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Confounded

Did They Prevent A Depression

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As per the title.

Please vote, I am interested to see what a years worth of propaganda has done for peoples optimism, last year I ran a similar poll and is was massively in the no camp.

Also comments and analysis welcome :-)

Edited by Confounded

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As per the title.

Please vote, I am interested to see what a years worth of propaganda has done for peoples optimism, last year I ran a similar poll and is was massively in the no camp.

Also comments and analysis welcome :-)

The way forward is to avoid fiat currencies.

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I wanted "Yes, but there is so much debt that we will get years of very slow, if any growth." Had to vote for Yes with the 'months' proviso.

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As per the title.

Please vote, I am interested to see what a years worth of propaganda has done for peoples optimism, last year I ran a similar poll and is was massively in the no camp.

Also comments and analysis welcome :-)

My view is if theyd taken the punishment in 2001 onwards after the tech boom we could have had a mild depression - similar severity to 30s but they didnt and ultimately made it alot deeper through a credit blowoff that sees us the most personally indebted in history. If theyd have taken it in 2008 we could have had a major depression but they didnt and now the govts have burnt future tax payers money that could have seen a faster recovery once bottom was hit. Now we will take the punishment over the next five years although it will likely run for decades with sh!t growth once the bottoms reached which will be a lower bottom as than it would have been had they taken the punishment earlier. As for a new name i would go with the great regression because thats what i think will happen to the social fabric, we are falling from a much higher level than the 30s, the differential in fall of living standards will be massive (much bigger than the 30s) and the majority simply wont accept it.

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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My view is that the depression is merely postponed.

June 22nd budget will be very interesting and will hopefully be a wake up call to the sheeple. The govt are putting a lot of propaganda in the media highting just how bad it really is and how much worse it is than expected and how it calls for a once in a generation overhall of the country's finances.

Then bring on the cuts and public sector job losses and we will be back to the 70s with the unions, marches and protests.

People will forget that it was down to Labour and blame the Tories, much like those that blame Thatcher and forget the shambles she inherited from the previous Labour govt.

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The global bailout of the banks has certainly prevented banking collapse. We will have to wait and see how bad things get from here on in. The UK government may have a easier ride than some of the other Europeans but nevertheless the stimulus needed to fall over time. The UK's problem remains the indebtedness of its moronic citizens and their absurd religious belief in HPI as the only vehicle to make money. I don't think any government can save the UK from the very unpleasant crash that will happen as property begins to fall in value. I don't know if this will be a "depression" - it will feel like it I'm sure. The present government seem to want it. Perhaps they think if it happens soon enough they can blame the last government. Judging by the stupidity of many posters on here it seems a reasonable plan.

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My view is if theyd taken the punishment in 2001 onwards after the tech boom we could have had a mild depression - similar severity to 30s but they didnt and ultimately made it alot deeper through a credit blowoff that sees us the most personally indebted in history. If theyd have taken it in 2008 we could have had a major depression but they didnt and now the govts have burnt future tax payers money that could have seen a faster recovery once bottom was hit. Now we will take the punishment over the next five years although it will likely run for decades with sh!t growth once the bottoms reached which will be a lower bottom as than it would have been had they taken the punishment earlier. As for a new name i would go with the great regression because thats what i think will happen to the social fabric, we are falling from a much higher level than the 30s, the differential in fall of living standards will be massive (much bigger than the 30s) and the majority simply wont accept it.

+1,

Have to agree.Only massive debt growth stopped the depression a decade ago.Wage growth has been minus for years in most "normal" jobs.Only debt fuelled public sector jobs hace seen growth and high end jobs.Two prongs stretched it out.Middle Class mewing on a huge scale along with credit,and lower down massive welfare spending mainly on tax credits.

Both prongs are about to be removed.The days of the middle class spending 20k a year of equity are over.The days of a single mum of 3 working 16 hours in a chip shop and getting £400 a week are over.To me it would of been so much better to take the hit early.Deflation would of helped the lower paid etc as it brought the economy into line with real earnings.Instead government spending and rampant borrowing by consumers has made the problem many many times worse.

To me there can be only one outcome.Massive deflation in assets,high inflation in basics,huge drops in living standards.Massive defaults.

In the 30s wages fell 30% but prices fell 20%,,this time around wages are falling but prices in food etc rising and rising alongside tax.

IMO this will see the total collapse of the welfare system and as you named it so well a great regression.

For anyone with little or no debt and used to living within their means i think itl be difficult but theyl get through.For people used to the high life for little effort and the huge mortgages/credit they are in for a disaster.

