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Eric Blair

Gulf Oil Blowout -- Msm Now Reporting Doomsday Scenario

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All of the information in this post was gathered from numerous sources over the last 50 days of this disaster, and much of it is contained in posts on this blog. For brevity's sake I'm not going to go back and research each article to cite the original source. Please do so at your convenience. This is a summary of what's known and accepted by me at this time to be most factually accurate, not the deceptions and omissions being put forth by BP and the Federal Government. Do not trust my judgement or opinions, research this for yourself and arrive at your own conclusions.

The reservoir that BP drilled into at 2.4 miles below the ocean’s surface, pictured at bottom of the graphic, is estimated to contain 15,000,000,000 barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of methane and frozen methyl hydrate. The estimated pressure within the reservoir is 120,000 PSI, while the pressure at the drilling head on the ocean floor is 12,000 PSI. The different pressures, when contrasted, are called “pressure differentials.” Areas of different pressure will naturally attempt to reach a balanced state of equilibrium when exposed to each other. (Example: have you ever shaken a full soda can/bottle with the cap still on, then released the cap? The “explosion” of liquid and gas is the transfer to equilibrium of the differential pressures within the bottle and the surrounding atmosphere. Popping a balloon is another, and more ominously relevant, example.)

Before BP drilled a hole into it, the reservoir was contained by over 2 miles of earth and rock under enormous pressure, forming an impenetrable, solid barrier and keeping the oil and methane within the reservoir. BP’s drill created a hole in the top of the reservoir, which allowed escaping methane gas to rapidly escape through the bore pipe to the surface rig, where it instantly exploded. Methane gas and oil, along with surrounding dirt and rocks has since poured unabated up the bore pipe and into the ocean, propelled by the 120,000 PSI pressure within the reservoir.

Now, imagine a funnel. Visualize it’s shape- a large round reservoir, with a long, tapering column. Now invert it. That’s roughly the shape at the top of the reservoir- where the well head is- as the oil, rock, and methane are forced upward. The narrow funnel part, though, is being degraded by the escaping oil/methane/methyl hydrate, rock and dirt from below, creating a larger and larger “funnel”- this thing is literally eating it's way towards the surface, making the narrow funnel tube larger and larger, and increasing the escape flow rate, which in turn accelerates the entire process. The bore pipe has seriously corroded from all the passing rocks, dirt, gas and oil, and cannot be fixed.

Additionally, the escaping oil is following geological fractures along fault lines, creating mini-leaks wherever it finds a weak spot. As the enlarging funnel increases flow rate these weak spots can be expected to fracture further, increasing leaks significantly, some miles away from the original rupture.

The relief wells being drilled are designed to tap into the existing 21" interior diameter borepipe at an angle, and nearly 1 3/4 miles below the ocean floor. By the time they reach that depth the funnel shape will have been enlarged to a massive cavern, not the 21” diameter bore pipe hole they’re pretending they intend to seal, and the escaping flow rate will be many times higher than their ability to cap it.

At some point the relentless underground pressure of 120,000 PSI will overcome whatever resistance is left along the bore pipeline hole, and may vent nearly unchecked into the atmosphere at sea level. Frozen methyl hydrate expands as a vapor of methane to 26 times it’s frozen size. It’s also remarkably flammable. What trillions of cubic feet of methane igniting simultaneously is something I cannot visualize, since nothing like this has ever occurred before anywhere on this planet. The simultaneous release of 15,000,000,000 barrels of oil is, likewise, inconceivable. Another view is that instead of an instantaneous detonation, the process may be very long and drawn out. Matthew Simmons, a 30 year long expert in this field, has said it may take 30 years for the reservoir to exhaust itself. It's also possible that the geological formations of the reservoir could collapse, sealing the leak naturally. The truth is that no one knows what will happen because we've never faced anything like this before.

