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Alfie Moon

Will Transactions In 2010 Be Lower Than 2009?

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Throughout 2009 Estate Agents and other property market bulls/VI's claimed that there was a recovery in progress and that whilst property sales transactions had collapsed (with the 1st Quarter of 2009 being the bottom) in 2008 they had been climbing steadily throughout 2009 and this would continue in 2010 with the lows of 1st Quarter 2009 never to be repeated. Looking at the Land Registry data for completed property sales for Worcester we find:

The number of property sales during the 1st quarter of the year in Worcester were:

2006 - 560 properties sold

2007 - 517

2008 - 297

2009 - 200

2010 - 205

In Worcester, then, it would seem that the bottom of the collapse in transactions seen in the 1st Quarter of 2009 has been more or less repeated this year. My sense, from the reports in the media nationally, and through monitoring Worcester with Property Bee, is that the 2nd Quarter of 2010, in terms of transactions, may well be lower than in 2009. Will 2010 witness even lower transaction volumes than 2009 and 2008? If Estate Agents keep asking prices at current levels then we certainly will. Mind you, up here in the West Midlands I have recently see price reductions of £20k-£30k in one go for the £200k-£300k price range. Perhaps Estate Agents are beginning to see that the only positive way forward for them is through major reductions in asking prices?

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alfie,there's some interesting stats there.no vol.ume,no recovery.can you print the stats on an annual basis as well please.

The annual stats, for number of property sales in Worcester (Land Registry data), are as follows:

2000 - 2685 properties sold

2001 - 2867 sold

2002 - 2966

2003 - 2522

2004 - 2375

2005 - 2137

2006 - 2690

2007 - 2179

2008 - 1180

2009 - 973

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Throughout 2009 Estate Agents and other property market bulls/VI's claimed that there was a recovery in progress and that whilst property sales transactions had collapsed (with the 1st Quarter of 2009 being the bottom) in 2008 they had been climbing steadily throughout 2009 and this would continue in 2010 with the lows of 1st Quarter 2009 never to be repeated. Looking at the Land Registry data for completed property sales for Worcester we find:

The number of property sales during the 1st quarter of the year in Worcester were:

2006 - 560 properties sold

2007 - 517

2008 - 297

2009 - 200

2010 - 205

In Worcester, then, it would seem that the bottom of the collapse in transactions seen in the 1st Quarter of 2009 has been more or less repeated this year. My sense, from the reports in the media nationally, and through monitoring Worcester with Property Bee, is that the 2nd Quarter of 2010, in terms of transactions, may well be lower than in 2009. Will 2010 witness even lower transaction volumes than 2009 and 2008? If Estate Agents keep asking prices at current levels then we certainly will. Mind you, up here in the West Midlands I have recently see price reductions of £20k-£30k in one go for the £200k-£300k price range. Perhaps Estate Agents are beginning to see that the only positive way forward for them is through major reductions in asking prices?

Good stats, always interesting to see this type of data.

have you got a link for the tool you use to dig that data out? I think there's a land registry tool for it - but you seem to be using something, so I thought I'd ask instead...

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I tend to use the Home.co.uk website which uses the Land Registry data. Go to the website, enter the name of town/city, or postcode, and click on 'house prices which will take you to a page where you need to click on the 'name of town' house prices since 2000' link and that will take you to a page with various graphs etc. Scroll down to the bottom of the page and you can use their tool to generate the kind of stats I have provided here for Worcester. Apologies if this isn't too clear but need to do this response in a rush.

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I tend to use the Home.co.uk website which uses the Land Registry data. Go to the website, enter the name of town/city, or postcode, and click on 'house prices which will take you to a page where you need to click on the 'name of town' house prices since 2000' link and that will take you to a page with various graphs etc. Scroll down to the bottom of the page and you can use their tool to generate the kind of stats I have provided here for Worcester. Apologies if this isn't too clear but need to do this response in a rush.

thanks, I'd not seen that before. Appreciated.

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We've just bought in the West Mids and our experience is that biggest drops in percentage terms are for houses less than 250k in areas that arn't the most desireable. For example, there appears to be bigger reductions in asking prices for houses in, say, Olton than in Solihull. The house we bought was 10% off what the previous owners paid for it 2 years ago but the simple fact is they wouldn't have sold it for less than that. Our experience of property in and around Solihull in the 400k bracket is the people just won't accept an offer full stop - they just won't move. Transactions will continue to be low IMO and the standoff appears to be firm. I think we need big interest rate increases to see anything dramatic.

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