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Being An Uber Bear - Why?

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Uber Bears who permeate this forum -

- You are bearish on anything (except worthless wallpaper currency and bonds - doh ;) )

- You believe in deflation despite the facts to the contrary

- You believe in deflation simply because you want house price to crash the most (i.e linking effect to the cause rather than rationally linking the cause to the effect)

- You believe inflation can't occur because that would mean property owners would mostly see real term fall in prices as opposed to large nominal deflation type falls (you really believe that property owners must be punished and therefore this alters your view of what will happen)

- You can't believe in any bull market in any asset anywhere in the world (unless it is in worthless wallpaper currency and bonds).

- You link every mainstream press cliping that sets out a doom scenario rather than thinking independently and contrarian.

Real Uber's like Faber, Rogers and Schiff don't act in the same manner. They think independently and believe there are numerous opportunities in the world (but none in worthless currencies and bonds :P )

Would be interested to hear the uber's thoughts...

Edited by ringledman

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I've only recently joined here but I can see what you are talking about.

We all want prices to go down but there is no point denying facts.

I looked on the Telegraph link posted on here regarding the guy who said he made money with a 100% mortgage. Fact..he did.

It doesnt matter how much people dont like the fact but its true.

Also, now the banks are capping loan amounts people will not be able to get on the ladder. Houses don't really drop prices in the long term. If I bought now I wouldnt care about prices because we'd live in the place. It would go up more than we paid for it eventually. I think in your heart of hearts we all know buying a house is a good thing. What we be the point being on here and looking at prices if houses were so bad to own?

I think people on here are in danger of looking stupid by commenting on other sites with extreme views. Houses are going up at the moment. That's what homeowners are seeing. If they can tap into equity again and start spending then everyone will be happy.

My two pennence worth

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Guest Noodle

I've only recently joined here but I can see what you are talking about.

We all want prices to go down but there is no point denying facts.

I looked on the Telegraph link posted on here regarding the guy who said he made money with a 100% mortgage. Fact..he did.

It doesnt matter how much people dont like the fact but its true.

Also, now the banks are capping loan amounts people will not be able to get on the ladder. Houses don't really drop prices in the long term. If I bought now I wouldnt care about prices because we'd live in the place. It would go up more than we paid for it eventually. I think in your heart of hearts we all know buying a house is a good thing. What we be the point being on here and looking at prices if houses were so bad to own?

I think people on here are in danger of looking stupid by commenting on other sites with extreme views. Houses are going up at the moment. That's what homeowners are seeing. If they can tap into equity again and start spending then everyone will be happy.

My two pennence worth

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I looked on the Telegraph link posted on here regarding the guy who said he made money with a 100% mortgage. Fact..he did.

Given this was before the deregulation of the lending industry l can only wonder at what enormous asset pile he had acting as guarantor. I wouldnt be suprised if he also had a credit card back then as well. Money makes money and frankly the only reason a person who could get a 100% mortgage back then would do so is for tax reasons and/or some other interfamilial wealth transfer/legal laundering process.

Also, now the banks are capping loan amounts people will not be able to get on the ladder.

When people cant afford to buy, houses come down in price to a new equilibrium. By the way there is no such thing as a ladder. Its a career ladder that enables you to increase the nominal amount you put towards paying off a mortgage when you upsize. The concept that somehow buying a starter home and paying 95% of your repayments in interest to save up some "equity" is a seriously inefficient way of saving, which would only work when a. a person is too feckless to save any other way except by threat of losing their home and b. the cost of paying interest on a home loan + maintenance + lost opportunity cost of deposit < rental on equivalent property.

I think people on here are in danger of looking stupid by commenting on other sites with extreme views. Houses are going up at the moment. That's what homeowners are seeing. If they can tap into equity again and start spending then everyone will be happy.

All aboard the debt Ponzi train. You do realise that's how we got to this stage. i.e. widespread bank collapse and ballooning bailout, sovereign debt and future cuts and taxation, wondering which Euro country is going to default first, wondering when the US/Japan is going to have a failed Bond auction etc? *Covers mouth* oh my, you really don't, do you??

