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Deckard

Spain - A Matter Of Weeks Now?

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Well, we all remember the official denials before Greece was "rescued", now we're getting this.

EU Denies Report of EU, IMF, U.S. Credit Line for Spain

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- The European Union today ‘firmly’ denied a report that the International Monetary Fund, the EU the U.S. Treasury are putting together a credit line of as much as 250 billion euros for the Spanish government. “I can firmly deny it,” European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj said this morning in response to the report in El Economista. He said no such plan is being prepared for Spain.

And this.

IMF Head Flying To Spain

IMF head Dominique Strauss-Khan is flying to Spain "to discuss global economic developments with the Prime Minister, and to consult with him on developments in Spain, including the government's economic policies and reforms" according to Reuters. The last time the IMF sent a delegation to a country was on April 15th when the IMF together with representatives from the EU and ECB took a jaunt over to Athens. A month later the country was insolvent. We can't wait for the official denial that this visit has nothing to do with the frozen Spanish liquidity market (like Greece), and that there is nothing to worry about (like Greece), only to end up with a full blown IMF rescue package of the Pyrenean country (just like Greece). This merely confirms the move in PIIGS spreads which despite the joke that is the market moved 10%+ wider on the day. The next domino is about to fall, and no matter how much rumored collusion between two French banks and the Federal Reserve is injected, the EURUSD is likely about to tank. At this point it is wisest to get out of any EURUSD longs, and finally follow Goldman's "advice."

I give them a month.

Tick... tick...

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When I was 15 I dated a girl - nothing unsual in that.

She went to live in Spain shortly after and I had no contact with her until a few months ago when she contacted me via that friendsreunited thing. Been married a few times, has adult kids whilst I am still trying to figure out whether I want any or not...

Anyhow, it is 30 years later and she is desperate to get out of Spain and back to the UK so bad is it out there - apparently.

Still waiting for someone to explain how Santander could buy up British banks if Spanish banking is more fecked than we are? More spin?

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Denial is one step closer to admitting you need help. Spain needs to bow the knee to its higher power (ECB) and seek help. You see, even the 12-step recovery program can work for nations!

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When I was 15 I dated a girl - nothing unsual in that.

She went to live in Spain shortly after and I had no contact with her until a few months ago when she contacted me via that friendsreunited thing. Been married a few times, has adult kids whilst I am still trying to figure out whether I want any or not...

Anyhow, it is 30 years later and she is desperate to get out of Spain and back to the UK so bad is it out there - apparently.

Still waiting for someone to explain how Santander could buy up British banks if Spanish banking is more fecked than we are? More spin?

IIRC, the Spanish banks were creating entities to buy up properties from themselves - and lending these entities the cash to do so - to prevent full market discovery of the price of their 'assets' and consequent complete destruction. That's clearly insane so I must be wrong, of course..

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Just remember folks, it is Spain (& any other country not called France or Germany) that will be the EZ (& EU?) killer.

You must remember this. It is vitally important that the Franco-German alliance is seen as the victim after all their selfless hard work within the European Community <_<

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100006253/can-you-guess-which-is-the-most-indebted-country-in-europe/

Can you guess which is the most indebted country in Europe?
By Edmund Conway Economics Last updated: June 15th, 2010
46 Comments Comment on this article
You might be tempted to assume Britain holds the dubious accolade of being the most indebted nation in Europe, when it comes to households. But, in cash terms at least the perhaps surprising answer is that German households owe more than any of their European neighbours. The evidence can be found in this recent European Parliament paper, and the chart which underlines this is this one.../
The chart below shows that
Spain has by far the most overextended households, with debts worth over 90pc of their annual disposable
income, followed by the UK at around 75pc. But it is striking that Germany actually has more overextended households than Greece, and although its position is improving (while others have seen their indebtedness worsening), it remains severely stretched.

My sister lives in Spain and said she is just starting to see BIG reductions in houses along the Costa Blanca. Hitherto its all been holiday and flat stuff that has been tanking with resistance in the more settled residential market. Not any more it seems as the rush to sell gets underway among the Spanish themselves.

Spain is going down and the OP is probably right--a matter of weeks before they need a bail out. Maybe a few days given the rate at which things are moving.

Edited by Realistbear

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Hitherto its all been holiday and flat stuff that has been tanking with resistance in the more settled residential market. Not any more it seems as the rush to sell gets underway among the Spanish themselves.

So the banks have been holding off repossessing limiting supply to limit the effect on their balance sheets but now the locals are now selling up instead, effectively undercutting the banks stock.

