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Mikhail Liebenstein

Bp Up 3% On The Nasdaq

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Ok, I can see why BP would be up on this. The damage is big, $20bn and may not be a limit, but in many senses that sets a ceiling value on the markets expectation.

To set this in context, $20bn to BP is about the equivalent of 2 years dividends. So with one year suspension and relatively high oil price this is not going to have that big an impact in the long term. Ironically BP actually may make more money if drilling restrictions are tightened as this will further increase the oil price.

My guess is that if BP was between £6.50 and £5.60 before the deep water horizon, you should knock out about 10% for the loss of 2 years dividend, so that would probably value the shares at about £5 each.

I've bought a small number at £3.60 (so down a bit), but I'll fill up again tomorrow.

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Ok, I can see why BP would be up on this. The damage is big, $20bn and may not be a limit, but in many senses that sets a ceiling value on the markets expectation.

To set this in context, $20bn to BP is about the equivalent of 2 years dividends. So with one year suspension and relatively high oil price this is not going to have that big an impact in the long term. Ironically BP actually may make more money if drilling restrictions are tightened as this will further increase the oil price.

My guess is that if BP was between £6.50 and £5.60 before the deep water horizon, you should knock out about 10% for the loss of 2 years dividend, so that would probably value the shares at about £5 each.

I've bought a small number at £3.60 (so down a bit), but I'll fill up again tomorrow.

The entire market is moving up - DOW has forgotten about worrying about going below 10,000. Onwards and upwards it seems and perhaps even BP is being dragged up.

Or what you said.

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~You are only basing the funding of the escrow account on the dividend payment. BP makes more money than ispaind in dividends, at present oil price BP makes 1.6billion a month (YES A MONTH).

Read the statement carefully BP have stated "We will not pay a dividend for the remainder of this year." i.e they have paid two dividends this year (they pay quarterly to comply with US law) so two payments will be suspended.

EDIT MEA CULPA they are suspending three dividend payments not two because they have cancelled the already announced 2nd quarter dividend.

Edited by ralphmalph

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Sometimes you have to ignore the catastrophe doomsters who will talk everything down. I'm with Mike on this. There are times to buy, whether it be banks, housebuilders or oil companies. If you buy nothing you will miss everything.

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Ok, I can see why BP would be up on this. The damage is big, $20bn and may not be a limit, but in many senses that sets a ceiling value on the markets expectation.

To set this in context, $20bn to BP is about the equivalent of 2 years dividends. So with one year suspension and relatively high oil price this is not going to have that big an impact in the long term. Ironically BP actually may make more money if drilling restrictions are tightened as this will further increase the oil price.

My guess is that if BP was between £6.50 and £5.60 before the deep water horizon, you should knock out about 10% for the loss of 2 years dividend, so that would probably value the shares at about £5 each.

I've bought a small number at £3.60 (so down a bit), but I'll fill up again tomorrow.

You may be right... 1yr CDS >1000 bp would make me nervous though

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Also in the statement BP said "It would substantially reduce capital investment."

Translated "BP will no longer drill for oil in the US." meaning job losses in the US. Well done Obummer.

EDIT: With TNK in Russia BP has surplus oil fields to make productive. Well Obummers Loss is Putins gain.

Edited by ralphmalph

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Sometimes you have to ignore the catastrophe doomsters who will talk everything down. I'm with Mike on this. There are times to buy, whether it be banks, housebuilders or oil companies. If you buy nothing you will miss everything.

... but what happens if the 2 wells they are drilling miss the original wellbore? It would take another 7 to 10 days to sidetrack and have another go per well. Even if the new wells hit the original wellbore, why should it drill hard casing/cement instead of bouncing off into soft claystone?

... plus everyone is ignoring the fact that the tonnes of dispersent they are using to keep the oil off the surface is having a big environmental impact and the oil hasn't gone away, it is just 10m below the surface.

I'm happy to wait until August to find out what I am letting myself in for by holding BP stock.

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Another thought here is seeing as Transocean, Halibuton and the other US based Oil Service companies dumped on BP big time where will BP switch the business to because they sure as hell will (obummer speak) not use the US companies again.

I would look at companies like Petrofac and Cape who have expertise in the North Sea to provide the services to BP as well, these could be a better play than BP shares themselves.

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BP starts spreading the grief among its partners

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=43259612&symbol=L%5EBP

Just watch these US companies wriggle and squirm and try to get out. Do not forget under US law the liability is 75million total.

I wonder what Obummer will say when US comapanies try to wriggle out based on the letter of the law.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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