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Uber Bears who permeate this forum -

- You are bearish on anything (except worthless wallpaper currency and bonds - doh ;) )

- You believe in deflation despite the facts to the contrary

- You believe in deflation simply because you want house price to crash the most (i.e linking effect to the cause rather than rationally linking the cause to the effect)

- You believe inflation can't occur because that would mean property owners would mostly see real term fall in prices as opposed to large nominal deflation type falls (you really believe that property owners must be punished and therefore this alters your view of what will happen)

- You can't believe in any bull market in any asset anywhere in the world (unless it is in worthless wallpaper currency and bonds).

- You link every mainstream press cliping that sets out a doom scenario rather than thinking independently and contrarian.

Real Uber's like Faber, Rogers and Schiff don't act in the same manner. They think independently and believe there are numerous opportunities in the world (but none in worthless currencies and bonds :P )

Would be interested to hear the uber's thoughts...

I'm becoming increasingly aware of a distinction between people whose attitude is fundamentally that of traders compared to people whose attitude is fundamentally that of owners.

If something has gone up in price, a trader will buy in at the higher price and give the last person their profit happily, because they think they will profit in turn. They have no particular sentiment towards whatever it is they have on their books. It is just an asset to be traded as and when it is profitable. A cycle in prices is a good thing for the trader is it is the means whereby they realise profits.

By contrast someone who wants to own objects to paying a big profit to a previous asset holder, because their attitude is that they want to own whatever it is. They are very likely sentimentally attached to what they own. Their expectation is that they will pay off any debts outstanding, hence the price they pay matters. A lot. They have no intention of trading and are not interested in profit. They do not want to have to time a cycle to maximise their financial return. They see someone else's profit as their loss.

Traders are by their very nature bullish. Owners are pushed into bearishness as a defence strategy. It isn't a case of one group being right or wrong or better or worse than the other. The problem is that it is inevitable that when both types are to be found in an area like housing the result will be tension and conflict.

There are also moral/ethical issues over exploitation. I find the bull case in a finite world of limited resources distasteful. The spectacle of people engaged in an orgy of lazy, greedy speculative behaviour is the characteristic public life of 21st century western society. Only fools and horses work. I suspect you will find that a lot of uberbears think along these lines. This is one of the reasons why bears and bulls are worlds apart. What you see as bears' wishful thinking (prices to fall, asset holders deprived of their unearned gains) is a moral revulsion against greedy, grasping behaviour.

Meanwhile the tragedy of the human condition is that greed and rapaciousness makes lots of people unhappy while those who get rich seem rarely to be happy - as there is always someone richer than them.

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Guest Noodle

Meanwhile the tragedy of the human condition is that greed and rapaciousness makes lots of people unhappy while those who get rich seem rarely to be happy - as there is always someone richer than them.

Great quote, put in your sig.

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I see your point ringleman.

I used to be an uber bear, there was nothing at that time to tell me anything other than bearish thoughts. I hadn't though at that time in my thinking factored in printing money, I just never contiplated that a first world nation would resort to this. Now of course I realise that the 'system' is more important than common sense, hence I decided to get my nose in the trough before it was too late. If you can't beat 'em join 'em.

I feel for some of the uber bears, they are theorectically correct in most of their beliefs but practically they are going to be proved wrong.

If £200 billion of new money wasn't enough to scare them into protective action then I guess they will have to console themselves with knowing they were ultimatley correct but disastrously poorer as a result of not acting through some kind of collective madness. The herd mentality is very strong and persuasive.

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lallalallala put your fingers in your ears and all will be well.

He is saying something you do not want to hear, therefore he must be a troll and attacked. Foolishness?

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Because they're poor souls living in a rich, capitalist country, with no hope of improving their lot, unless severe asset/HPC occurs to enable them to buy properteeeeeee which they constatly deride and scoff at. And that is the essence, the personificaton, of self-interest & rapaciousness: to pray for the destruction of the whole financial system, causing untold misery to billions, so the poor uber bears can acquire properteeeeeeeeeeeee :ph34r:

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Because they're poor souls living in a rich, capitalist country, with no hope of improving their lot, unless severe asset/HPC occurs to enable them to buy properteeeeeee which they constatly deride and scoff at. And that is the essence, the personificaton, of self-interest & rapaciousness: to pray for the destruction of the whole financial system, causing untold misery to billions, so the poor uber bears can acquire properteeeeeeeeeeeee :ph34r:

I take it you are being sarcastic. If not, it is hard to see how wanting to buy one house to live in with a mortgage of say four times income is "the personificaton, of self-interest & rapaciousness". Unless there's some deep awareness in the bull mentality that the something for nothing living off monopolistic exploitation is not cricket and every now and then that awareness unwittingly reveals itself.