The market can only be rigged for so long and it's best to panic early.

VMR.

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Well, we all remember the official denials before Greece was "rescued", now we're getting this.

"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied" Sir Humphrey

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History never repeats Spain is fine, it's contained and they've enacted tough austerity measures.

Plus the Euro is recovering in value.

Yeah up nearly 5% against the greenback and yet no hysterical posts on hpc about the 'crashing USD' :lol:

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Any evidence of runs on Spanish banks yet?

IIRC the wealthy Greeks had their money out well before the bond crisis blew up, many buying property in London and fleeing to German banks and the Swissie.

It's still not clear to me what happens with UK deposits in Santander if the shtf. Why would anyone in the UK take the risk of a Northern Rock type run when the lender of last resort is first the Spanish CB, then Jean-Claude Trichet backed by Merkel and Sarkozy?

We've been here before with the Icelandic banks where even people on this board said there wasn't a problem and even if there was they thought the risk was worth it.

They must be bonkers.............

Edited by Red Karma

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1.23028

Euro is down 28% verses the US$ from peak at around 1.71. IIRC the Euro bottomed recently at around 1.18 so it has made a remarkable recovereh of around 4-5%.

It is difficult to see why the renewed confidence when you have a deteriorating financial situation in the PIIGS with only statements of denial as opposed to action coming from these embattled economies. Had the EU been the USE the situation would be different as you would then have a "too big to fail" scenario. As things stand in the EZ the Germans and French can let the PIIGS go wallow and still stay open for business themselves.

Edited by Realistbear

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IIRC, the Spanish banks were creating entities to buy up properties from themselves - and lending these entities the cash to do so - to prevent full market discovery of the price of their 'assets' and consequent complete destruction. That's clearly insane so I must be wrong, of course..

I thought someone posted clear evidence a few months back that UK banks have been doing this as well.

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I thought someone posted clear evidence a few months back that UK banks have been doing this as well.

It is happening check out

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=122299&st=0

Third from last post UNGEARED is a friend of mine this 100% true

I have a issue with Illius Property Services, I own a flat in East Sussex within a block of 4 other flats, three of us have purchased the freehold and I am Company Secretary, last month I received a renewal notice for the Buildings Insurance, split five ways equates to £129.

I have received 4 payments of £129, just one missing payment.....any guesses who?

Yep, Illius Property Services, I have written three letters to them obviously politely, but now, as I know this is a shell company for the Co-op (formerly Brittania) I am getting slightly pi$$ed off, if Joe Bloggs can pay, then why can't some ******* bank?

Apart from standing outside the address with a machine gun , has anyone got any information as to how I obtain payment with the minimal cost to myself?

Thanks in advance, one very pee'd off Company Secretary.

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Euro is down 28% verses the US$ from peak at around 1.71.

Nah, the top was 1.61 in April/may 2008

IIRC the Euro bottomed recently at around 1.18 so it has made a remarkable recovereh of around 4-5%.

More like a dead cat bounce. Sell dude, sell ;)

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It is happening check out

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=122299&st=0

Third from last post UNGEARED is a friend of mine this 100% true

I have a issue with Illius Property Services, I own a flat in East Sussex within a block of 4 other flats, three of us have purchased the freehold and I am Company Secretary, last month I received a renewal notice for the Buildings Insurance, split five ways equates to £129.

I have received 4 payments of £129, just one missing payment.....any guesses who?

Yep, Illius Property Services, I have written three letters to them obviously politely, but now, as I know this is a shell company for the Co-op (formerly Brittania) I am getting slightly pi$$ed off, if Joe Bloggs can pay, then why can't some ******* bank?

Apart from standing outside the address with a machine gun , has anyone got any information as to how I obtain payment with the minimal cost to myself?

Thanks in advance, one very pee'd off Company Secretary.

Write to them and tell them they are in default of the lease agreement, and if the monies are not recieved the flat will be taken back into ownership by the free holder.

This will force them to Pay.

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Write to them and tell them they are in default of the lease agreement, and if the monies are not recieved the flat will be taken back into ownership by the free holder.

This will force them to Pay.

Cheers ,he has actually got the money off them now ,it was just an anecdotal

to show banks have got shell companies buying up there own repo's.

It's happening ,I don't know to what extent but it is definitely happening.

edit:typo

Edited by Maddog21

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7833942/Spanish-debt-wilts-amid-250bn-rescue-plan-confusion.html

European debt markets remain under high stress on persistent reports that Spain is in secret talks with EU officials and the International Monetary Fund for a support package of up to €250bn (£208bn), the largest rescue in history.

