Growth Forecast Downgraded

[Oliver Sutton]

Economy unexpectedly in worst state than thought .

Fiscal watchdog set to downgrade UK growth forecast

The new UK fiscal watchdog is expected to downgrade the previous Labour government's growth estimates later.

Analysts say the Office for Budget Responsibility will say ex-Chancellor Alistair Darling's 2011 forecast of more than 3% was too optimistic.

The independent body's first set of figures will set the tone for the emergency Budget on 22 June.

BBC economics editor Stephanie Flanders says it could mean a larger hole in public finances than thought.

I think anyone on here could have told them that as soon as it was announced.

[Guest sillybear2]

Is anyone surprised, we didn't even manage 3.5% trend growth during the bubble era, let alone in today's debt repayment cycle. Labour used to do budgets by spreadsheet, they typed in the result they needed then messed with all the other figures until they got what they wanted, the growth figures were just a bull$hit function to make their unsustainable debt and deficit figures look manageable.

Does Darling still want his big apology?

Edited June 14, 2010 by sillybear2

[Oliver Sutton]

Is anyone surprised, we didn't even manage 3.5% trend growth during the bubble era, let alone in today's debt repayment cycle. Labour used to do budgets by spreadsheet, they typed in the result they needed then messed with all the other figures until they got what they wanted, the growth figures were just a bull$hit function to make their unsustainable debt and deficit figures look manageable.

Does Darling still want his big apology?

It's good in that it will give the New Toffs justification to cut even deeper.

[Guest sillybear2]

It's good in that it will give the New Toffs justification to cut even deeper.

The alternative being running out of things to tax.

[interestrateripoff]

Unexpected.

[GordonBrownSpentMyFuture]

Unexpected.

Totally.

[Oliver Sutton]

Soory, had a look for another thread but couldn't see it. Mods to merge?

[trekking]

Economy unexpectedly in worst state than thought .

Fiscal watchdog set to downgrade UK growth forecast

I think anyone on here could have told them that before it was announced.

Corrected. :-)

[Oliver Sutton]

Corrected. :-)

I meant ,when Darling first announced them.

I remember laughing out loud myself.

[moonriver]

Unexpected.

Remarkable how many times this word keeps cropping up.

[CrashConnoisseur]

It's good in that it will give the New Toffs justification to cut even deeper.

Which is one reason why growth will be less than previously predicted by the Darling Dud of Dismay.

[Guest sillybear2]

Which is one reason why growth will be less than previously predicted by the Darling Dud of Dismay.

What was his plan, to use the government to make everyone rich? Yeah, I see no logical flaw in that argument.

[Timm]

(...)

Does Darling still want his big apology?

If this is confirmed, I expect Darling to be apologising to Cameron.

He did after all call him a liar.

[trekking]

I meant ,when Darling first announced them.

I remember laughing out loud myself.

I did the same myself :-)

Talk about wishful thinking. The last set of growth figures just made it slightly more than zero.

[Oliver Sutton]

I did the same myself :-)

Talk about wishful thinking. The last set of growth figures just made it slightly more than zero.

IIRC they were even higher when Darling announced them at 3.5%

Allowed them to spend even more in the run-up to the election.

[moonriver]

If this is confirmed, I expect Darling to be apologising to Cameron.

He did after all call him a liar.

Darling has just been on the Politics show, and basically he is not backing down about this, because he says, he has just been shown to be correct with his figures, because the latest borrowing figures and tax revenues show that they have indeed got better. They have not got worse, as Cameron was suggesting last week, he said.

When questioned about his growth figures, he said they still look about right for 2010 (+1.5%), but for the next year, he admitted we were likely to see more "downward pressure" in growth, that he could not have predicted back in March, because he had been over optomistic about Europe then, and it is only now we have had problems with EU and the Euro.

So there you go, we were told it started in American, and now it is Europe's fault.

[Timm]

Darling has just been on the Politics show, and basically he is not backing down about this, because he says, he has just been shown to be correct with his figures, because the latest borrowing figures and tax revenues show that they have indeed got better. They have not got worse, as Cameron was suggesting last week, he said.

When questioned about his growth figures, he said they still look about right for 2010 (+1.5%), but for the next year, he admitted we were likely to see more "downward pressure" in growth, that he could not have predicted back in March, because he had been over optomistic about Europe then, and it is only now we have had problems with EU and the Euro.

So there you go, we were told it started in American, and now it is Europe's fault.

So he's essentially saying there is an temporary upwards blip on an otherwise increasingly downwards trajectory? And he wants an apology because Cameron failed to report the blip?

[R K]

Darling has just been on the Politics show, and basically he is not backing down about this, because he says, he has just been shown to be correct with his figures, because the latest borrowing figures and tax revenues show that they have indeed got better. They have not got worse, as Cameron was suggesting last week, he said.

When questioned about his growth figures, he said they still look about right for 2010 (+1.5%), but for the next year, he admitted we were likely to see more "downward pressure" in growth, that he could not have predicted back in March, because he had been over optomistic about Europe then, and it is only now we have had problems with EU and the Euro.

So there you go, we were told it started in American, and now it is Europe's fault.

The first Euro banks 'crisis'/sell off was in Jan/Feb.

He's lying out of his ar5e. The only genuine skill labour MPs possess.

[Hip to be bear]

In his piece to the BBC, Osborne does not come across as a competent Chancellor with a strong grasp on the facts and figures and the ability to manage our economy and finances. Instead he bleats the same old anti labour line to any question asked of him. "Politicians can no longer fiddle the figures.............labour lies"............can't answer the question about the smaller deficit than expected. Much as I despise Labour's handling of the economy, George is looking way out of his depth!

He actually looks and acts like he is still in opposition!

[moonriver]

Here is the link to Darling's interview today.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8739198.stm

Alistair Darling: 'I was always very cautious'

"Former Chancellor Alistair Darling said the revised economic figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) meant the 'cover' for the new government to put up VAT taxes has gone.

The OBR found economic growth forecasts by the Labour government in March were too optimistic, but added the level of government borrowing in the current financial year will be lower than expected.

The Labour MP said he was 'always very cautious' about government income, and Tory MP David Davis joins in the debate."

[Guest sillybear2]

Darling is utterly shameless, they totally f**k up the finances, more than double the national debt run a 11% deficit and we're now meant to be thanking him because the deficit is £156bn instead of £162bn, a difference which is utter chump change given the debt interest bill alone.

If NuLabour see this present situation as a triumph I don't want to even know what they consider a disaster.

[zebbedee]

Remarkable how many times this word keeps cropping up.

Unexpectedly

[Guest sillybear2]

In his piece to the BBC, Osborne does not come across as a competent Chancellor with a strong grasp on the facts and figures and the ability to manage our economy and finances. Instead he bleats the same old anti labour line to any question asked of him. "Politicians can no longer fiddle the figures.............labour lies"............can't answer the question about the smaller deficit than expected. Much as I despise Labour's handling of the economy, George is looking way out of his depth!

He actually looks and acts like he is still in opposition!

The only thing that matters is whether he can deliver the goods, his proficiency at spinning or lying compared to the old crew is neither here nor there, the figures don't lie and the truth will always out, look at Greece.

[bendy]

No surprise here – the worrying thing is that growth is still being predicted.

That’s one point to the inflationists tbh.

[huw]

Better-than-expected current debt numbers = short-term.

Worse-than-expected growth prediction = long term.

Obviously New Labour will be emphasising the former