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The Masked Tulip

Welsh Housing Fears Over Cuts

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http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2010/06/21/welsh-housing-fears-over-cuts-91466-26690919/

HOUSE prices in Wales could fall faster than anywhere in the UK as austerity measures start to bite, experts predicted yesterday.

Releasing its latest house price figures today, property website Rightmove says a combination of tax rises, public spending cuts and properties flooding on to the market following the abolition of Home Information Packs means asking prices will fall in the coming months, putting an end to any recovery in the housing market.

But the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) in Wales says the drop in prices here is likely to be greater than elsewhere in the UK because of the Welsh economy’s dependence on public-sector jobs.

Government spending in Wales accounts for 70% of Welsh Gross Domestic Product.

According to today’s figures, house asking prices rose across the UK by just 0.3% from May to June, compared to a rise of 2.6% in April.

But in Wales, prices fell by almost 1% in June. The average asking price in Wales now stands at £168,951.

Asking prices across the UK are already falling in real terms.

Mr Lawson said: “We have to remember that Wales starts from a very low base – our GDP is traditionally very low compared to the rest of the UK.

“We’re usually lumped in there with the north-east of England and Northern Ireland. So when you’re coming from a very low base anyway and you have more of a reliance on the public sector, and there are public sector cuts, obviously that means we’ll be hit harder.”

Asking prices in Wales have risen just 0.4% over the past year, according to Rightmove, significantly below RPI.

Nigel Jones, director of South and West Wales estate agents John Francis, said if the confidence of public-sector workers was knocked by the emergency Budget, it could impact on the market.

But he said in spite of the dominance of the public sector in Wales, the housing market here was strong enough to absorb local government job losses and pay freezes.

He said: “If there’s a high level of redundancies, that will potentially affect property prices, but we don’t know what’s coming out on Tuesday yet.

“We’re not expecting prices to drop, but we’re expecting them to remain fairly flat for the rest of the year.”

Today’s figures also show a 22% jump in the number of people putting their home up for sale, following the abolition of HIPS. Rightmove said there was now increased competition among sellers and a slowdown in the number of potential buyers which contributed to slowing house prices.

Economist Patrick Minford said while the Budget may cause a temporary dip in the housing market, prices in the long term will continue to grow.

Prof Minford, of Cardiff University, said: “Our forecast for the housing market is that over the next 12 months or so it will slowly improve.

“Prices will rise by about 3-4%, but at the moment there’s quite a lot of uncertainty around because of the emergency Budget and the new regulations they’re bringing in for the banking sector.

“That’s creating a pause in the market, but I don’t think it’s going to drop hugely or anything like that.”

FUD - fear, uncertainty and doubt.

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going to happen MT, Wales could be the first places for the big falls,

I am not sure - the Govt is basically placing the onus for cuts on the Welsh Assembly and the Assembly is in denial seemingly refusing to fure anyone or cut anything.

It may be that Wales suffers 2 years after England but then suffers far, far more as every cut is concentrated in a short timescale.

Although, the DVLA is London controlled and not Cardiff. Land Reg is the same I guess. Companies House and Patent Offices ditto.

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I am not sure - the Govt is basically placing the onus for cuts on the Welsh Assembly and the Assembly is in denial seemingly refusing to fure anyone or cut anything.

It may be that Wales suffers 2 years after England but then suffers far, far more as every cut is concentrated in a short timescale.

Wales is to England as Greece is to Germany ?

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I am not sure - the Govt is basically placing the onus for cuts on the Welsh Assembly and the Assembly is in denial seemingly refusing to fure anyone or cut anything.

It may be that Wales suffers 2 years after England but then suffers far, far more as every cut is concentrated in a short timescale.

Although, the DVLA is London controlled and not Cardiff. Land Reg is the same I guess. Companies House and Patent Offices ditto.

The underlying budgets are all controlled from London though, aren't they?

I wonder what will happen if the Assembly runs out of money (thankfully it has no tax-raising powers so far). A local authority in the same position wouldn't be allowed to go bust, but Central government would swoop in and take things over rather than just bailing it out with more grants. Imagine that happening to all the AMs! :)

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The underlying budgets are all controlled from London though, aren't they?

I wonder what will happen if the Assembly runs out of money (thankfully it has no tax-raising powers so far). A local authority in the same position wouldn't be allowed to go bust, but Central government would swoop in and take things over rather than just bailing it out with more grants. Imagine that happening to all the AMs! :)

When Cameron visited the Assembly a few weeks back and basically told them that there would be less money... but they could decide whether to cut this year or double cuts next year... the first thought in my head was that he was giving them enough rope...

So far, they seem intent on not cutting anything this year so that will mean next year things will seem all the more harsher when the cuts are forced on them... which might create a crisis in Wales for an Assembly the Tories have never wanted...

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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I have one or two cousins, uncles and the like from Wales - Bridgend environs to be more precise. One thing that stands out is the faith they have that something - be it nature or government or some other amorphous body - will provide. During the war they didn't go without - yeah they had food rationing, but they also knew butchers, farmers, grocers who had enough on the shelves that they had fresh eggs, bacon, bread vegetables etc all the way thru the war. The indutrial revolution was a rich time for a country so replete with resources. Maybe being laid back about nature's bounties (if that can include taxpayers' money too) is because historically they have never had to worry?

Edited by Si1

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If the civil service needs to cut costs it would make sense to relocate more of their functions out of London wouldn't it?

