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Roseland69

House Prices "heading For Double Dip"

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"Transactions at 15-year low"

So, thats 1995 ish ?

In the end EA's will DEMAND that there is a crash, selling lots of homes @ 50% of their peek price is better than selling NO HOMES @ 100%

Mike

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more good news. It just keeps coming lately.

(didn't know you posted here aswell roseland)

I do... from time to time... Mostly a lurker though! :)

Yes, its interesting to see how the tone of coverage is changing in the MSM generally. Given we are meant to be in the midst of the fabled "spring bounce" its all rather downbeat lately isn't it...

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This is the same story as RB's Gloomberg thread and my Acadametrics thread.

Interesting to see this index in the MSM though, wonder if it will make it to the BBC?

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"Transactions at a 15 year low" - yep, the Home Buyers Strike just keeps getting bigger and bigger whilst supply keeps growing and growing.

The Home Buyers Strike is being matched, blow for blow, by the Home Sellers Strike.

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The Home Buyers Strike is being matched, blow for blow, by the Home Sellers Strike.

So why are prices falling on a 3m on 3m basis?

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The Home Buyers Strike is being matched, blow for blow, by the Home Sellers Strike.

Higher unemployment will break the "Home Sellers Strike", but reinforce the "Home Buyers Strike".

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"The fall in prices will be a major concern for buyers who bought towards the top of the market in 2007 and early 2008 and are now coming off fixed-rate deals. Many will be in negative equity and face problems remortgaging."

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The Home Buyers Strike is being matched, blow for blow, by the Home Sellers Strike.

Nonsense - the number of people trying to sell (i.e. have come out of the sellers strike) has increased enourmously (supply is up by over 70% compared to this time last year according to a report in the last couple of weeks) whilst demand (Home Buyers Strike) keeps collapsing more and more - ie fewer and fewer people actively looking to buy. There was a sellers strike in action last year - supply to the market was at historic lows I believe. This year, however, supply to the market has been increasing month on month to the extent whereby the number of people trying to sell is back up at long term 'normal' levels (sellers strike over but most aren't selling because so few people are trying to buy - Home Buyers Strike getting bigger). The Home Buyers Strike will decrease as prices fall.

I'm not sure which organisation reported this but a few weeks ago data was showing that supply to the market was increasing at 400% faster than the number of people regeistring as potential buyers - so, no, not a situation of a sellers strike meeting the Home Buyers Strike blow for blow.

If we take your logic then there is always a balance of Home Buyers and Sellers Strike's cancelling each other out.

Edited by Alfie Moon

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The Home Buyers Strike is being matched, blow for blow, by the Home Sellers Strike.

People can be forced into selling .... you'll never have people forced into buying.

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You haven't met my Mrs :)

Ah, very good point :lol: I'd also forgotten the pressures of my significant other.

Edited by marpate1

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You haven't met my Mrs :)

Damn beat me to it :rolleyes: Utter rubbish people absolutely can be forced into buying by similar factors as those forced into selling, the only difference is usually the urgency. i.e the couple who have a baby in a 1 bed flat can probably wait a couple of years before their situation becomes difficult. The divorcing family in their 3 bed house will want to get things settled pretty sharpish.

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Damn beat me to it :rolleyes: Utter rubbish people absolutely can be forced into buying by similar factors as those forced into selling, the only difference is usually the urgency. i.e the couple who have a baby in a 1 bed flat can probably wait a couple of years before their situation becomes difficult. The divorcing family in their 3 bed house will want to get things settled pretty sharpish.

The latest stats I could find about divorce rates:

The UK’s divorce rate has fallen in recent years, but two in five marriages are still failing according the latest statistics.

Mr Keenan believes that the general divorce rate will rocket in 2010 with the recession taking the blame.

Telegraph article about Facebook feuling divorce rates

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Damn beat me to it :rolleyes: Utter rubbish people absolutely can be forced into buying by similar factors as those forced into selling, the only difference is usually the urgency. i.e the couple who have a baby in a 1 bed flat can probably wait a couple of years before their situation becomes difficult. The divorcing family in their 3 bed house will want to get things settled pretty sharpish.

I take VMR's point and the humour along with it.

I don't agree that the number of 'forced buyers' will ever be anwhere near the number of 'forced sellers'. Most of us will have come across people who are forced sellers but how many of us come across forced buyers? People who need to find accomodation, for whatever reason, including the ones you identify above always have the option of renting, moving in with friends or family -- forced sellers, have little option but to sell.

I've met and heard of people who say - I've run out of options, I have to sell.

I don't think I've come across anyone who said - I have no other option, the only thing I can do is buy.

I note your point about a difference in terms of 'urgency', but I think there is also a very significant difference in terms of numbers involved in the forced seller/buyer populations.

Edited by Alfie Moon

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Damn beat me to it :rolleyes: Utter rubbish people absolutely can be forced into buying by similar factors as those forced into selling, the only difference is usually the urgency. i.e the couple who have a baby in a 1 bed flat can probably wait a couple of years before their situation becomes difficult. The divorcing family in their 3 bed house will want to get things settled pretty sharpish.

Neither of these examples force people to buy - they may force them to move. The example of buying someone out during a divorce is very much different to forcing a non-owner into property ownership.

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The Home Buyers Strike is being matched, blow for blow, by the Home Sellers Strike.

Not according to www.propertyactivityindex.co.uk

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Neither of these examples force people to buy - they may force them to move. The example of buying someone out during a divorce is very much different to forcing a non-owner into property ownership.

I should have qualified that to 'move' rather than buy, but seriously you have never read a thread on here that says '....my missus is really giving me earache, she wants a house and she won't let up ...' etc etc. I realise that you can't force someone into buying, but you can be coerced. Also forced sellers will always out number those being coerced/nagged etc, but to say that people are never forced to buy ? Not true.

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Wonder how low they can go. I'm not greedy. A 50% fall will do nicely.

I'm not the sort of person who wishes ill on others but there are a lot of people I know living in very nices houses, driving one perhaps two (in one case three) nice cars, holidaying frequently and generally having the best of everything. Most of these people are where they are through a willingness to take on massive personal risk and debt. They don't earn any more than me and they must look at me with my little house and crap car and wonder where I'm going wrong.

Very soon I'm hoping to show them where I've been going right.

Edited by needsleep

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'....my missus is really giving me earache, she wants a house and she won't let up ...' etc etc.

Oh, I have one of those :lol:

I realise that you can't force someone into buying, but you can be coerced. Also forced sellers will always out number those being coerced/nagged etc, but to say that people are never forced to buy ? Not true.

OK, I can accept coercion, although I don't .. if you see what I mean :)

I guess my point, had I expressed it more sensibly, is that there can be greater pressures (quantity and force) on a person to sell than you would expect on a person to buy.

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Guest BetterOffOnBenefits

Wonder how low they can go. I'm not greedy. A 50% fall will do nicely.

I'm not the sort of person who wishes ill on others but there are a lot of people I know living in very nices houses, driving one perhaps two (in one case three) nice cars, holidaying frequently and generally having the best of everything. Most of these people are where they are through a willingness to take on massive personal risk and debt. They don't earn any more than me and they must look at me with my little house and crap car and wonder where I'm going wrong.

Very soon I'm hoping to show them where I've been going right.

Post of the month

IMO The fear of unemployment is going to light the touch paper on all this

Edited by BetterOffOnBenefits

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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