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GloomMonger

Is Hpc In A Bubble?

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I've been thinking about this recently.

Maybe, just maybe everything will be ok.

HPC is a receptacle of doom. News stories are collected here from all over the world, and the majority are from pessimistic sources to fit our hpc desires.

Are we getting a true picture of the world economy?

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I've been thinking about this recently.

Maybe, just maybe everything will be ok.

HPC is a receptacle of doom. News stories are collected here from all over the world, and the majority are from pessimistic sources to fit our hpc desires.

Are we getting a true picture of the world economy?

I think you are partially right, regarding the "world" economy". But the UK is seriously and deeply fecked.

The world will be OKish soon-ishly. Most countries in the world have a cold. Some have a flu. But Japan and Britain have pneumonia. Look at the 2 charts below.

McK%205.jpg

debt-sovereign.png

We are screwed for at least a decade, maybe 2, and we will never catchup with countries we thought were our "peers", such as France, Germany, and even Italy. Even Brazil will overtake us in a couple of years. We will fall to about 10th place/economy in about 5 years. Sorry.

Source: Mckinsey Institute. Link to the full report below (in PDF). The chart in question is on page 10.

http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/debt_and_deleveraging/debt_and_deleveraging_full_report.pdf

PS: Note that at the end of 2003 the total debt was almost peaking. But in Dec 2003 Chancellor Brown changed the inflation index, from RPI to CPI, despite BoE's opposition, forcing the BoE to keep interest rates too low. Yes, it was mainly Gordon Brown's fault.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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We need to grow our way out of this. Everyone being unemployed is part of the problem, no solution.

Exactly.

That is why we need to reduce the government annual budget deficit. Or we will be in even deeper trouble.

I've replied to your similar point in another thread:

:lol: You are confusing "the economy" with "the public sector".

Some people in the recent past kept making the same mistake. :lol:

Look hilltop, of course every government in history always wanted and always will want to grow the economy. Both the right and the left. It would be collective masochism to wish otherwise, and political suicide.

Even the Labour party agreed that they had to reduce the annual government deficit (shortfall), and on a similar base: by 2/3 cuts and 1/3 tax increases, starting in April 2011. The coalition wants to reduce it by 80% cuts and 20% tax increases, with 6bn cuts this fiscal year. Not much of a difference there.

Why? Because if you don't reduce the annual deficit and keep borrowing at this rate, the "market" (our lenders, BTW) will start to charge a higher risk premium to lend to us. Interest rates will go up, and the economic crisis - and job losses - would be much worse!

Why people chose to do a bad thing? Because the alternative is worse!

Is that too difficult to und4rstand ?! ?! ?!

( For goodness sake hilltop, you reminded me of yesterday's audience of "Question Time"! )

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I've been thinking about this recently.

Maybe, just maybe everything will be ok.

HPC is a receptacle of doom. News stories are collected here from all over the world, and the majority are from pessimistic sources to fit our hpc desires.

Are we getting a true picture of the world economy?

Please feel free to find positive news that isn't based on crap and post it. RB posted about Chinese exports up 50% didn't you find that positive enough? Of course the article didn't give any real info ie what exports where in 2008, 2009 and 2010 so you could see what the improvement was.

I'm all for good news but is has to be real and not ramping bu115h1t.

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Are we getting a true picture of the world economy?

Go talk to your friends and family. How many had a pay rise this year? How many are expecting a pay rise next year?

That which is unsustainable will not be sustained.

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(...)

That which is unsustainable will not be sustained.

That is it.

I just hope that the new Con-Lib government gets it, and stop trying to support house prices, and allows the correction to happen, as fast as possible.

The other question is: how fast can it be done, without breaking too many banks? And without the media and sheeple turning too strongly against the government?

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Guest theboltonfury

Go talk to your friends and family. How many had a pay rise this year? How many are expecting a pay rise next year?

That which is unsustainable will not be sustained.

My best mate got a record order yesterday for over a million dollars. He's in manufacturing.

I too am also having my most financially productive year for a while.

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That is it.

I just hope that the new Con-Lib government gets it, and stop trying to support house prices, and allows the correction to happen, as fast as possible.

The other question is: how fast can it be done, without braking too many banks? And without the media and sheeple turns too strongly against the government?

growth and cutting spending..same as any other household. we need a second job.

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The answer is simple. We are still living in Brown's world and Cameron has not yet had time to initiate any changes. Brown was deluding us all into thinking the bubble was part of the no more boom and bust in relating to house prices. That delusion is about to end and is already at an end.

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My best mate got a record order yesterday for over a million dollars. He's in manufacturing.

I too am also having my most financially productive year for a while.

Export linked, somehow (either directly or indirectly) ?

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Export linked, somehow (either directly or indirectly) ?

he might have sold a coffee in Zimbabwe. The Fury is not clear.

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The answer is simple. We are still living in Brown's world and Cameron has not yet had time to initiate any changes. Brown was deluding us all into thinking the bubble was part of the no more boom and bust in relating to house prices. That delusion is about to end and is already at an end.

Let's see the budget.

My main hope is that they will have to plan for their re-election. They will need some signs of a recovery by 2015. And, economically, the only way they can have some chance of having that, is to do/allow the correction as strongly and as fast as possible, in these first 2 or 3 years of their government.

I just hope they know that.

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Let's see the budget.

My main hope is that they will have to plan for their re-election. They will need some signs of a recovery by 2015. And, economically, the only way they can have some chance of having that, is to do/allow the correction as strongly and as fast as possible, in these first 2 or 3 years of their government.

I just hope they know that.

I agree and me too.

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Sorry, but I didn't get that.

I think a coffee costs around a million zim dollars in Zimbabwe.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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