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This Could The The Trigger

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HIPS wont make or break house prices in general.

look to the employment figures and how business is doing here in comparison to other countries.

oh and interest rates

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I think hips is just an excuse here. From what I see in my area of Essex stock has been increasing by about 10% per month since march. In the 2 weeks after the hips announcement increases slowed slightly before taking up similar trend as before. From what I can see the increase in stock has been driven by underlying factors not relating to HIPS or CGT.

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Yes but they have gone up so much recently. Even a sharp drop will only take them back to just under 2007 peak. Prices here (London) are still high.

Joined: 10-June 10

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I use google reader to see new stuff on rightmove (very nice way of doing it)

4702761484_a3fbb4ecf7.jpg

But I don't see a sudden rise

what does this show? I don't understand it.

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HPI will continue provided the 2 essential ingredients are there:

1. Credit available to carry loans that exceed normal earnings criteria given that average prices are still 5 to 6 times average earnings.

2. Increasing levels of employment and higher wages to maintaining inflation in the property sector.

Both ingredients were present when the Brown bubble was forming and promises of boom only and no bust were being made.

IMO current prices are unsustainable and future prices will head down by around 40-50% from where they are today.

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Yes but they have gone up so much recently. Even a sharp drop will only take them back to just under 2007 peak. Prices here (London) are still high.

Yes, London and other hot markets have behaved much closer to an investment than a home (not surprising given 99% of people now view homes as an investment) and have just exhibited a double top. If you know what this means then you will know what will happen next.

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Yes but they have gone up so much recently. Even a sharp drop will only take them back to just under 2007 peak. Prices here (London) are still high.

I have to agree with you - doesn't matter whether you joined 5 years ago or last week. It is the same in my part of the World.

If house prices fell by 10% today, this very minute, they would still have asking prices higher than 2007. A 15% drop would bring asking prices in line with 2007 and obviously it would have to be much bigger to constitute a crash from 2007 prices.

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Yes, London and other hot markets have behaved much closer to an investment than a home (not surprising given 99% of people now view homes as an investment) and have just exhibited a double top. If you know what this means then you will know what will happen next.

People have been talking on here, and on financial sites, about a double top in the markets for month now. Still no crash...

TMT in 'ruddy hurry up and crash mode'.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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I have to agree with you - doesn't matter whether you joined 5 years ago or last week. It is the same in my part of the World.

If house prices fell by 10% today, this very minute, they would still have asking prices higher than 2007. A 15% drop would bring asking prices in line with 2007 and obviously it would have to be much bigger to constitute a crash from 2007 prices.

prices are easy 10% below peak in my area of Essex. Prime london commuter town too. Your just unlucky that your in one of the very few areas that held up.

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prices are easy 10% below peak in my area of Essex. Prime london commuter town too. Your just unlucky that your in one of the very few areas that held up.

I suspect those London commuters are a bit more economically aware and astute than my predominantly public sector lot down here.

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prices are easy 10% below peak in my area of Essex. Prime london commuter town too. Your just unlucky that your in one of the very few areas that held up.

Same in my area of north London.....more property on the market for sale, more people looking to leave. ;)

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prices are easy 10% below peak in my area of Essex. Prime london commuter town too. Your just unlucky that your in one of the very few areas that held up.

A tiny bit of a red letter day where I am - 7 of the 8 new properties within my search criteria notified by Primelocation were price drops. Cheered me up!

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I'm looking in London. I still see 'value' compared to start, mid 2007 in asking prices. There is some dross priced at 2007 prices, but it isn't selling. And I think you would be in a much better position to haggle with some of the more reasonably priced properties too.

What is now selling for more than 2007 prices? Prime property?

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I suspect those London commuters are a bit more economically aware and astute than my predominantly public sector lot down here.

them your fun will start after June 22nd :)

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them your fun will start after June 22nd :)

Plus the BoE just admitted that inflaction isn't likely to show any signs of slowing in the next six months. Downward pressure is building.

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HPI will continue provided the 2 essential ingredients are there:

1. Credit available to carry loans that exceed normal earnings criteria given that average prices are still 5 to 6 times average earnings.

Is this really true or just skewed by london/south east? What is the ratio if you exclude london + commuter belt?

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The main thrust if the article in the Independent is that more properties will come onto the market as sellers try to beat the expected CGT rise next April. Their motivation is to TAKE PROFITS, so that those profits cannot be taxed by the govt. Unless there are thousands of buyers waiting in the wings with 'pent up demand' coming out of their ears and hard cash in their pockets, those profits are going to be very hard to take. BTL is not going to take up the slack if the market is still high, but likely to fall and CGT is going to hammer their future capital gains. The banks are not going to be throwing easy money at FTBs without massive deposits.

The mentality of these 'forced sellers' is likely to be that they want top dollar for their property in order to crystalise their capital gains. They will live in denial about what they can achieve, and will chase the market down. There will be a big stand off with buyers waiting for the impending drops and the sellers hanging on for 'true value'. The April deadline might cause a flurry of activity in the spring as motivated sellers get more realistic. After the 5th April 2011 there will be total stagnation for a while as there is no benefit to sellers in selling after the deadline.

Investors will start looking for yield instead of capital gain, so commercial property is likely to be more attractive than residential, as the yields are traditionally higher. How about another massive boom in equities despite all the fundementals remaining pretty weak?

All of this with the backdrop of spending cuts in the UK, a stagnant economy and a Euro sovereign debt crisis, the risk of contagion and the possibility of a second banking crisis........................fun hey????? ;)

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what does this show? I don't understand it.

The blue is the one to look at - the number of new items in my chosen rss feed from rightmove - over time.

the yellow is me viewing them

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The blue is the one to look at - the number of new items in my chosen rss feed from rightmove - over time.

the yellow is me viewing them

You make charts of what you look at on the worldwide wobble? Any chance of seeing your porn chart?

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Just wondering if parents with cash to burn having sold their btl portfolios pre CGT increase are likely to act as Bank of Mum and Dad and provide big deposits for their kids, just to keep the house of cards standing for a bit longer?

Will we see FTBs with big parental deposits pouring in to 'snap up the bargains' before next April?

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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