some angst among the goldbugs.

Up day for everything(almost) except gold. If every central government is stocking up why the stall and fall?

06/21/2010

13:30 1238.90 -17.60 -1.40%

Nothing is a one way bet forever and gold has had a few good years from $285 to where it is today. Time to take bumper profits and leave the suckers to hold on forever and miss the top?

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13:30 1238.90 -17.60 -1.40%

MY GOD!!!!! DOWN 1.4%!?!?! QUICK! SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!

:lol::lol::lol::lol::blink::blink:

Edited by Errol

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MY GOD!!!!! DOWN 1.4%!?!?! QUICK! SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!

:lol::lol::lol::lol::blink::blink:

You never know if it may (may) be the beginning of the big sell off. The last collapse started like this. A few percent here and there, $17 down one day, $14 the next and then WHAM $160 down in a single session followed by several days of rout. Many jumped in on the dips but found their fingers cut off by the falling knife.

Its picking the right time to sell before the rout begins is the real skill.

As Warren once said: "Hanging on for that extra 5% has cost many a great deal of money."

Anxiety is running high like the article said and this may lead to panic.

1237.30 -20.20 -1.61%

Edited by Realistbear

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You never know if it may (may) be the beginning of the big sell off. The last collapse started like this. A few percent here and there, $17 down one day, $14 the next and then WHAM $160 down in a single session followed by several days of rout. Many jumped in on the dips but found their fingers cut off by the falling knife.

Its picking the right time to sell before the rout begins is the real skill.

As Warren once said: "Hanging on for that extra 5% has cost many a great deal of money."

Anxiety is running high like the article said and this may lead to panic.

1237.30 -20.20 -1.61%

See i'm not being funny RB but this whole thread is an attempt to create the anxiety that you claim is already there.

What the ****** for?

If you haven't got any gold and can't be bothered about it, why talk about it all the time?

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So the House of Saud and India are feeling anxious? Is anxious foreign speak for hedge?

Sold 5% today after 2.5 years stroking it. As a wiseman said, 'you never got poor taking a profit'. :)

Portfolio

Gold 9% - Bought Xmas 07

Silver 15% - Bought Xmas 08 and 09

Sterling 50% - Getting hammered

Swissies 10% - Bought at 2.19

Canadian $ 15% Bought at 1.7

Short S&P 1128.3 [Actually I have been short since 1042 ] :o

Long BP at 350.5

Put all that in your 3ltr bucket and smoke it!

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See i'm not being funny RB but this whole thread is an attempt to create the anxiety that you claim is already there.

What the ****** for?

If you haven't got any gold and can't be bothered about it, why talk about it all the time?

I have a full Sov. Mostly hold silver in the form of ancient silver $'s and 1964 Quarters and Kennedys.

But why? To warn fellow HPCers that gold is dangerous. It is also related to FOREX bets which I am heavily into. Although I have noticed the disconnect recently as gold drifts its own way without regard to the fundamentals or the technicals. It moves up when it should be going down and vice versa. This is what the OP is getting at--its now anxiety driven and that may be the indicator that it has at last found its top.

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I have a full Sov. Mostly hold silver in the form of ancient silver $'s and 1964 Quarters and Kennedys.

But why? To warn fellow HPCers that gold is dangerous. It is also related to FOREX bets which I am heavily into. Although I have noticed the disconnect recently as gold drifts its own way without regard to the fundamentals or the technicals. It moves up when it should be going down and vice versa. This is what the OP is getting at--its now anxiety driven and that may be the indicator that it has at last found its top.

Do any of the goldbugs EVER listen to you?

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Do any of the goldbugs EVER listen to you?

Secretly perhaps. But that is not the point of this Forum is it?

My main interest is house prices and it all ties in together. When the gold crash comes it will probably coincide with house prices as the two have been in tandem for some years now. And, IIRC, the great gold crash of 1981 followed the HPC of that era.

1236.00 -21.50 -1.71%

Saudi's unloading 5% or the herd getting edgy? If it is anxiety driven anything could be causing the slight drop and that is the problem. Gold is now in the reals of the unpredictable and the erratic behaviour of the last few weeks may be an indicator of some kind that the technicals have not yet worked out. The fundamentals are becoming increasingly deflationist which points to less interest in gold as a hedge. Yet Gold started to rise sharply in the face of those reports.

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Although I own a small amount of gold, about £5500. I am not overly bothered what it does, am already quite pleased with the £1500 tax free it has gone up this last yearish.

My point was really, that every prediction you make RB tends to be wrong. Anyone basing a decision on your quite convincing and articulate posts has to be very careful. You make good points, your logic appears sound, however it never happens.

I mean look at your sig.

1)The HPC will gather pace by early Spring sending house prices down by at least another 15-20% with further joy to come in 2011 as prices continue to fall

Wrong. Sadly.

2) The year will be characterised by the collapse and fall of BTL as negative equity and rising IR forces the majority out.

Wrong so far.

3) 2. Brown will be gone long before the June deadline with Cameron in with a majority of around 44 seats.[

Wrong.

4) Gold will crash as deflation spreads accross the globe

Wrong so far.

I actually cant think of anything you predicted that came true. I am not saying I have done any better, and have probably spent in the region of £72k waiting for house prices to come down. That would be well over a third of a way through a mortgage.

Finding HPC has cost me a lot of money, if I had just bought in 2002 say. If the average house prices drops £50k next year, then I might break even. I dont think it will though.

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Although I own a small amount of gold, about £5500. I am not overly bothered what it does, am already quite pleased with the £1500 tax free it has gone up this last yearish.

My point was really, that every prediction you make RB tends to be wrong. Anyone basing a decision on your quite convincing and articulate posts has to be very careful. You make good points, your logic appears sound, however it never happens.

I mean look at your sig.

1)The HPC will gather pace by early Spring sending house prices down by at least another 15-20% with further joy to come in 2011 as prices continue to fall

Wrong. Sadly.

2) The year will be characterised by the collapse and fall of BTL as negative equity and rising IR forces the majority out.

Wrong so far.

3) 2. Brown will be gone long before the June deadline with Cameron in with a majority of around 44 seats.[

Wrong.

4) Gold will crash as deflation spreads accross the globe

Wrong so far.

I actually cant think of anything you predicted that came true. I am not saying I have done any better, and have probably spent in the region of £72k waiting for house prices to come down. That would be well over a third of a way through a mortgage.

Finding HPC has cost me a lot of money, if I had just bought in 2002 say. If the average house prices drops £50k next year, then I might break even. I dont think it will though.

Check the FOREX. Pound now below 1.50 and the Euro is having a "bad" year. I have a massive "short" on sterling and am probably going to take profits very soon--finger is near the sell button. The rest of the year will see our long awaited HPC gain real traction but we will have a few months to wait until the end of the year comes.

DC did get his majority but not quite in the exact way I predicted. he had to take on the Libs to do it whereas I thought he would have won outright.

Gold is becoming anxiety driven IMO. The wobbles before the panic. Lets see if it has crashed by crimbo of this year. If it doesn't crash I am down one forecast.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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