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Timm

Ft Hpi Acadametrics: -0.2%mom, +9.7%yoy

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EDIT: I've just noticed RB's thread on this. Perhaps a mod could merge them:

http://www.acadametr...%20May%2010.pdf

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the widespread uncertainty that exists, the housing market dipped in May. The average price of a home in May 2010 was £220,352 - slightly down on April‟s figure and well below the peak of £231,828 in February 2008. On a regional basis, we saw price reductions in all regions, ranging from a 2% fall in the East Midlands to a 0.1% fall in Greater London.

Edited by Timm

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I never take much notice of this measure. It's normally wildly high 2%+ mom when ther others a fairly conserative.

Saying that is always good to see a negative figure :)

I agree, the main thing for me is that everything is rolling over together.

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I agree, the main thing for me is that everything is rolling over together.

After Reading the full report the last 3 months have been negative. ( I think I might be confusing it with DCLG)

It's a very bearish report in general. Transactions 18% lower than April? It's spring! I can't copy and paste from

the report on my iPhone so can someone paste the first paragraph of the housing transaction section. It's a very good read, almost slightly arousing :D

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After Reading the full report the last 3 months have been negative. ( I think I might be confusing it with DCLG)

It's a very bearish report in general. Transactions 18% lower than April? It's spring! I can't copy and paste from

the report on my iPhone so can someone paste the first paragraph of the housing transaction section. It's a very good read, almost slightly arousing :D

in HPC parlance

"I've protected myself to a level where sufficient inflation will enable me to get a semi"

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After Reading the full report the last 3 months have been negative. ( I think I might be confusing it with DCLG)

It's a very bearish report in general. Transactions 18% lower than April? It's spring! I can't copy and paste from

the report on my iPhone so can someone paste the first paragraph of the housing transaction section. It's a very good read, almost slightly arousing :D

HOUSING TRANSACTIONS
In normal circumstances, estate agents look forward to the late spring months as the number of property transactions increase from the lower levels of the winter months. For example, in 13 out of the last 15 years, the number of properties sold in May increased over the numbers sold in April, by around 10%. However, in May 2010 we estimate the number of properties sold in England and Wales to be 43,250, a decrease of 18% on the number of properties sold in April and only 46% of the long term average of 93,860 properties sold in May (1995 – 2009).
In fact, May 2010 will have the lowest transaction levels for the month over the last 15 years
.

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HOUSING TRANSACTIONS

“In normal circumstances, estate agents look forward to the late spring months as the number of property transactions increase from the lower levels of the winter months. For example, in 13 out of the last 15 years, the number of properties sold in May increased over the numbers sold in April, by around 10%. However, in May 2010 we estimate the number of properties sold in England and Wales to be 43,250, a decrease of 18% on the number of properties sold in April and only 46% of the long term average of 93,860 properties sold in May (1995 – 2009). In fact, May 2010 will have the lowest transaction levels for the month over the last 15 years.

“Comparing the last three months, February – April 2010, for which we have more definitive data, with the same period for 2009, there has been an average 28% increase in transactions. The start of 2010, therefore, looked promising in terms of a recovery in the housing market. However, this did not continue into May and we are now left with the question as to whether we will see an above average increase in sales volumes in June, as investors seek to sell before the presumed CGT rise. Sales by property investors typically make up less than 10% of the market but, if this increase in sales should happen, it would largely be in the “flats” market in urban conurbations, as the majority of buy-to-let properties comprise flats in city centres. We will wait to see if such a trend materialises.”

Transactions Per Month.JPG

post-11344-12762503324325_thumb.jpg

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Interesting article.

It clearly illustrates the differences in areas.

I am in South Wales, and in the article, I note that 3 of the areas that are showing the largest price reductions, are located in the cheapest/poorer areas of south wales. The decreases over the last 3 months, for those areas range from -2.1% to -8.3%.

however, in complete contrast, it seems to be more expensieve areas of the country eg Bath, that show the greatest increases of up to +20.6% over the same period.

I am wondering if in a big hpc, it is the cheaper areas that decrease first, and once the cash buyers and confidence start to dry up, the more expensive areas soon follow later?

LOL at the section of the article that says estate agents normally "look forward to the late spring months", because the amount of of properties sold normally increase form April figures, by aprox 10%. However, this May they have decreased by 18%, and are the lowest May transactions for over 15 years. :o

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Wow, look at the revisions!

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/AcadHPI%20Development%20of%20Forecasts%20May%2010.xls

March YoY was revised from 13.4% to 10.7% and April from 12.9% to 10.3%. And bear in mind that whilst the initial figure is mainly predictive, and based partly on the reports from the other indexes, the revisions happen as a result of the actual data that solicitors are sending into the Land Registry.

Unless this turns out to be some sort of statistical blip, this seems to indicates that the market is turning much faster than it normally does.

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Wow, look at the revisions!

