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Rightmove Hpi June 2010 0.3%

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Key points

Pace of rises slackens with average national asking prices up by 0.3%

Asking prices are already falling in real terms with RPI at 5.1% compared with a year-on-year rise of 5.0% in asking prices

22% increase in sellers coming to the market following suspension of HIPs results in large jump in unsold stock

Sellers and tenants face tougher times as deficit reduction measures, such as rumoured CGT increases, disrupt the fragile housing recovery

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/june-2010

looks like the kite flyers are just barely keeping it positive.

The actual report is not working at the moment.

Edited by Pent Up

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from city AM:

SEVERE austerity measures and an uncertain economic climate will kill off the recovery in house prices, property website Rightmove will warn today.

Revealing in its monthly survey that home asking prices only rose 0.3 per cent in June on the previous month, Rightmove said that the pace is slackening and the market is beginning to turn.

Miles Shipside, commercial director at Rightmove, said: “They say that troubles come in threes. The continuing mortgage famine has now been joined by a surge in sellers following the abolition of Hips and investor reticence driven by rumours of CGT increases. Together, these factors are likely to put an end to this year’s recovery in house prices.”

He added: “A surge of Hip-free properties has come to the market, and mortgage-reliant buyers and wary investors are failing to match the increased supply. That spells tougher times for sellers and tenants, with more properties for sale and fewer finding their way into landlords’ hands.”

According to Rightmove, the abolition of Home Information Packs (Hips) caused a 22 per cent increase in the number of sellers coming to the market. This has resulted in a large jump in unsold stock – the average unsold stock per estate agency branch increased from 71 to 74, the fourth monthly rise in succession.

Property has typically been viewed as a good hedge against high inflation but this appears to be no longer the case. The annual increase in average asking prices is just five per cent higher, less than annual RPI inflation, which is currently running at 5.1 per cent.

Half of the 10 regions in England and Wales covered by the survey reported negative monthly changes. Only London managed to post a strong rise in asking prices compared with last month – the 2.2 per cent monthly increase takes the annual change to 8.2 per cent.

splendid, nice Monday morning bear food.

Without seeing the actual report it seems to me that London is keeping this one positive with half of all areas falling but London still showing a strong rise.

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Real terms decline in a summer month, that's looking good to me.

Don't forget these are the actual figures not seasonally adjusted so assuming prices normally rise in June this would be a nice seasonally adjusted negative :)

Edit: the average June figure of all rightmove reports is 0.6% that's including the last two years of falls.

The avergage for a rising Market is 1.4% (ingnoring the last two years, just to see)

Edited by Pent Up

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Only you lot could see an increase in prices as a sign of hpc. Have you factored this months rent wasted into the equation?

Or anybody with a basic grasp of arithmetic and a rudimetary understanding of inflation, which includes Rightmove themselves.

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Well, it's good news but remember, these are still only asking prices.

However; Mr Shipside seems to be talking sence and any 'investor' reading that could well be having kittens by now! :lol:

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Only you lot could see an increase in prices as a sign of hpc. Have you factored this months rent wasted into the equation?

the figures are in seasonally adjusted, using a basic adjustment from the figures I show above would give you -0.3%.

Rightmove said that the pace is slackening and the market is beginning to turn.

Miles Shipside, commercial director at Rightmove, said: “They say that troubles come in threes. The continuing mortgage famine has now been joined by a surge in sellers following the abolition of Hips and investor reticence driven by rumours of CGT increases. Together, these factors are likely to put an end to this year’s recovery in house prices.”

He added: “A surge of Hip-free properties has come to the market, and mortgage-reliant buyers and wary investors are failing to match the increased supply. That spells tougher times for sellers and tenants, with more properties for sale and fewer finding their way into landlords’ hands.”

Property has typically been viewed as a good hedge against high inflation but this appears to be no longer the case. The annual increase in average asking prices is just five per cent higher, less than annual RPI inflation, which is currently running at 5.1 per cent.

this is not a sign of HPC but more evidence that the marketing is beginning to fall. Rightmove is a good sentiment indicator, this shows sentiment is flat even though we are in prime buying season. Not even estate agents think they can increase asking prices. Further to this, this index does not invlude properties that are reduced in asking price. All in all not good news for you bulls.

I don't rent. I have factored in all the money I have saved in interest payments if I had of bought in 2009. I'm in a much better position now.

Edited by Pent Up

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Only you lot could see an increase in prices as a sign of hpc. Have you factored this months rent wasted into the equation?

they probably have. Just like they factored in that 'wasted' money they 'wasted' on food (after all it comes out in 24 hours as s hit, so god, what a complete waste), and that 'wasted money' on 'taxes'.

And btw, shit4brains, it's not an increase in HPC, it's an increase in asking prices

jeezuz. You make scepticus look intelligent.

Edited by PropertyGuru

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Only you lot could see an increase in prices as a sign of hpc. Have you factored this months rent wasted into the equation?

:rolleyes:

Perhaps you could explain how one lives in a house without paying for the privilege? Either by means of rent/mortgage interest, or, in the case of outright owners, loss of income from capital?

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from city AM:

splendid, nice Monday morning bear food.

Without seeing the actual report it seems to me that London is keeping this one positive with half of all areas falling but London still showing a strong rise.

I predicted Rightmove would show a rise this month and possibly for another few months due to the amount of 'chancers' putting their properties on the market at ludicrously high prices now that HIPs have gone...I fear that they'll simply withdraw from sale if they don't achieve near asking price.

More forced sellers, please.