BP, and the government, know all this. They cannot, and will not, reveal the true extent of this catastrophe for fear of a breakdown of civil order, public panic, massive uncontrolled population migration, loss of effective control, as well as the very real possibility of violence against BP and governmental facilities and personnel.

This is a possible explanation for the questions many are asking: why is the military not taking charge of this operation, an obvious national emergency, and bringing in ships and resources as quickly as possible? Why aren't other oil companies offering manpower, equipment and technical expertise? And why is the so-called "clean up" operation so pathetically underfunded and mismanaged? The potential threat of an unprecedented, total blowout at this site would answer those questions: why expose these resources to near-certain destruction, if they can provide no real benefit or solution to the problem?

This summary is my personal opinion, based on the information available. These conclusions may be wrong, in fact, I pray they are. But we're dealing with clearly defined and valid laws of physics here, with predictable consequences. Please, prove me wrong.
- CoyotePrime

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so, the government issued a licence for driller to allow the cheapest tenderer to dig on its behalf into potentially the most dangerous of situations imaginable.

bring on the Large Hadron Collider.

Federal Laws also are hampering efforts.

I blame the regulator.

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so, the government issued a licence for driller to allow the cheapest tenderer to dig on its behalf into potentially the most dangerous of situations imaginable.

bring on the Large Hadron Collider.

Federal Laws also are hampering efforts.

I blame the regulator.

Large Hadron Collider - even as we speak Stargate Command are busy trying to stop an event horizon which is slowly expanding on the Swis/French border.

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The doomsday scenario has been referred to on this forum a number of times over the last several weeks, only for posters to get flamed for being doom-mongers who relish bad news and with no ability to see what a wonderful job BP are doing.

Matt Simmons of Simmons & Co has been saying for some time now that there is a major leak several miles away from the riser and forecasting that this could go on for a lot longer than the months leading up to August this year.

By which time of course the oil will be not just around the tip of Florida but well into the Atlantic courtesy of the Gulf Stream.

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I'm not 100% sure all the science in that article is accurate. <_<

Since there's a bloody big hole for all the crude to escape out of, why would there suddenly be leaks in 'fault lines.' It would go to point of least resistance I'd say.

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Large Hadron Collider - even as we speak Stargate Command are busy trying to stop an event horizon which is slowly expanding on the Swis/French border.

Event Horizon..Deepwater Horizon....Both Exploring the boundaries of Human Space.....Evil from the Event Horizon comes to Earth...I see a parallel.

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Guest anorthosite

The doomsday scenario has been referred to on this forum a number of times over the last several weeks,

The doomsday scenario is always referred to by a number of members on this forum, no matter what the subject. They had to be right eventually, although I'm not convinced yet that they are here.

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So America lives by oil and could die by oil, you have to admit there is a grim poetry about that possibility.

Dont worry, they are quite safe.

the Penpushers at the Coastguard have today written to BP claiming BP are not doing enough and they now have 48 hours to submit plans to do more...as reported by the Beeb just now.

so there. the pen is mightier than the sword.

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Now, imagine a funnel. Visualize it’s shape- a large round reservoir, with a long, tapering column. Now invert it. That’s roughly the shape at the top of the reservoir- where the well head is- as the oil, rock, and methane are forced upward. The narrow funnel part, though, is being degraded by the escaping oil/methane/methyl hydrate, rock and dirt from below, creating a larger and larger “funnel”- this thing is literally eating it's way towards the surface, making the narrow funnel tube larger and larger, and increasing the escape flow rate, which in turn accelerates the entire process. The bore pipe has seriously corroded from all the passing rocks, dirt, gas and oil, and cannot be fixed.

Additionally, the escaping oil is following geological fractures along fault lines, creating mini-leaks wherever it finds a weak spot. As the enlarging funnel increases flow rate these weak spots can be expected to fracture further, increasing leaks significantly, some miles away from the original rupture.