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I see your point ringleman.

I used to be an uber bear, there was nothing at that time to tell me anything other than bearish thoughts. I hadn't though at that time in my thinking factored in printing money, I just never contiplated that a first world nation would resort to this. Now of course I realise that the 'system' is more important than common sense, hence I decided to get my nose in the trough before it was too late. If you can't beat 'em join 'em.

I feel for some of the uber bears, they are theorectically correct in most of their beliefs but practically they are going to be proved wrong.

If £200 billion of new money wasn't enough to scare them into protective action then I guess they will have to console themselves with knowing they were ultimatley correct but disastrously poorer as a result of not acting through some kind of collective madness. The herd mentality is very strong and persuasive.

The only two historical precendents that I can think of that roughly match our current situation are Japan in the 1990s to date and the US in the 1930s.

In both cases, people thought that excessesive leverage was materially reduced to safe levels well before leverage levels returned to sustatinable levels. People who jumped on the asset price recovery bandwagon too early got crushed in both cases.

I subscribe to the view that history doesn't always repeat but that it often rhymes.

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I've only recently joined here but I can see what you are talking about.

We all want prices to go down but there is no point denying facts.

I looked on the Telegraph link posted on here regarding the guy who said he made money with a 100% mortgage. Fact..he did.

It doesnt matter how much people dont like the fact but its true.

Also, now the banks are capping loan amounts people will not be able to get on the ladder. Houses don't really drop prices in the long term. If I bought now I wouldnt care about prices because we'd live in the place. It would go up more than we paid for it eventually. I think in your heart of hearts we all know buying a house is a good thing. What we be the point being on here and looking at prices if houses were so bad to own?

I think people on here are in danger of looking stupid by commenting on other sites with extreme views. Houses are going up at the moment. That's what homeowners are seeing. If they can tap into equity again and start spending then everyone will be happy.

My two pennence worth

Evidence?

"My house is my cashpoint" - a touch cliched eh?

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The only two historical precendents that I can think of that roughly match our current situation are Japan in the 1990s to date and the US in the 1930s.

In both cases, people thought that excessesive leverage was materially reduced to safe levels well before leverage levels returned to sustatinable levels. People who jumped on the asset price recovery bandwagon too early got crushed in both cases.

I subscribe to the view that history doesn't always repeat but that it often rhymes.

There are no historical precedents.

We had the gold standard in the 30's and Japan carries a net surplus.

We now have a fiat currency and we carry a trade deficit.

Pay your money you takes your chances..............

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Uber Bears who permeate this forum -

- You are bearish on anything (except worthless wallpaper currency and bonds  - doh ;) )

- You believe in deflation despite the facts to the contrary

- You believe in deflation simply because you want house price to crash the most (i.e linking effect to the cause rather than rationally linking the cause to the effect)

- You believe inflation can't occur because that would mean property owners would mostly see real term fall in prices as opposed to large nominal deflation type falls (you really believe that property owners must be punished and therefore this alters your view of what will happen)

- You can't believe in any bull market in any asset anywhere in the world (unless it is in worthless wallpaper currency and bonds).

- You link every mainstream press cliping that sets out a doom scenario rather than thinking independently and contrarian.

Real Uber's like Faber, Rogers and Schiff don't act in the same manner. They think independently and believe there are numerous opportunities in the world (but none in worthless currencies and bonds  :P )

Would be interested to hear the uber's thoughts...

The term is permibear, uberbears flip out and start posting ant HPC videos on youtube and get arrested...

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lallalallala put your fingers in your ears and all will be well.

He is saying something you do not want to hear, therefore he must be a troll and attacked. Foolishness?

No, he made a post that looked like a typical troll - lots of cheap shots, a complete lack of well-argued points, and a disparaging attitude "everyone who posts here has got it wrong".

