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Oliver Sutton

M4 Lending Down Again

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deflation in leveraged assets inflation in stuff people need - same as it has been for the last few years

could go hyper though when enough realise there is not a cat in hells chance of the debt being repaid

Yep.

Lots of tax rises will keep inflation positive.

Zero real growth though.

Stagflation lite.

Could be a year or two before people recognise it.

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Yep.

Lots of tax rises will keep inflation positive.

Zero real growth though.

Stagflation lite.

Could be a year or two before people recognise it.

Please excuse my ignorance but should one purchase a house now? Stagflation occured in the 70's, wish I'd bought in the day. Please help me out

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ahh the good old M4 broad money charts. I have no idea what these mean or how they would indicate inflation/deflation.

But I do like to pretend it's a house price graph :)

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Why will tax rises increase inflation?

Apparently so. According to the BOE the current spike in inflation is caused, in part, by VAT returning to 17.5% in December. Which sounds to me like they are ignoring the fact the on June 22 VAT will rise again, another tempory spike?

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Something tells me this thread is due the I-treatment shortly - brace yourselves :P

He'll have a problem.

Like i said even M4 is now negative.

If he come's on here I'll tear him so many new ones he'll have an ärse like a colander.

TABLEA.GIF

Edited by barry

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deflation in leveraged assets inflation in stuff people need - same as it has been for the last few years

could go hyper though when enough realise there is not a cat in hells chance of the debt being repaid

Yup.

Please excuse my ignorance but should one purchase a house now? Stagflation occured in the 70's, wish I'd bought in the day. Please help me out

Nope. M4 is a measure of leverage. Less leverage => lower house prices.

Even if they print up 10 times more money, it is likely that every day things will become 10 times more expensive, meaning people have less money for mortgage repayments.

ahh the good old M4 broad money charts. I have no idea what these mean or how they would indicate inflation/deflation.

But I do like to pretend it's a house price graph :)

You wouldn't be far wrong, pretending that tbh!

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I'll tear him so many new ones he'll have an ärse like a colander.

he already has an ärse like a colander, according to the bikers down at 'the Pink Flamingo'. I read it in a phone box on the Kings Road.

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he already has an ärse like a colander, according to the bikers down at 'the Pink Flamingo'. I read it in a phone box on the Kings Road.

yes but he would deny all existance of everything

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he already has an ärse like a colander, according to the bikers down at 'the Pink Flamingo'. I read it in a phone box on the Kings Road.

Thats scandalous!! I hope you put one of your cards over it.

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he already has an ärse like a colander, according to the bikers down at 'the Pink Flamingo'. I read it in a phone box on the Kings Road.

****** me, you can read?

I though you had this typed into the PC by your "helper" at the asylum.

Regardless - here we go!

M4 doesn't measure money.

That is all.

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sgs-m3.gif?hl=ad&t=1276611805

Snap :D

Gold and Silver - it's on the way up. If it maintains anywhere near the current prices through usual summer falls, then we are in for the treat.

The measure of M3, which the fed does not any longer calculate, is still calculated by others. It is the measure of money supply which fell sharply through 1931-33 and the graph for today is 'eerily' (as George Soros would say) following the same pattern again.

More printing, new autumn Tarp (even though lots of banks are not paying it back), inflation edging up, interest rate lever held down? That is the recipe for disaster in the 1933 history books.

We never learn. Except that it makes it even more likely that fiat currency will struggle and GOLD/SILVER time is coming.

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..and GOLD/SILVER time is coming.

I agree that the current crop of fiat currencies is almost toast, but new ones will be just around the corner.

Central Banks know that Gold is the ultimate evil against fiat currencies, but why do you think they will let it go to the moon ?

Isn't it fairly common knowledge that the CB's (in collusion with bullion banks) control the price of gold and silver to keep their fiat currencies look like good value ?

And so they can pull down the price any time they like ? The trigger for which you won't have any knowledge of ?

And when new currencies arrive, gold will be revalued down to the $250 range (or something sane), so you will lose out unless you time your sell perfectly (the moment of maximum panic)

Aren't you betting against the central banks if you are holding gold long?

And do you think you can win ?

Apologies for hijacking the thread :unsure:

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Gold and Silver - it's on the way up. If it maintains anywhere near the current prices through usual summer falls, then we are in for the treat.

The measure of M3, which the fed does not any longer calculate, is still calculated by others. It is the measure of money supply which fell sharply through 1931-33 and the graph for today is 'eerily' (as George Soros would say) following the same pattern again.

More printing, new autumn Tarp (even though lots of banks are not paying it back), inflation edging up, interest rate lever held down? That is the recipe for disaster in the 1933 history books.

We never learn. Except that it makes it even more likely that fiat currency will struggle and GOLD/SILVER time is coming.

"Inflation is akin to toothpaste, almost impossible to get it back in the tube once it is out. Deflation, is more like air escaping from a balloon--once it has escaped its gone and it takes a lot of effort to blow the balloon up again."

I agree. The trend toward deflation is set and there is no reversing it until all of the air is out of the bubble and a great effort--actual work, will be required to re-inflate it. HPI caused the bubble and the reverse of HPI is taking it down. The only way we will restore our economy, with HPI out of the picture, is through darn hard work. And that will take years. In the meantime enjoy deflation for a few decades. Its the surprise that most are not expecting because most do not believe in the economic cycle (boom to bust, inflation to deflation, high to low etc. etc. etc. ad nauseum).

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"Inflation is akin to toothpaste, almost impossible to get it back in the tube once it is out. Deflation, is more like air escaping from a balloon--once it has escaped its gone and it takes a lot of effort to blow the balloon up again."

I agree. The trend toward deflation is set and there is no reversing it until all of the air is out of the bubble and a great effort--actual work, will be required to re-inflate it. HPI caused the bubble and the reverse of HPI is taking it down. The only way we will restore our economy, with HPI out of the picture, is through darn hard work. And that will take years. In the meantime enjoy deflation for a few decades. Its the surprise that most are not expecting because most do not believe in the economic cycle (boom to bust, inflation to deflation, high to low etc. etc. etc. ad nauseum).

Yes, the incredibly difficult work of pressing the "print" button. I agree that hyperinflation is pretty much inevitable and the more you talk about deflation the nearer it gets.

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Yes, the incredibly difficult work of pressing the "print" button. I agree that hyperinflation is pretty much inevitable and the more you talk about deflation the nearer it gets.

What personal action have you taken against the future inflation, Injin?

Do you have a bunker somewhere with land, guns, a greenhouse, some animals and preserved plant seeds?

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  • 146 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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