I know many people who sold nice little houses over the last few years that theyd had for a decade .One example.A couple sold their house they had for 15 years for 110k with a £25k mortgage and bought the big "exec" house 2 years ago for £245k with £150k mortgage.The house has dropped to £180k already wiping out almost 15 years of equity and capital payments.They work in the public sector.

From a position of being nearly mortgage free if one loses their job theyl be bankrupt within a year.Millions did this and are in a similar position.

This thing is just starting IMO.

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I wanted "Yes, but there is so much debt that we will get years of very slow, if any growth." Had to vote for Yes with the 'months' proviso.

My vote too.

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As for a new name i would go with the great regression because thats what i think will happen to the social fabric, we are falling from a much higher level than the 30s, the differential in fall of living standards will be massive (much bigger than the 30s) and the majority simply wont accept it.

...without a fight.

In the end they will accept it, because the unsustainable cannot be sustained.

Humans are pretty good at adapting - when they have to. It's easy to forget after hundreds of years of rising living standards in the West that we are still the same species as those who live happily in mud huts in the Amazon rainforest.

Tomorrow's children will know only the world from 2010 onwards.

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define depression

Debt deflation causing those who borrowed to owe ever more in real terms relative to their earning potential.Money supply unable to keep up with debt/wealth deflation.

In Uk terms having to default on the DFS sofa and SKY Sports.

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we are falling from a much higher level than the 30s, the differential in fall of living standards will be massive (much bigger than the 30s)

presumably as a result some other peoples standard of living is going to be on the rise. Who and why?

and the majority simply wont accept it.

I think people will accept it or come to accept it over time. What they won't accept is the kind of inequality we have seen the last 30 years. And that means the top creamy layers of what would once have been referred to as the bourgeoisie have a lot further to fall than everyone else.

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Tomorrow's children will know only the world from 2010 onwards.

Very true, much like Labour's children, who are used to easy credit, reckless spending, benefits and the country owing them a living.

I grew up under Thatcher when the mantle drummed into me by my folks was if you want to get somewhere in life then the only way is to work hard for it, macdonalds was a special treat and never ever use credit cards

What will tomorrow's children learn I wonder?

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presumably as a result some other peoples standard of living is going to be on the rise. Who and why?

Why can't everyones standard of living fall?

I think people will accept it or come to accept it over time. What they won't accept is the kind of inequality we have seen the last 30 years. And that means the top creamy layers of what would once have been referred to as the bourgeoisie have a lot further to fall than everyone else.

I think you are right in the aim of more equality that people will want - I am also pretty cure they will pick a methodology that ensures the inequality gets worse, not better.

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Why can't everyones standard of living fall?

I think you are right in the aim of more equality that people will want - I am also pretty cure they will pick a methodology that ensures the inequality gets worse, not better.

post 1929 inequality started falling and didn't rise again until 1980. What really reduced inequality was WWII.

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post 1929 inequality started falling and didn't rise again until 1980. What really reduced inequality was WWII.

Yes as the welfare state kicked in inequality fell.BUT it was always a ponzi scheme.To pay for it tax (and debt) was added at every turn that ended up making the mid-range jobs ordinary people did move abroad.In turn this meant higher welfare payments and the process speeded up until we get to......now!

The welfare state is about to collapse.Slow or fast are the only options.Or war.

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post 1929 inequality started falling and didn't rise again until 1980. What really reduced inequality was WWII.

ok - so why can't everyones standard of living fall was my question and your answer was WW2 - which means, that yes everyones standard of lviing can fall.

And you also think that when measuring inequality we don't have to include the people in the state as part of the total, because your insane proposition about WW2 reducing inequality doesn't make any sense otherwise.

Which is why i am sure people will pick a methodology that makes inequality worse, not better.

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The welfare state is about to collapse.

that will only happen if democracy collapses.

There are two options for our future:

social democracy which is not defined by capitalism

dictatorship

those are the options for you.

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ok - so why can't everyones standard of living fall

sure that can happen, its called a collapse. So us, the chinese, the yanks, the europeans, the africans, the south americans, asians etc etc we all just get poorer.

however its not obvious to me why that would happen. Sure if we were running out of oil or food right now I could see that collapse. But the issue at the moment seems to be semi-imaginary claims on future income.

a moderate drop in standards of living (say 30%) in the west spread over a decade or two and with all the while decreasing inequality in the west doesn't seem to be anything too much to worry about.

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that will only happen if democracy collapses.

There are two options for our future:

social democracy which is not defined by capitalism

dictatorship

those are the options for you.

We are getting collapse and dictatorship.

The options are between free markets and coerced ones and the general public will scream for coerced ones.

98.76%, guaranteed.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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