The relief wells being drilled are designed to tap into the existing 21" interior diameter borepipe at an angle, and nearly 1 3/4 miles below the ocean floor. By the time they reach that depth the funnel shape will have been enlarged to a massive cavern, not the 21” diameter bore pipe hole they’re pretending they intend to seal, and the escaping flow rate will be many times higher than their ability to cap it.

I'm not sure I believe this bit. The borehole's supposed to be 21" across and 2.4 miles long, which makes its length more than 7200 times its breadth, so that means that it has the same kind of proportions as a human hair 72cm long. Somehow this is supposed to collapse along its entire length, leading to a huge channel leading to the ocean floor. Now I don't think the oil's just occupying a huge void in the earth's crust; I think oil's usually trapped inside porous rock like sandstone. So the rock that has to vanish to form the "vast cavern" referred to in the OP isn't going to fall down the hole: it'll have to escape upwards through the hole. That seems to be what he's claiming will happen, but it seems unlikely: you'd need huge amounts of rock to be propelled up the borehole before the scenario he describes can occur. He makes a lot of statements about what's going on inside the borehole, but he doesn't give any evidence for them, apart from suggesting that we read all of the rest of his blog.

I'm just making all this up based on an extremely superficial understanding of what's going on. Anyone know any better?

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Guest theboltonfury

Funny that the first time a foreign state causes an environmental f*ck up ythey go mental, yet they don't mind about all the other ones they've caused in their pursuit of oil.

The oil Gods are having their retribution.

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Guest X-QUORK

The doomsday scenario is always referred to by a number of members on this forum, no matter what the subject. They had to be right eventually, although I'm not convinced yet that they are here.

Each thread should end up with a doomsday scenario, even my cement poll.

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Guest theboltonfury

Each thread should end up with a doomsday scenario, even my cement poll.

They do. Either that or a picture of Kenneth ******ing Williams.

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The pen may be mightier than the sword but this isn't a sword-pen fight. Gaia it transpires is mightier than all the pens and the swords put together.

I think the CoastGuard should a very stiff letter to Gaia, and tell her to eat properly to cut down on internal gases.

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15,000,000,000 barrels of oil

So what's the fine $1500 a barrel? And around $4500 if it's negligent.

BP got that money?

thats about a Goldman Sachs Bonus pool.

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some more doom for you all (albeit from a dubious source -- godlikeproductions). it does seem horribly plausible though.

godlikeproductions forum link

In my opinion BP and our Govt have not been forthcoming about what is really is going on with this well and the situation we will likely face. Understandably they would not want to create panic, but we also need to prepare for this oil leak getting worse, ignoring the reality that there is good chance it will get worse leaves us vulnerable. Just like we shutter up before a hurricane we should be preparing now because we know that if we don't, we are going to sustain far more damage than if we did.

I'm not going to get into the oil remediation aspect or the control of the already released oil nor the politics involved in the overall situation other than to say we need to prepare for the worst and should be doing that now. I want to cover the mechanics of what is going on now at the well subsea and what has happened and what the results tell us. Since we are not getting very much clear information about what those results or lack of results mean, I think it's important for everyone to know what is happening and the possibilities of what may come.

As you have probably seen and maybe feel yourselves, there are several things that do not appear to make sense regarding the actions of attack against the well. Don't feel bad, there is much that doesn't make sense even to professionals unless you take into account some important variables that we are not being told about. There seems to me to be a reluctance to face what cannot be termed anything less than grim circumstances in my opinion. There certainly is a reluctance to inform us regular people and all we have really gotten is a few dots here and there...in this post I hope to connect some of those dots and show where we are headed...

First of all...set aside all your thoughts of plugging the well and stopping it from blowing out oil using any method from the top down. Plugs, big valves to just shut it off, pinching the pipe closed, installing a new bop or lmrp, shooting any epoxy in it, top kills with mud etc etc etc....forget that, it won't be happening..it's done and over. In fact actually opening up the well at the subsea source and allowing it to gush more is not only exactly what has happened, it was probably necessary, or so they think anyway.