The spreads on 10-year Spanish bonds jumped to a post-EMU high of 224 basis points above German Bunds as traders brace for a crucial auction by Madrid on Thursday. The relentless rise in bond yields replicates the pattern seen in Greece at the onset of crisis. Spain must raise €25bn of debt in a cluster of auctions in July.

"We're in a dangerous and stressful situation," said Gary Jenkins, a credit expert at Evolution Securities. "Spain is a big enough borrower to wipe out the EU's rescue fund."

Elena Salgado, Spain's finance minister, reacted angrily to a report in the Spanish daily El Economista claiming that the support plans are well advanced.

"It has been denied by the Spanish government, by the European Commission, and by the IMF. How much more can we deny it?" she said.

The story refuses to die, however. Three German newspapers have run similar stories over recent days, citing German sources. The markets are convinced that some form of contingency planning is underway.

"In our view there is absolutely no doubt that a backstop facility for Spain will be put in place should stress in the system remain," said Silvio Peruzzo, an economist at RBS,

El Economista said officials from the EU, the IMF, and the US Treasury had been discussing a credit line of €200bn to €250bn, dwarfing the €110bn package for Greece. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's managing director, reportedly called a secret meeting of the IMF's Board of Directors to tackle the crisis.

The loan terms would be softer than the draconian budget cuts imposed on Greece, with the lion's share of the money coming from eurozone states under their €750bn shield.

Mr Peruzzo said the facility was likely to resemble the IMF's Flexible Credit Line devised for Poland and Mexico. This is a "precautionary" credit for healthy borrowers facing a "cash crunch". The funds can be drawn at any time, without strings attached.

Mr Jenkins said it is unclear how the EU would finance a full rescue for Spain. Under the Greek formula, the EU-IMF ratio of aid is 8:3, implying an EU share of around €180bn – with a risk that the sums will escalate. The number of eurozone states available to fund the package is shrinking.

"The issue here is political risk. If they keep bailing out countries, it will mean printing money: that is not going to go down well in Germany," he said.

Theodora Zemek from AXA Investment Managers said any rescue will have knock-on effects on the credit ratings of donor states. "Germany and France risk going from AAA to AA," she said.

God it's like someone is deliberately trying to ruin a surprise party.

Can't people not speculate and just wait for the surprise of a Spanish rescue.

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Still waiting for someone to explain how Santander could buy up British banks if Spanish banking is more fecked than we are? More spin?

You know when Icelandic banks were buying up major British high street chains and it didn't quite seem to make sense or add up.

Well..............

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Guest Steve Cook

Just mentioned the coming crisis in spain in the closing moments of Newsnight

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Still waiting for someone to explain how Santander could buy up British banks if Spanish banking is more fecked than we are?

They bought them using their own shares.

By "buying" the UKs biggest mortgage providers and taking a huge share of the mortgage market, they leave the UK Gov no choice but to bail them out... which is something they need since spain can't print to bail out it's banks.

The Satander/NR/B&B/A&L merge was basically a huge scam to force britian to bail-out spains biggest bank.

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1.23028

Euro is down 28% verses the US$ from peak at around 1.71. IIRC the Euro bottomed recently at around 1.18 so it has made a remarkable recovereh of around 4-5%.

It is difficult to see why the renewed confidence when you have a deteriorating financial situation in the PIIGS with only statements of denial as opposed to action coming from these embattled economies. Had the EU been the USE the situation would be different as you would then have a "too big to fail" scenario. As things stand in the EZ the Germans and French can let the PIIGS go wallow and still stay open for business themselves.

To be fair to the Eurozone, they have a trade surplus ($4.5bn in March ).

Surely that is the bottom line in how a currency strength should be measured.

The US had a deficit of $40.3bn in April.

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To be fair to the Eurozone, they have a trade surplus ($4.5bn in March ).

Surely that is the bottom line in how a currency strength should be measured.

The US had a deficit of $40.3bn in April.

If Spain need a 250bn bailout the trade surplus starts to look a bit small.

I suspect the surplus is all "owned" by Germany which may be the only one left standing if they get out of the EU in time.

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If Spain need a 250bn bailout the trade surplus starts to look a bit small.

How would that affect the trade surplus?

If Spain need a 250bn bailout the trade surplus starts to look a bit small.

I suspect the surplus is all "owned" by Germany which may be the only one left standing if they get out of the EU in time.

I thought the Netherlands had a huge surplus as well. even more than Germany for it's size.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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