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/june-2010

looks like the kite flyers are just barely keeping it positive.

The actual report is not working at the moment.

I love it, effecitvely you accuse right move of having vested interests while at the same time claiming that because they only posted a rise of 0.3% the bears are having a field day.... the spinners spun. I have yet to see one of the HOC sheeple recognise themselves as amongst the biggest VI's going who spin things as much if not more than the worst of the other side... I prefer to steer a more reallistic path, but it seems for some they are happy to criticise the other side for spinning without recognising their own spinning is even more laughable.

It would have been better to simply note that it's a declining trend but at the same time to also note that it cannot be relied on anyway ( and to maintian that stance even in the odd months it shows a drop.. rather than at that stage suddenly declarin them to be visionairies)

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JESUS! Get REAL... Look, I am still a little bearish, but how long is this going to take? This real fall is tiny, barely worth mentioning! Cause for celebration? I don't think so. Come 4 years' time, I'm buying or moving abroad, whatever looks the best option - every month we hear 0.1% or something similar. Wow - sorry - I'm not on the attack, I've been a strong bear for a while now - but this just isn't happening. Prices are going to stay as they are if they don't fall within a year or two of the budget. Pains me to say it but I might just have to join in the game.

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I love it, effecitvely you accuse right move of having vested interests while at the same time claiming that because they only posted a rise of 0.3% the bears are having a field day.... the spinners spun. I have yet to see one of the HOC sheeple recognise themselves as amongst the biggest VI's going who spin things as much if not more than the worst of the other side... I prefer to steer a more reallistic path, but it seems for some they are happy to criticise the other side for spinning without recognising their own spinning is even more laughable.

It would have been better to simply note that it's a declining trend but at the same time to also note that it cannot be relied on anyway ( and to maintian that stance even in the odd months it shows a drop.. rather than at that stage suddenly declarin them to be visionairies)

I've always said always will say that the rightmove HPI is little more than a sentiment indicator. It has little bearing on actual sales prices. But rightmove themselves have produced a very bearish analysis even if the figure is slightly positive.

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JESUS! Get REAL... Look, I am still a little bearish, but how long is this going to take? This real fall is tiny, barely worth mentioning! Cause for celebration? I don't think so. Come 4 years' time, I'm buying or moving abroad, whatever looks the best option - every month we hear 0.1% or something similar. Wow - sorry - I'm not on the attack, I've been a strong bear for a while now - but this just isn't happening. Prices are going to stay as they are if they don't fall within a year or two of the budget. Pains me to say it but I might just have to join in the game.

buy a house then if you want. I really don't understand why bears are giving up now when we actually have real evidence that prices have slowed to a halt and drops are round the corner. Six months ago I can understand why people gave up, but now?

Edit: just re read your post. I agree actually if it doesn't happen now that all the economic conditions are stacking against HPI then i don't think it ever will crash.

I do think this is probably it though, having seen peaks around feb/march.

Edited by Pent Up

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I've always said always will say that the rightmove HPI is little more than a sentiment indicator. It has little bearing on actual sales prices. But rightmove themselves have produced a very bearish analysis even if the figure is slightly positive.

So if you thought the rightmove report was already bearish why did you declare " looks like the kite flyers are only just able to keep it positive"....... which appears to accuse them spinning the whole thing ( whereas you are now saying its a semingly balanced report)...... me thinks you protest too much about not spinning yourself.

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So if you thought the rightmove report was already bearish why did you declare " looks like the kite flyers are only just able to keep it positive"....... which appears to accuse them spinning the whole thing ( whereas you are now saying its a semingly balanced report)...... me thinks you protest too much about not spinning yourself.

how am I accusing them of spinning the report? They take the asking prices as they are added to their website and compile an HPI. It is what it is. By the term 'kite flyers' I am refering to vendors who, incouraged by the abolition of HIPS, put their property on the Market and insist on a ridiculously high asking price just to test the Market.

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Obviously this is asking prices but here’s the seasonally adjusted version (usual SA methodology: single pass, 1-year rolling average trend, 4-year window). In this case the SA trend is still stubbornly up - note that the seasonal adjustment needed in May is 2.2% down and only 1.8% in June, so in this case a small NSA change with a reducing (negative) SA comes out as a rise extending the current trend. May was -0.48% MoM SA, June +0.57% MoM SA.

Rightmove Seasonally Adjusted, including todays figure for June/10

2eogmfs.png

Edit : added % SA MoM.

Edited by spline

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ESTATE AGENTS SAY HOUSE PRICES HAVE GONE UP.

Great. Superb.Treffic.

Does anyone actually believe estate agents ?

Has anyone noticed that you get a s**t load of new listings on right move, massive asking prices, then 7 days later they are reduced 10% ?

I think there is a lot of manipulation of the rightmove data.

The data is corrupt and pointless, much the same could be said for most estate agents :lol:

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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To be fair, despite all the obvious objections rightmove's asking price index does have quite an impressive track record when you compare the historical YoY HPI against the others, For example, here's the HPI from the other suspects, and rightmove is right in there amongst them (light purple line). [and in stark contrast with Home.co.uk :o not shown for obvious reasons!]

2edmdt5.png

Edited by spline

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To be fair, despite all the obvious objections rightmove's asking price index does have quite an impressive track record when you compare the historical YoY HPI against the others, For example, here's the HPI from the other suspects, and rightmove is right in there amongst them (light purple line). [and in stark contrast with Home.co.uk :o not shown for obvious reasons!]

2edmdt5.png

Thanks spline, keep posting!

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  • 258 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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