So you have to ask WHY? Why make it worse?...there really can only be one answer and that answer does not bode well for all of us. It's really an inescapable conclusion at this point, unless you want to believe that every Oil and Gas professional involved suddenly just forgot everything they know or woke up one morning and drank a few big cups of stupid and got assigned to directing the response to this catastrophe. Nothing makes sense unless you take this into account, but after you do...you will see the "sense" behind what has happened and what is happening. That conclusion is this:

The well bore structure is compromised "Down hole".

[...]

What does this mean?

It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad,

same dynamics. It is why they sawed the riser off...or tried to anyway...but they clipped it off, to relieve pressure on the leaks "down hole". I'm sure there was a bit of panic time after they crimp/pinched off the large riser pipe and the Diamond wire saw got stuck and failed...because that crimp diverted pressure and flow to the rupture down below.

Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons.

There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

[...]

What is likely to happen now?

Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it....I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens...

We are seeing the puny forces of man vs the awesome forces of nature.

We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...

and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will....

Godspeed, we surely need it...

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It's also possible that the geological formations of the reservoir could collapse, sealing the leak naturally.

What is the pressure of the water at that depth?

I like the idea of the russian bomb plan to seal it of. I took an angle grinder to what was, i was pretty sure, an empty butane cylinder the other day. Nerve racking experience. I imagine setting a bomb off on that lot would be similar but a little more :unsure:

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The relief wells being drilled are designed to tap into the existing 21" interior diameter borepipe at an angle, and nearly 1 3/4 miles below the ocean floor. By the time they reach that depth the funnel shape will have been enlarged to a massive cavern, not the 21” diameter bore pipe hole they’re pretending they intend to seal, and the escaping flow rate will be many times higher than their ability to cap it.

Where has all the rock that originally occupied that massive cavern actually gone ?

Anyone ?

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Where has all the rock that originally occupied that massive cavern actually gone ?

Anyone ?

Part removed by the drilling, and part eroded away by the flow of oil/gas/sand at high speed as the well gushes. The post EricBlair put up has appeared on www.oildrum.com now.

Look for comment from DougR

This is the Chernobyl of the oil world.

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Part removed by the drilling, and part eroded away by the flow of oil/gas/sand at high speed as the well gushes. The post EricBlair put up has appeared on www.oildrum.com now.

Look for comment from DougR

This is the Chernobyl of the oil world.

Why would they create a massive cavern underground while drilling ? This would just reduce the well pressure and its ability to produce. So "part removed by the drilling" makes no sense to me. Unless of course you're refering to the tiny central bit of the "massive cavern" that was removed during the initial drill.

If there was a cavern being eroded underground then I would expect all the excavated debris to be pushed up and block the relatively small borehole quite quickly. The well would almost self extinguish itself in this scenario.

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Why are we even bothering to discuss this?

I have it on good authority it's no biggie

Pick It Down, on 27 May 2010 - 09:46 PM, said:

These things recover exceptionally well, I really wouldn't lose sleep over it.

Panic over then, move along now, nothing to see here

2Frank_Drebin.jpg

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Part removed by the drilling, and part eroded away by the flow of oil/gas/sand at high speed as the well gushes. The post EricBlair put up has appeared on www.oildrum.com now.

Look for comment from DougR

This is the Chernobyl of the oil world.

Just been reading the oildrum comments, which seem generally supportive of this analysis.

This is scary, very scary. :(

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Just to repeat ...

:lol:

(EDIT: I don't know if I'm laughing nervously.)

Durch, if the deep well failure postulated above is true, laughing nervously is all we can do. :o

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So I think this bloke is telling us the entire structure around the borehole may collapse soon ? Is that the jist of what he is saying ?

And if it happens then the oil will just pour out in massive amounts - and be unstoppable for year and years ? :ph34r:

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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