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Oliver Sutton

Greek Bonds

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10 year up to 9.34%.

Gloomberg

Haven't seen anyone else mention this.

Couple of days ago I posted an artcile that said there is an additional 5% load on top of the market rates for Grecian debt.

The market is bracing for Spain to admit it is in the same place as Greece and will need a bail out. This will amount to a one-two punch that one more situation (Porugal?) will lead to a complete collapse. Confidence in all EZ bonds is eroding rapidly. PIMCO are saying German bonds might be okay but the rest???

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Couple of days ago I posted an artcile that said there is an additional 5% load on top of the market rates for Grecian debt.

The market is bracing for Spain to admit it is in the same place as Greece and will need a bail out. This will amount to a one-two punch that one more situation (Porugal?) will lead to a complete collapse. Confidence in all EZ bonds is eroding rapidly. PIMCO are saying German bonds might be okay but the rest???

What about Italy with 115% GDP to debt ratio? They are in the PIGS mess. The one hundred italian economists have come out with it saying the current situation with the EURO DOES NOT WORK.

Any takers for Italian bonds this morning?........No?......going, going......bust.

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What about Italy with 115% GDP to debt ratio? They are in the PIGS mess. The one hundred italian economists have come out with it saying the current situation with the EURO DOES NOT WORK.

Any takers for Italian bonds this morning?........No?......going, going......bust.

Yep, Italy have somehow escaped the "limelight" so far, but the cracks are beginning to show.

10yr BTPs now yielding over 50bp more than 10yr gilts.

Wait until the SHTF in Spain...

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Wow this is so unexpected, I thought it had all been fixed.

Does this mean it's still contained.

Sure as hell it's all very contained by now :lol: ... With the long-end bonds trading at a touch above 50, yields are basically irrelevant. This is very close to the potential recovery value, i.e. downside is very limited should they default. Just a tip on where to look for an almost riskless asset with decent return :rolleyes:

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Sure as hell it's all very contained by now :lol: ... With the long-end bonds trading at a touch above 50, yields are basically irrelevant. This is very close to the potential recovery value, i.e. downside is very limited should they default. Just a tip on where to look for an almost riskless asset with decent return :rolleyes:

Still climbing. Up to 10.58% today.

Don't really understand that post. Could someone explain?

Thanks in advance.

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Still climbing. Up to 10.58% today.

Don't really understand that post. Could someone explain?

Thanks in advance.

If we knew for sure that Greece was going to default to-morrow and that the ECB would settle all Greek liabilties for EUR 0.50 per EUR of face amount with no accrued interest, all Greek liabilities would trade at half of their face amount regardless of their nominal maturity date.

Because of yield curve arithmetic, this means that one month bill would yield 1,200%. A 10 year 6% bond would yield 16.56%.

The settlement amount is called the recovery rate. When liabilties are deemed to be close to default, they all trade at their recovery rate irrespective of maturity which leads to a massively inverted yield curve due to yield arithmetic.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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