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Money Week - Three Years To Go?

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Fred Harrison belives we have a further 3 years to go.

I am not so sure, but think it depends on communication and expectation of the event.

With the 'net and more forethought I think we maight see something sooner.

Especially if the govt is threatened with embarrassment over some of their property-price supporting policies.

What can we do to increase the fun??

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Fred Harrison belives we have a further 3 years to go.

I am not so sure, but think it depends on communication and expectation of the event.

With the 'net and more forethought I think we maight see something sooner.

Especially if the govt is threatened with embarrassment over some of their property-price supporting policies.

What can we do to increase the fun??

Please tell me he means 3 years before we hit the bottom, rather than the top?

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Guest Riser
Fred Harrison belives we have a further 3 years to go.

I am not so sure, but think it depends on communication and expectation of the event.

With the 'net and more forethought I think we maight see something sooner.

Especially if the govt is threatened with embarrassment over some of their property-price supporting policies.

What can we do to increase the fun??

I was surprised to see that article in Moneyweek, many of the points he made simply did not stack up. It was as if he was trying to bend the arguements to justify the title of his book:

"Boom, Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 "

He argues that Browns shifting of the economic cycle should continue to support spending commitments offering some stimulus to the economy until 2007/8. Yet this is just fiddling of the economic figures that will make no difference to the rate at which Brown wastes tax payers money and the 10 Billion change is just a drop in the ocean compared to the problems he faces with falling tax receipts and growth around 50% of his target. Its like believing that the 2.3% CPI represents the true level of inflation in the economy and that by ignoring the true level of inflation it will some how go away.

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I'm sure he ought to Dr B. However, he is of the opinion that the decline will not start significantly until 2010.

I am not so sure and believe that comments by Greenspan and others will trigger the expectancy of falls and lead to the onset earlier.

If we believed Fred we might buy now to sell in 2009. - Not me!!

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I've typed out an extract for your perusal!

“but there are a few good reasons apart from the historical 18 year cycle that should make us think that the bubble will run to 2008. Government spending is still very high in the UK, for example – now that the Treasury has redefined its version of a ‘cycle’, Gordon Brown can raise borrowing to support his spending commitments. This should continue to offer some stimulus to the economy until 20007/2008, when it is scheduled to tail off.

John Prescott’s plans to help first time buyers and ‘key workers’ into the market should also make it look more solid than it is, as should the fact that higher income earners are predicted to inject more than £8bn into property through self-invested personal pension funds from next April. ………….However, all the pressures on the market will converge on 2008 as the stimuli run out."

Ooh er. It sounds quite plausible to me. Can anyone shoot it down please?

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"If we believed Fred we might buy now to sell in 2009"

OK. He must be looking at demographics then.

Can anyone post the article here?

I agree with Riser - I think he is just trying to justify the title to his book.

I have read the book and basically he argues that there is an 18 year building cycle of booms and busts over the last 400 years. Book seems to make sense but it is not exactly every 18 years. I think he has called it too late this time.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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