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/AcadHPI%20Development%20of%20Forecasts%20May%2010.xls

March YoY was revised from 13.4% to 10.7% and April from 12.9% to 10.3%. And bear in mind that whilst the initial figure is mainly predictive, and based partly on the reports from the other indexes, the revisions happen as a result of the actual data that solicitors are sending into the Land Registry.

Unless this turns out to be some sort of statistical blip, this seems to indicates that the market is turning much faster than it normally does.

I didn't think the two months prior to this were negative the first time

round. They must have been revised down.

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I didn't think the two months prior to this were negative the first time

round. They must have been revised down.

Yes, you're right. From +0.5%mom in April and +1.1%mom in March

This is not indicating a possible top, it is a full on 3m on 3m fall. The index is now down 1.36% since February.

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Interesting article.

It clearly illustrates the differences in areas.

I am in South Wales, and in the article, I note that 3 of the areas that are showing the largest price reductions, are located in the cheapest/poorer areas of south wales. The decreases over the last 3 months, for those areas range from -2.1% to -8.3%.

however, in complete contrast, it seems to be more expensieve areas of the country eg Bath, that show the greatest increases of up to +20.6% over the same period.

I am wondering if in a big hpc, it is the cheaper areas that decrease first, and once the cash buyers and confidence start to dry up, the more expensive areas soon follow later?

LOL at the section of the article that says estate agents normally "look forward to the late spring months", because the amount of of properties sold normally increase form April figures, by aprox 10%. However, this May they have decreased by 18%, and are the lowest May transactions for over 15 years. :o

If you imagine a kind of ripple effect - that is, prices fall first in the less desirable areas but eventually the difference in price between these and prime areas mean those who may have otherwise not been interested become tempted to buy there. You simply cannot justify the price premium to live in your first choice location. So we get more demand in the less desirable areas and less in the more desirable areas = lower prices at the top end and less of a price differential.

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Yes, you're right. From +0.5%mom in April and +1.1%mom in March

This is not indicating a possible top, it is a full on 3m on 3m fall. The index is now down 1.36% since February.

march +1.1 that is one hell of a revision!

Doesn't the nationwide always spout the smoother 3 month average which is more indicative of trend. (when it suits them

anyway) well that is a very nice downward trend all of a sudden.

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march +1.1 that is one hell of a revision!

Doesn't the nationwide always spout the smoother 3 month average which is more indicative of trend. (when it suits them

anyway) well that is a very nice downward trend all of a sudden.

Yup.

Well, I could be wrong but what the hell, I'm calling it. This is it: The bull trap is over. Welcome to HPC...

And if they want to prevent further falls they are going to have to print more money again.

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Yup.

Well, I could be wrong but what the hell, I'm calling it. This is it: The bull trap is over. Welcome to HPC...

And if they want to prevent further falls they are going to have to print more money again.

I'm awaiting confirmation from a neagative nationwide figure and a further negative halifax. Then I'll be happy!

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I'm awaiting confirmation from a neagative nationwide figure and a further negative halifax. Then I'll be happy!

If you really want confirmation, then you need to wait a month until they update the FT "prediction" for this month with the "data" from the LR as it comes in. Once that happens, this index actually becomes more definative than the LR's own report!

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What makes you think they won't do exactly that?

That's why I'm still a neither...

.

Edited by Timm

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Yup.

Well, I could be wrong but what the hell, I'm calling it. This is it: The bull trap is over. Welcome to HPC...

And if they want to prevent further falls they are going to have to print more money again.

I'm not sure that will have the effect of holding house prices up, at least not in the short to mid term.

The reason we saw a recovery in prices after the initial sharp falls was down to all-out economic armageddon not materialising (fair enough, the QE helped here to keep public sector spending high) plus super-low base rates meaning v.low SVRs and relatively affordable new mortgages if you went for a tracker. It meant that a lot of people could hold on to property and there were still some new market entrants.

I think that the economy is set to get worse no matter what, the inflationary effect of continued money printing will soak up disposable income and rates will have to start to go up (even if not by as much as they should). This all points to falling house prices and it's not until inflation makes its way through to wages - likely to take quite some time - that we'll see support for higher prices.

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If you imagine a kind of ripple effect - that is, prices fall first in the less desirable areas but eventually the difference in price between these and prime areas mean those who may have otherwise not been interested become tempted to buy there. You simply cannot justify the price premium to live in your first choice location. So we get more demand in the less desirable areas and less in the more desirable areas = lower prices at the top end and less of a price differential.

Interesting...

because the figures in that report, show those ripples have well and truly started in the less desirable areas known to me.

So it looks like, it is just a matter of a short time now, until the hpc spreads to the more desirable areas.

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Well, I could be wrong but what the hell, I'm calling it. This is it: The bull trap is over. Welcome to HPC...

Maybe but I doubt we will see 2008 style falls unless interest rates rise.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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