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Because they're poor souls living in a rich, capitalist country, with no hope of improving their lot, unless severe asset/HPC occurs to enable them to buy properteeeeeee which they constatly deride and scoff at. And that is the essence, the personificaton, of self-interest & rapaciousness: to pray for the destruction of the whole financial system, causing untold misery to billions, so the poor uber bears can acquire properteeeeeeeeeeeee :ph34r:

Sure we can improve our lot.

Abroad.

It's just that some people care enough about this country to wait and see if the new government is going to do anything about the crazy mental illness that's being sweeping it.

Certainly that's my case. We're waiting 2 years to see what happens. After that, if we're not wanted, we'll go and improve our lot elsewhere... ;)

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Guest Noodle

Sure we can improve our lot.

Abroad.

It's just that some people care enough about this country to wait and see if the new government is going to do anything about the crazy mental illness that's being sweeping it.

Certainly that's my case. We're waiting 2 years to see what happens. After that, if we're not wanted, we'll go and improve our lot elsewhere... ;)

Careful. ;)

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I've only recently joined here but I can see what you are talking about.

We all want prices to go down but there is no point denying facts.

I looked on the Telegraph link posted on here regarding the guy who said he made money with a 100% mortgage. Fact..he did.

It doesnt matter how much people dont like the fact but its true.

Also, now the banks are capping loan amounts people will not be able to get on the ladder. Houses don't really drop prices in the long term. If I bought now I wouldnt care about prices because we'd live in the place. It would go up more than we paid for it eventually. I think in your heart of hearts we all know buying a house is a good thing. What we be the point being on here and looking at prices if houses were so bad to own?

I think people on here are in danger of looking stupid by commenting on other sites with extreme views. Houses are going up at the moment. That's what homeowners are seeing. If they can tap into equity again and start spending then everyone will be happy.

My two pennence worth

think you might have set your 'bull or bear' status wrong there mate.

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Uberbear's (faber et al) generally seem to think that we will get rampant inflation due to govt printing I thought?

That makes sense to me, the liabilities and deficits and debts can all be dealt with (to an extent) by printing more money, after all that is what the world did after WWII.

Houses seem very overvalued in the UK to me. But then I grew up in Canada and the USA, where a house price multiple of 2.5 income is more the norm. Ultimately the restrictive planning laws and expensive land here make houses expensive. If you want to have cheaper houses in the long term we have to build lots and lots more, and more of houses that people want to buy. (I find most housing estates in Britain very depressing for some reason.)

I don't see anyone doing that soon.

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The problem I have with the ubers is that they generally don't look at things rationally but rather cloud their judgement with what they want to occur.

I believe UK property is grossly overvalued but I don't believe we will have the huge nominal falls that the deflationists believe. With interest rates so low, inflation back, a government that must print its way out of this mess; property is likely to crash mostly through real term falls much more so. Should rates get ramped up hard then yes we will see large nominal falls.

Financial judgements should be made on the facts.

The uber's view on commodities and stocks is likewise clouded by the fact they usually don't like to see anyone make a profit on an asset that can fluctuate in value. They think that everyone should stick to bonds and cash that can't crash, neglecting the errors of this view in an inflationary environment.

The uber's also totally dismiss the changes that are afoot in the global economy. Because the 'West' if fuked they believe the rest of the emerging world must also be so. They are clouded by their socialist views that no one can make money in these new markets.

In general the ubers believe what they want to believe regardless of any form of financial analysis to support their views.

There are no historical precedents.

We had the gold standard in the 30's and Japan carries a net surplus.

We now have a fiat currency and we carry a trade deficit.

Pay your money you takes your chances..............

Great point. Anyone who thinks we are Japan of the 90s needs to read some economic history of the differences.

Edited by ringledman

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The problem I have with the ubers is that they generally don't look at things rationally but rather cloud their judgement with what they want to occur.

...snip...

Out of curiosity, who are these "ubers"? I can't - off-hand - think of anyone amongst the regulars on this board who would fit your description.

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Guest Noodle

Out of curiosity, who are these "ubers"? I can't - off-hand - think of anyone amongst the regulars on this board who would fit your description.

Godley?

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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