Look at the bbc move north for a classic example of "you've got to be joking, no way, just pretend to move some stuff up there but only send that mean camera man we dn't like"

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When Cameron visited the Assembly a few weeks back and basically told them that there would be less money... but they could decide whether to cut this year or double cuts next year... the first thought in my head was that he was giving them enough rope...

So far, they seem intent on not cutting anything this year so that will mean next year things will seem all the more harsher when the cuts are forced on them... which might create a crisis in Wales for an Assembly the Tories have never wanted...

Maybe they're gambling on a crisis in Westminster before then (Liberal back benchers are already making rebellious noises) enabling the Nationalists to put their original "hung parliament" plan into action; basically a pork-barrel vote-selling exercise:

The SNP and Plaid yesterday signed an agreement to join forces in any talks in an effort to secure action on their four priority areas in return for their support on other measures.

Plaid’s main demand is for a more generous funding agreement for Wales.

The Plaid leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, said a strong “Celtic bloc” of MPs “will give us a once in a generation opportunity to secure the best possible deal” for the people of the two nations.

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Wales is to England as Greece is to Germany ?

If they shared a currency while having nothing else in common (politics, language, culture, labour mobility) and if Wales had the power to issue sovereign debt that was widely bought by English banks, then yes, that would be the case :)

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"But the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) in Wales says the drop in prices here is likely to be greater than elsewhere in the UK because of the Welsh economy’s dependence on public-sector jobs."

Oh Goody.

Is there somewhere nice that I can retire to for 50K?

tim

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Oh Goody.

Is there somewhere nice that I can retire to for 50K?

tim

Did you see the report that those who work for the Welsh (Parliament) 'retire' at 50!

Before their police officers!

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I wonder what will happen if the Assembly runs out of money (thankfully it has no tax-raising powers so far). A local authority in the same position wouldn't be allowed to go bust, but Central government would swoop in and take things over rather than just bailing it out with more grants. Imagine that happening to all the AMs! :)

The assembly to run out of money? What.....like the Westminster parliament. Unfortunately, they do have tax-raising powers. Incidentally, TMT, the Tories are now in favour of the Assembly and for it to even gain additional powers with the exception of one or two MP's of course but that could also be said of Labour. I do agree that house prices will fall in Wales and drastically so......but not as much as the collapse in London and and the SE.

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Did you see the report that those who work for the Welsh (Parliament) 'retire' at 50!

Before their police officers!

If that's the case it's outrageous. I don't suppose you could provide a link?

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If that's the case it's outrageous. I don't suppose you could provide a link?

Someone posted it and it was among the blurb in the last few days on the main forum - so you will have to go thru the last few days pages.

I just have a good memory for these items.

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During the war they didn't go without - yeah they had food rationing, but they also knew butchers, farmers, grocers who had enough on the shelves that they had fresh eggs, bacon, bread vegetables etc all the way thru the war. The indutrial revolution was a rich time for a country so replete with resources. Maybe being laid back about nature's bounties (if that can include taxpayers' money too) is because historically they have never had to worry?

Historically never had to worry? Are you having a laugh? Tell me you're being ironic! Conquered by the English, raped of our mineral wealth, rich English landowners feasting on the back of solid hard graft by downtrodden Welsh workers. Is it any wonder that Wales has become so dependent on Government sponsorship?

A constant drain of Welsh talent into the English metropolises and what do we get in return? Rehoused English social problem families and English pensioners! Thank you very fecking much!

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;)

Historically never had to worry? Are you having a laugh? Tell me you're being ironic! Conquered by the English, raped of our mineral wealth, rich English landowners feasting on the back of solid hard graft by downtrodden Welsh workers. Is it any wonder that Wales has become so dependent on Government sponsorship?

A constant drain of Welsh talent into the English metropolises and what do we get in return? Rehoused English social problem families and English pensioners! Thank you very fecking much!

At least they were kind enough to give us own assembly ..... :lol: joke that it is .. nobody wants it, scrap it and the ministers and give the money saved back to the private small businesses that are the growth industries of the future. They are the future of Wales - thhe days of big back handers to foreign companies to set up only to leave when the subsidy dries up (e,g. LG) should never return.

Wales has plenty of talent that is happy to remain indigenous .. it just needs the incentive, the opportunity and less red tape. They need business advisers and mentors who actually have run successful companies to advise them, not overpaid bureaucrats who have bought a book of the "in" phrases to use in business and have all the commercial acumen of a paper weight.

rant over ...

B)

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In Wales?

Have you been there?

Yes.

There are nice places in Wales, just not the cheap bits.

I was wondering if there was any overlap

tim

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;)

At least they were kind enough to give us own assembly ..... :lol: joke that it is .. nobody wants it, scrap it and the ministers and give the money saved back to the private small businesses that are the growth industries of the future. They are the future of Wales - thhe days of big back handers to foreign companies to set up only to leave when the subsidy dries up (e,g. LG) should never return.

Wales has plenty of talent that is happy to remain indigenous .. it just needs the incentive, the opportunity and less red tape. They need business advisers and mentors who actually have run successful companies to advise them, not overpaid bureaucrats who have bought a book of the "in" phrases to use in business and have all the commercial acumen of a paper weight.

rant over ...

B)

Full independence is the way forward.

It get's rid of one layer of bureaucracy and one of politicians.

It means England doesn't subsidise Wales and Wales stands on it's own two feet.

Welsh public sector workers will squeal like piggies.

Edited by barry

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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